In a historic re-election, Taiwanese voters have cast their ballots in favor of the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) for a third consecutive presidential term. The president-elect has reaffirmed the commitment to protect Taiwan from China's threats and intimidation. This outcome carries significant implications for both the United States and China.
While China had campaigned against the DPP and supported its favored candidates in the Kuomintang Party (KMT), the Democratic Progressives' victory was not a landslide. They secured 40% of the vote, while the KMT received 33% and a relatively new party advocating a middle ground obtained 26%. This outcome means that while the DPP will hold another term, they no longer have a majority in the Taiwanese legislative body and will need to collaborate with the pro-Beijing party to achieve their goals.
The re-election of the DPP is seen as a positive outcome for the Biden administration, which has been strengthening ties with Taiwan. However, it may also raise tensions with China, as evidenced by the past visits of congressional leaders that angered Beijing. It remains to be seen how the United States will navigate this delicate situation. Nevertheless, the Biden administration is expected to maintain robust ties with Taiwan, with a delegation comprising retired senior officials planning a visit.
Taiwanese citizens anticipate continued harassment from China, which has already escalated activities such as jet patrols around the island and increased maritime presence. These actions have put strain on Taiwanese fighter pilots and pose a potential risk of escalating tensions. China has long set its sights on the reunification with Taiwan, but it is expected to pursue a slow and steady campaign instead of an immediate grab for power.
In their attempts to influence the election, China employed tactics including spreading disinformation and creating fake videos. They openly campaigned against Vice President Lai, who will assume the presidency, labeling him a 'troublemaker.' Lai, however, has espoused a moderate stance, stating that Taiwan is content as it is and does not need to declare independence. The Taiwanese people, like their American counterparts, prioritize stability and economic prosperity, which likely influenced their support for a leader who can maintain a steady hand while avoiding provocation towards Beijing.
While the re-election of the DPP represents a significant moment in Taiwanese politics, it is crucial to recognize the complex dynamics at play. The continued support of the United States, coupled with China's long-term ambitions, suggests that the relationship between Taiwan, the U.S., and China will remain a sensitive and potentially volatile issue in the years to come.
