Supermaxi Andoo Comanche is leading a closely bunched pack of supermaxis in the Sydney to Hobart yacht race, as the fleet heads south on day one of the contest's 77th edition.
Northerly winds helped the fleet, particularly the supermaxis, amid predictions the leaders may have supporting winds all the way to Hobart.
Leading into the traditional Boxing Day start, the Sydney to Hobart was seen as a race in four to be first to the finish — Andoo Comanche, last year's line honours winner Black Jack, Law Connect and Hamilton Island Wild Oats.
Big crowds were on hand on Sydney Harbour for the 1pm AEDT start — but the opening exchanges saw chaos reign, amid near-misses, protests and penalties for two of the big four.
Hamilton Island Wild Oats skipper Mark Richards let loose a number of audible obscenities on the TV coverage, as he and his crew tried to navigate their way to the Sydney Heads and out into the ocean for the trip south.
Race favourite Andoo Comanche had a poor start, not getting enough clear wind to move ahead of its rivals, and then being jammed by other craft making it difficult to do the required tacking down the harbour.
Skipper and owner John Winning Jr and sailing master Iain Murray were not happy, and even less so when they made it to the first turning mark but misjudged the turn and hit the mark.
They had to do a penalty turn, losing ground on their rivals. However Andoo Comanche raised a protest flag, claiming they had been infringed by another boat.
On board Hamilton Island Wild Oats, a spirited conversation took place between skipper Mark Richards and navigator Stan Honey, with suggestions the boat may have infringed rejected by Richards.
Finally Richards relented, ordering crew to "Deploy the jib! Deploy the jib!" before completing a 720-degree turn.
At one point Black Jack cut back across two of its rivals, running a fine line between LawConnect and Hamilton Island Wild Oats.
After the frantic start, LawConnect took the lead from Black Jack, with a gap to the two boats that had done penalty turns.
As the leaders got out into the ocean to turn south, LawConnect held the lead for some time before Andoo Comanche picked up some solid winds further out from shore and hit the front, 90 minutes into the race.
For much of the afternoon, Andoo Comanche then maintained and extended its lead over LawConnect.
As of 9:20pm AEDT, Andoo Comanche led by 4.6 nautical miles (about 8.5 kilometres) over LawConnect, with Black Jack in third and Hamilton Island Wild Oats in fourth. There were 8.7 nautical miles covering first to fourth.
Andoo Comanche is close to its own record pace, which was set in 2017.
The record is one day, nine hours, 15 minutes, 24 seconds.
On the race website, the estimated time of arrival for Andoo Comanche as of 9:20pm AEDT is 12:38am and 44 seconds AEDT just past midnight on Thursday morning — which would fall short of the existing mark by about two hours.
In the race for overall honours, NSW boat Celestial — which was in line to win overall last year before being demoted on protest — leads from New Zealand boat Caro, and American entry Warrior Won.
Only two of the 109 entries in the race have retired so far. The two-handed boat Avalanche retired early in the race, with a reported damaged bowsprit, while Yeah Baby retired early on Monday evening.
Look back at how the race unfolded on Monday on our blog.
Key events
Live updates
That's where we'll leave it
By Andrew McGarry
It's been an eventful first six hours of this year's Sydney to Hobart, with protests, near misses and a fast start that leaves Andoo Comanche in pole position for line honours and a possible race record.
But don't rule out its rival supermaxis - LawConnect, Hamilton Island Wild Oats and Black Jack!
The wrap of the day's racing will be live shortly. Keep an eye on this article for any major updates during the evening and there will be new stories tomorrow to keep track of the leaders as they get closer to Hobart.
Thanks to everyone for joining us today on the blog - from myself, Andrew McGarry, have a good evening.
Change in the placings
By Andrew McGarry
The order of the top boats on the water has not changed for some time, but now as we get towards the evening, there is one change we can report.
Hamilton Island Wild Oats is still getting a decent wind as it sits closest to the shore of the four leaders.
The boat has moved into third spot, passing Black Jack.
Hamilton Island Wild Oats is seven nautical miles from the leader, going at 22.3 knots. Black Jack (20.4 knots) is now 8.2 nautical miles from the leader.
An example of the effect handicap has on the race for overall honours
By Andrew McGarry
So when we talk about overall honours, we also call it handicap honours. That is because the organisers use a "handicap" - similar to horse-racing but not based on weight carried - to make the race fair between boats of different sizes.
As said previously, as of now, Andoo Comanche is on course to break its own race record from 2017.
However, when you look at the leaderboard for overall honours, you see why it is hard for the supermaxis to win overall.
