The first two months of 2026 have brought a sharp rise in the number of people dying while attempting to reach Europe by sea, despite a drop in overall crossings. Experts say a combination of weather patterns, evolving smuggling tactics and increasingly restrictive border policies is making the already hazardous route across the Mediterranean even more dangerous.
According to the latest data from the International Organisation for Migration, at least 655 people died or went missing in the Mediterranean in January and February – more than double the 287 recorded during the same period in 2025.
The increase comes even as European border agency Frontex reports 52 percent fewer irregular crossing attempts.
Experts say there is no single explanation. Frontex attributed the surge in deaths in part to extreme weather, including Cyclone Harry, which swept across the Mediterranean in mid-February. Storms and strong currents created hazardous conditions that many small vessels were ill-equipped to withstand, the agency said.
Frontex also pointed to the continued use of flimsy boats by smuggling networks, saying that traffickers are sending migrants to sea in vessels unfit for long or rough journeys.
Shifting routes
Arnaud Banos, a migration specialist at France’s National Centre for Scientific Research (CNRS), argues that tighter border controls may be heightening the risks for migrants.
"The more we apply pressure to prevent departures, the more we create ideal conditions for smugglers," he told news agency AFP.
While Italy has signed agreements with North African countries Tunisia and Libya to prevent boats setting sail, Banos explained, smuggling networks are adapting by launching boats from more remote locations. That has made journeys longer and more exposed to wind and currents, as well as reducing the chances of boats being spotted by rescue teams.
Yet with land routes into Europe through the Balkans now largely closed, many migrants see the Mediterranean as their only option, according to Banos.
"The more we say we want to secure our borders for humanitarian reasons, the more we increase the danger," he said. "It’s an endless loop."
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Pressure on rescue operations
Humanitarian organisations working in the Mediterranean say operational constraints are also contributing to the rising death toll. NGOs have long accused European authorities of placing bureaucratic and logistical hurdles in the way of rescue missions.
Giulia Messmer, a spokesperson for German charity Sea-Watch, said Italian authorities instructed its rescue vessels to dock at ports hundreds of kilometres away after picking up people at sea.
“It means we are actively forced to ignore other distress cases in the vicinity,” she said, arguing that such practices ran counter to international maritime law.
Messmer called for a coordinated European search-and-rescue programme.
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Charities also say a lack of legal routes into Europe is pushing more people towards dangerous crossings.
Over the past decade, countries that once accepted large numbers of refugees have tightened entry rules. Germany has restricted family reunification and citizenship, while the United Kingdom has ended study visas for several nationalities, including Afghans and Sudanese, amid a rise in the number of people claiming asylum.
"What Frontex doesn't say is that these criminal networks step in where there is a demand, because living conditions are so terrible in the countries of origin and there are no legal means to come," anthropologist Filippo Furri told AFP.
Furri also warned that official figures likely underestimate the death toll, as European agencies count arrivals rather than departures.
(with newswires)
