Duke and North Carolina are renewing one of the best, storied and most-heated rivalries in all of college basketball on Saturday evening when the Tar Heels visit Cameron Indoor Stadium.
You might remember that UNC beat Duke in two out of three meetings last season – once at Cameron in the final home game for Mike Krzyzewski, and then in the rivals’ first-ever meeting in the NCAA Tournament at the Final Four in New Orleans.
This is a new chapter of the rivalry, as it’s the first contest between second-year UNC coach Hubert Davis and first-year Duke coach Jon Scheyer. Both have played in this rivalry and served as assistant coaches in it, and Davis was at the helm for those pair of Carolina wins last season.
It’s the 259th game between the Tar Heels and the Blue Devils, but – despite both teams entering the season with big expectations – this is only the third time since 1960 that the teams are meeting while both are unranked in the AP Top 25 Poll. And it’s also the first one in a while without either Coach K or Dean Smith on the sideline.
Last time North Carolina and Duke played with no Coach K or Dean Smith on the sideline? February 28, 1958 (Smith, remember, became a UNC assistant later that year). A look back at The NandO coverage (and all kinds of good deals at the Winn-Dixie). pic.twitter.com/kJp7KbTz0j
— Andrew Carter (@_andrewcarter) February 4, 2023
Oddsmakers have Duke favored in its first matchup with UNC this season. DraftKings has the Blue Devils favored by three points (-105), while BetMGM has them slightly higher at 3.5 points (-105).
Here are three enticing bets for Saturday’s Tobacco Road clash.
Take the over.
DraftKings has the over-under for this game set at 145 points. History tells us that this game will finish beyond that.
Duke and Carolina have combined for more than 145 points in each of their last 10 meetings. Even with tensions running high in New Orleans last season, the scoring total finished at 158. The closest Carolina and Duke have come to not eclipsing 145 points came in 2019 ACC Tournament clash in Charlotte, where the scoring total settled at 147 points.
This season, UNC and its opponents have gone over 145 total points in nine of the last 17 games. Duke and its opponents have gone over 145 total points in two out of the last three games.
If UNC and Duke score around their season averages on Saturday – UNC at 78.5 points per game and Duke at 72.9 – the over will hit by about six points.
“Duke-North Carolina always delivers!” @JayBilas and the GameDay crew are LIVE from Cameron Indoor at 11 AM ET 📺 pic.twitter.com/c8I0nasTYS
— College GameDay (@CollegeGameDay) February 4, 2023
Don’t count on Bacot to get bunches of boards.
Reigning ACC Player of the Year Armando Bacot is averaging 11.3 rebounds per game this season. Last month, he broke UNC’s program record for career rebounds and career double-doubles, records previously held by Tyler Hansbrough and Billy Cunningham.
DraftKings set Bacot’s over-under on total rebounds against Duke at 10.5. But it’s not safe to assume that the big man will top that.
Bacot has played against Duke seven times in his career at UNC and has played at least 24 minutes in each of those meetings. He’s only grabbed double-digit rebounds twice against Duke, and only once in Cameron Indoor Stadium. If you take away Bacot’s monster 21-rebound game against Duke in last season’s Final Four, he only averages 7.1 rebounds per game against the Blue Devils.
Also, Duke has a pretty good rebounder of its own this season that Bacot will have to battle with in freshman Kyle Filipowski. The 7-footer is averaging 9.5 rebounds per-game this year and has grabbed double-digit boards in five of his last six games.
The GameDay crew gives their "Dudes of the Day" for today's games ⬇️@PhonzESPN: Kyle Filipowski @SethOnHoops: Armando Bacot @JayBilas: Kendric Davis @ReceDavis: Zach Edey pic.twitter.com/VYgb9TJ08s
— College GameDay (@CollegeGameDay) February 4, 2023
The bet: Bacot under 10.5 rebounds (-105) and Filipowski over 9.5 rebounds (-105) at DraftKings.
Proctor can put up points.
DraftKings set the over-under for Tyrese Proctor’s points at 10.5 (+110) against UNC. The Duke freshman should be able to top that.
Proctor is averaging 8.9 points per-game this season, but has scored in double digits in five of his last six games and is averaging 12.6 points per game over that stretch.
Additionally, Duke may count on Proctor’s scoring a bit more against UNC considering that freshman Dariq Whitehead will not play.
Duke announces that Dariq Whitehead will not play tonight against UNC.
Third straight missed game for the freshman wing with the lower left leg injury (it's a sprain).
— Conor O'Neill (@ConorONeill_DI) February 4, 2023
Another reason why Proctor might have a big day: UNC is pretty mediocre at defending the 3-point line, allowing opponents to shoot 33.7% from there, which ranks 172nd in the country. Over his last six outings, Proctor is making an average of two 3-pointers per game and is shooting 33.3% from deep.
