Nancy Pelosi's brief visit to Taiwan this week caused great if somewhat confected anger in Beijing, but the Chinese Communist regime was not her main target. The Speaker of the House of Representatives has long supported Taiwan, and she will be aware that both the government and the people are in need of some reassurance at the moment.
The likelihood of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan is rising, yet the prospect of direct US military support in that event is falling. Both trends are driven by the shifting strategic balance in the Western Pacific, where China is approaching the status of "near-peer adversary", able to challenge US naval and air operations around Taiwan with some prospect of success.
