As predicted, Tadej Pogačar leads the Giro d’Italia by several minutes and it already seems a foregone conclusion that the maglia rosa will be on his shoulders when the peloton reaches Rome in two weeks time.
No one will be surprised if Pogačar wins another three or four stages and therefore the sense of total dominance and the comparisons to Eddy Merckx have begun. Pogačar himself has mentioned the greatest cyclist of all time as an example to surpass, so it’s rather surprising that his critics expect the Slovenian champion to forgo the chance of victory when possible.
Most people who have raced a bike wouldn’t give up on a chance of victory because they know how hard and usually rare it is to win.
Therefore I don’t get why suddenly Tadej Pogačar is the new Grand Tour Cannibal and so is making the Giro d’Italia GC battle boring. It seems a rather derogatory description.
He is more than just a cannibal. He turns up on the crucial days and wins in a dominant manner but is also quite willing to observe and follow others and then beat them in a sprint. He is keen to pay back his teammates when they work hard for him and even lead out his sprinter Juan Sebastián Molano, who also does a lot of the early work on other stages. Pogačar is as generous with his teammates as he is dominant with his rivals.
Now that might be annoying to some because they kind of know the result that’s coming but it’s a bit much to suggest it’s boring, that the same guy wins and he ought to let someone else have a victory now and then.
Of course, we’ve been spoiled in recent years by the battle for victory in the Grand Tours being close, with the favourites exchanging blows on the toughest stages and the suspense being drawn out to the final stages. Well, I don’t think we are going to see that in this Giro because quite clearly the UAE Team Emirates leader is a level above his rivals. Barring a major upset there isn’t much they can do about it. You can try attacking him with multiple options, tactics that intimidate and test the squad around him but the strongest rider almost always wins. It’s the nature of Grand Tour racing.
How to race for the podium
Pogačar is out climbing the other GC contenders, out time trialling them, out sprinting them and has a team which will bury themselves for him. With his ability to constantly be in the right place in the peloton and his ambition to be compared to Merckx, it all means his rivals have lowered their ambitions to fight for the remaining places on the final podium.
After dominating the first week of the Giro d'Italia, Pogačar will be able to control his rivals and the race In the second and third week. He is the ringmaster, in control of the outcome of his own race and that of his rivals fighting for the podium. Pogačar can attack in the mountains and then decide who he works to influence who gains time and so who finishes on the podium. All his rivals can do is hope they have the ability to go with him without destroying themselves, all they can do is stay out of trouble and try to recover.
Recovery is something else Pogačar does superbly and so often, just like Merckx did.
That he won the time trial and then the mountain top finish the next day is no fluke. That makes me wonder if there’s not some value for one of the GC riders to race for the podium by riding next Saturday's time trial a lot more conservatively, not go too deep, and then try to go with Pogačar the next day when it’s a big day in the mountains. It could be the better podium strategy. They might lose a minute or so more in the Lake Garda time trial but on the climbs there’s ample opportunity to recoup that loss and more if they can stay with Pogačar as long as possible.
Pogačar is dominating but in a way that is very different compared to other riders who have won multiple Grand Tours. He looks happy and seems to enjoy racing, even if the post-stage obligations are starting to test his patience.
There are no outward signs he needs to dominate his rivals like Merckx or crush them with aggression like Hinault did. He doesn’t only rely on his time trial ability or his climbing prowess to make the difference, he is multi-talented. He looks like he has fun even if he doesn’t win. He is as dominant as Merckx and Hinault, but racing with a smile.
We as fans ought to enjoy watching a master in action and appreciating the artistry for what it is. Geraint Thomas seems to occasionally lose his smile as Pogačar dominates but I’m sure even he sees greatness at work.
What we can expect from week two of the Giro
When the Giro heads up the Adriatic coast during the week, the main interest is going to be the sprinters versus the breakaways.
As we’ve already seen, some days Jonathan Milan and the other sprinters will have their say and some days someone will steal their glory from the break. Cofidis won a stage after all.
Lidl-Trek, Alpecin Deceuninck and Soudal Quick-Step will play poker to see who chases the escapees. There’ll be limited help from Visma-Lease a bike as they’ve got Cian Uijtdebroeks to look after and so the Dutch team won’t help in the chase and then Olav Kooij wins again, the other teams will sit back too, only increasing the chances of the long-range attacks succeeding.
If Caleb Ewan and Fabio Jakobsen improve enough to become properly involved in the sprints, then the sprint finishes are going to be even more hectic, becoming the alternative source of daily entertainment to Pogačar and UAE Team Emirates control of the pink jersey.
I think that Ineos Grenadiers will save Filippo Ganna for the stage 16 time trial and try to place Magnus Sheffield and especially Jhonatan Navràez in the attacks this week. It’s good to see the British team have two plans that are working: GC with Thomas and individual freedoms for the others some days. I’m sure other teams will divide their strategies, especially knowing that Pogačar is in charge but will not try to control every stage between Pompei and Rome.
There will be chances for the attackers, the opportunities and the brave.
For that reason, my tip for entertainer of the second week is Julian Alaphilippe. He likes to put on a show and he’s getting better. Pogačar is in control of the Giro d’Italia but we still have riders like Alaphilippe.