The leader, Celestial, is predicted to cross the line on Wednesday morning at about 7:33am AEDT. When the handicap of 1.390 is applied, Celestial's corrected arrival time is for 12:09:48am on the Thursday (i.e) just after midnight.
If we look at Andoo Comanche, the predicted arrival time (which changes constantly) is now 7:53:17pm AEDT tomorrow night.
Because of its size, Andoo Comanche has a handicap of 2.047 - on corrected time, it's expected finish time is 4:13:40am AEDT on December 29, more than 32 hours after it would physically finish the race.
Right now, Andoo Comanche is 14th for overall honours. We will see if the northerly winds that are due to help the supermaxis help move the boat up the list as the race goes on.
Andoo Comanche's lead increases - a race record could be on the cards!
By Andrew McGarry
Andoo Comanche is keeping up a solid speed on the way south, with the supermaxi still going at 25.4 knots, situated 32 nautical miles south-east of Jervis Bay - that's a lead of 5.5 nautical miles over LawConnect.
The interesting statistic right now is the estimated time of arrival - according to the race website, Andoo Comanche is due to come into Hobart at 7:52pm and 55 seconds AEDT tomorrow night.
If that happens, then the John Winning Jr-owned boat would smash the race record by more than two hours!
As things stand, LawConnect is estimated to finish at 10:16:07pm AEDT - 43 seconds outside the existing record of Comanche.
A word of caution, however. There is NO guarantee that winds will stay this strong all the way, and if there are flat spots then that estimated finish time will blow out.
Plus, of course, there is no idea what the Derwent will have in store. If the winds die down in the river tomorrow evening, then it may not matter how quickly the boats get down there.
A clip of LawConnect in the Sydney to Hobart
By Andrew McGarry
This article contains content that is not available.
LawConnect has had a good day so far, taking the lead for a section of the afternoon before giving up the top spot to Andoo Comanche.
The boat's team have released a clip of them in action on the harbour.
You can also follow them in action on the water with their livestream here.
Still a clear top four at the top
By Andrew McGarry
Back to line honours again, and the top four is clear, four hours into the race.
As the leaders approach Jervis Bay, Andoo Comanche leads by four nautical miles from LawConnect, then Black Jack trails the leader by 6.2 nautical miles, and Hamilton Island Wild Oats is fourth, 6.5 nautical miles back.
There is a gap of more than seven nautical miles from Wild Oats to the rest of the fleet, led by Stefan Racing, with Willow just behind further out from shore.
An early update on the race for overall honours
By Andrew McGarry
While the focus is on the four at the front, let's take a quick look at the race for the overall win.
As we said previously, the weather may well affect this more than most years. If it's true that the top four could make it to Hobart (or at least the Derwent) on just one set of northerly winds, while the smaller boats could be hit by one or two changes on the way south, then even the handicap may not be enough to even things out.
As of the latest update at 4:30pm AEDT, the American-owned Warrior Won is 21 nautical miles east of Kiama, and is going at 17.7 knots.
It's estimated finish on corrected time is 3:26:38am (AEDT).
It's nearest competitor is New Zealand boat Caro, which is at the same spot - 21 nautical miles east of Kiama - but whose estimated finish is five minutes 26 seconds behind Warrior Won.
In third is the NSW boat Gweilo, a further two minutes 45 seconds behind on estimated time.
Next is Celestial - which won overall line honours before being demoted on protest.
As they say in the (bluewater) classics, this is VERY early days, and will change a fair bit depending on events, the weather patterns and how clear a run the big four get.
Andoo Comanche is ripping along
By Andrew McGarry
Things are going well on board the leader Andoo Comanche.
The supermaxi is passing Nowra and has picked up speed again, to be running at 28.4 knots (52.6 kmh).
Clearly the further out you go, the better the wind - at least for them.
The winds are stronger again, with all three of Comanche's rivals going at a minimum of 22 knots (40.7 kmh).
One boat out of the race so far
By Andrew McGarry
We have confirmation that the two-handed boat Avalanche is the first entry out of this year's Sydney to Hobart.
It is understood that the James Murchison-owned Hick 40 boat went back to port with a damaged bow sprit.
It is the second time that the boat has been forced to retire from the race - in 2015 Avalanche was launched and contested the race, before retiring with hull damage.
Decent winds predicted for tomorrow evening
By Andrew McGarry
It's early days ... but having a look on Windy, the predictions are for 40 to 50km an hour northerly winds blowing the fleet due south through late tomorrow afternoon into the evening and night, which means if it's not going to be a race record, it might not be far off it.
The idea of the leaders being downwind the whole way to the Iron Pot will do their chances no harm - the big question is, what will the River Derwent have in store? Many a contender has slowed down or come to a standstill and watched their chances go out the window in the final stages.
