China's massive live-fire military exercises this week in the air and seas around Taiwan come as the calendar flips one year closer to a date that looms larger for Pentagon planners than almost any other.
Why it matters: The U.S. military has been operating for the past five years under the assumption that the Chinese military is preparing to take Taiwan by force as soon as 2027.
- Tick, tock. Tick, tock.
The big picture: The U.S. has built out bases in the Pacific, poured billions into domestic semiconductor manufacturing, shipped arms to Taipei and shuffled its own military assets — all with an eye on a potential war over the self-governing island.
- But the sense of urgency has not always matched the tightening timeline — now down to just a single year.
Driving the news: In a sign that could be changing, the Trump administration announced the largest-ever arms sale ($11.1 billion) for Taiwan this month.
- Then on Monday, Beijing launched drills that its military described as a "stern warning" to separatists. They involve simulated aerial strikes, live-fire exercises by the navy, and other elements designed to emphasize China's ability to surround and conquer the island.
- While the exercises were likely pre-planned, the arms deal announcement infuriated Beijing. A Chinese embassy spokesperson told Axios such moves "risk turning Taiwan into a powder keg" and accelerating the possibility of conflict in the Taiwan Strait.
Breaking it down: The arms package, which also triggered retaliatory sanctions from China, includes HIMARS rocket systems and howitzers, anti-tank missiles and attack drones.
- But the U.S. industrial base is struggling to keep pace with demand, both at home and for friends like Taiwan. (Taipei will not receive all the F-16V fighter jets it purchased from the U.S. by the end of 2026, as originally promised.)
- "We're not punching out ships any faster. Submarines aren't getting submerged into the ocean any faster. There's a real convergence of issues coming in 2027 as we think about whether or not we're going to be prepared," says Mike Kuiken, a Hoover fellow and member of the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission.
- Meanwhile, the U.S. is constructing several airstrips, ports and bases on Pacific islands in preparation for a potential conflict with China. That work, though, is largely in its early stages and happening at a peacetime pace, says Ely Ratner, the assistant secretary of defense for Indo-Pacific security affairs in the Biden administration.
Flashback: The period leading up to a potential Chinese move on Taiwan is often called "the Davidson window," based on comments in 2021 by the-then leader of U.S. Indo-Pacific Command. Adm. Philip Davidson believed China wanted to cement that capability "in the next six years."
- Two years later, then-CIA Director Bill Burns said intelligence showed Chinese President Xi Jinping had "instructed the People's Liberation Army to be ready by 2027 to conduct a successful invasion."
- Despite the longstanding U.S. policy of "strategic ambiguity," former President Biden said several times that the U.S. would defend Taiwan in the event of an invasion.
- President Trump hasn't said what he'd would do, though he recently told Japan's prime minister to back off her own hawkish statements about Taiwan. He has also occasionally griped that Taiwan "stole our chip business."
Threat level: Taiwan's role as the epicenter of chip manufacturing means the possibility of conflict there has massive implications for the global economy.
- The U.S. has made huge investments in domestic chip manufacturing with the 2027 timeline in mind, says Randy Schriver, chairman of the Institute for Indo-Pacific Security and an assistant secretary of defense in the first Trump administration.
Reality check: Taiwan is a tough target, even for China's powerful military. It's insulated by rough seas, mountainous terrain and well-armed forces, plus the possibility that partners like Japan and, in particular, the U.S. would intervene on its behalf.
- U.S. intelligence suggests that Xi wants to be ready for an invasion by 2027, not necessarily to order one on such an expedited timeline.
- While taking the self-governing island — which Beijing views as a renegade province — is a legacy issue for Xi, many analysts believe he thinks it can be accomplished peacefully.
- Beijing has prepared for other scenarios short of an all-out invasion, such as a blockade. The U.S. also has an array of options in the event of a conflict — from a Ukraine-style arms and intelligence approach, to a crush of air and sea drones, to thousands of American boots on the ground.
What they're saying: Chinese embassy spokesperson Liu Pengyu told Axios that the U.S. arms sale announcement "grossly violates the one-China principle and the three China-U.S. joint communiqués, infringes on China's sovereignty, security and territorial integrity, undermines peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait, and sends a gravely wrong signal to 'Taiwan independence' separatist forces."
- "The Taiwan question is at the core of China's core interests, and is the first red line that must not be crossed in China-U.S. relations," Liu added.
- A spokesperson for Taipei's de facto embassy in Washington said Taiwan is committed to maintaining the status quo in the Taiwan Strait. But "facing mounting aggressive acts from the other side, President Lai has said that Taiwan must make the best possible preparations for worst-case scenarios and be ready, regardless of the [Chinese military's] timeline," they added.
- As such, Taiwan is taking steps like increasing defense spending to 3% of GDP, investing in asymmetric capabilities, and holding urban resilience exercises, the spokesperson said.
- Trump, for his part, said Monday that he wasn't worried China's latest drills foreshadow a decision from Xi to invade. "I don't believe he's going to be doing it."
Go deeper: Crash in South China Sea underscores "incredibly tense" situation
