The Syrian army has withdrawn from much of southern Syria, leaving areas, including two provincial capitals, under the control of opposition fighters. The redeployment from Daraa and Sweida provinces coincided with the military sending reinforcements to defend the central city of Homs as insurgents approached its outskirts.
This shift marks a significant turn of events for Syrian President Bashar Assad, who now finds himself largely isolated as his allies are preoccupied with other conflicts. Russia is engaged in the war in Ukraine, while Lebanon's Hezbollah has been weakened by a yearlong conflict with Israel. Iran's proxies in the region have also been degraded by Israeli airstrikes.
Reports indicate that Iran's military advisers have begun leaving Syria, with Iran-backed fighters from Afghanistan and Pakistan retreating to central Syria. The offensive, led by the jihadi group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, has seen the capture of Aleppo and Hama, Syria's largest and fourth-largest cities, respectively.
The Syrian army has withdrawn from much of the southern provinces, focusing on setting up a defensive belt in the area to protect Damascus from the south. The insurgents' potential capture of Homs could sever the link between Damascus and the coastal region where Assad enjoys significant support.
Foreign ministers of Iran, Russia, and Turkey are set to meet in Qatar to discuss the situation in Syria. Turkey, a key supporter of the rebels, has criticized Assad for not addressing the country's underlying issues during the lull in fighting in recent years.
With the fall of Daraa and Sweida, Syrian government forces now control five provincial capitals, including Damascus, Homs, and Quneitra, as well as Latakia and Tartus on the Mediterranean coast. Latakia hosts a major Russian air base, while Tartus is home to the only Russian naval base outside the former Soviet Union.
Meanwhile, U.S.-backed fighters of the Syrian Democratic Forces have captured parts of Deir el-Zour province, dealing a blow to Iran's influence in the region. The capture of key border crossings by various factions has limited the Syrian government's external access, with the Masnaa border crossing with Lebanon now serving as its sole gateway to the outside world.