We will have to wait and see.
The leaders have passed Wollongong
By Andrew McGarry
The head of the fleet is going past Port Kembla, two and a half hours after the start.
Andoo Comanche is still getting the best of the wind, furthest out from shore. The leader is picking up speed and going at 24.5 knots, extending the lead over Law Connect to 2.1 nautical miles.
Black Jack is going at 20 knots and is 3.2 nautical miles back, while Hamilton Island Wild Oats is 4.0 nautical miles back, at 21 knots.
Will this be a race of two races?
By Andrew McGarry
As we settle in for the run down the coast, the question is what the weather will do and how it will affect the fleet.
So far, the winds are solid but not spectacular. The leading four boats are all travelling at between 19 and 21.5 knots (35.2 - 39.8 kmh).
The expectation is that the winds will remain northerly (i.e. pushing the boats south towards Hobart) and will increase in strength as the afternoon goes on.
The overall forecast is that the winds will stay northerly all the way to Hobart - at least for the leading bunch of boats.
The first real change will come on Wednesday, when a trough is expected to shift the winds to southerly, making it harder for boats to keep speed up.
By the time that trough comes, however, the leading chances may well have finished the race!
Just remember, the race record is one day, nine hours, 15 minutes and 24 seconds - so to set a new mark, boats will have to reach Hobart before 10:15pm AEDT tomorrow night.
It's getting tasty up the front
By Andrew McGarry
We are getting a sense of the different plans at play for the leading chances as we head towards the two-hour mark.
There is an arrayed line of four, outside to inside (out to sea to closest to shore).
Andoo Comanche leads on the wide line, with just under 600 nautical miles to go to the finish.
Inside her and a little further astern is LawConnect, which is still travelling well, 0.7 nautical miles behind.
Next is Black Jack, a little further in to shore and 1.5 nautical miles behind.
In fourth is Hamilton Island Wild Oats, but after all the swearing and penalties and lost ground earlier, Mark Richards and his crew are hitting the mark now. The boat is picking up speed on an inside line, and is going at 19.2 knots, just 2.3 nautical miles behind.
Some photographers will do ANYTHING for a Sydney to Hobart picture
By Andrew McGarry
There are camera crews on board various boats in the harbour for the start of the race, and they then have to make a hasty exit - unless they want to take the long route to Hobart!
But it's not just the TV folks who brave the water. Getty Images' Mark Evans got up close and personal to the water to get this amazing shot of Stefan Racing. Hopefully he's dry now...
We have a battle at the top!
By Andrew McGarry
With the leaders well and truly out in the open going down the coast, the supermaxis are able to take advantage of the winds from the north.
Andoo Comanche has found its sea-legs, so to speak, and is absolutely flying! Right now the John Winning Jr-owned entry is the furthest out to sea, going at just under 25 knots.
Comanche has caught up with LawConnect and is officially level, but has a 3.9 knot wind advantage over its rival.
A little further back is last year's line honours winner Black Jack, travelling at 20.1 knots. Hamilton Island Wild Oats is sticking closer to shore, but isn't getting the big wind. Wild Oats is 1.6 nautical miles behind the two leaders, going at 17.9 knots.
Get ready, this could be a four-way race all the way down the coast!
The rest of the top 10
By Andrew McGarry
We've been focused on the big four, because they are the ones likely to fight it out for line honours.
But the rest of the top 10 has some interesting names there.
In fifth is the Botin 80 boats Stefan Racing, owned and skippered by Grant Wharington.
Next is the Reichel Pugh Maxi 72 URM Group, followed by Willow, whose best finish was fourth for line honours in 2016.
Then we have Moneypenny, owned and skippered by Sean Langman, and then Tasmanian boat Alive, which won the race overall in 2018. Rounding out the top 10 is Whisper, owned by Phillip Turner and skippered by Duncan Hine.
What's the wind doing?
By Andrew McGarry
At the moment, the winds seem to be northerly / north-easterly, which will assist the boats in going down the coast.
The forecast says the leaders could well get all the way to Hobart with helping winds, which is why the tip is that the race record could be in danger.
The record is held by Comanche - in 2017 the race was won in one day, nine hours, 15 minutes and 24 seconds.
Just to show you how things can change, depending on the winds ... last year, Black Jack took line honours, crossing the line in two days, 12 hours, 37 minutes and 17 seconds.
LawConnect still the one to catch
By Andrew McGarry
LawConnect is going nicely in the lead, the supermaxi has clear air in front.
Black Jack is second, and then there is a fair gap back to the other two leaders. Wild Oats is sticking closer to the coast, while Andoo Comanche is further out to sea in search of the best wind.
