Support for Welsh independence has fallen back to its lowest level in three years, a St David's Day poll for Wales carried out by pollsters YouGov has shown.
A poll of more than 1,000 people suggests that just 18% said they would vote for Wales to be an independent country if a referendum was held tomorrow. Our question was 'Should Wales be an independence country'. The last time support for independence was this low was in 2019.
However the cause of the drop in independence does not appear to be a significant increase in support for staying the union. The YouGov poll shows the percentage of people saying they would vote to stay in the UK is fairly flat at 55%. In contrast the change seems to be driven by an increasing number of people saying they don't know how they would vote, which has risen to 16%. Just 4% wouldn't say.
The trend seen in Wales mirrors what has been seen in Scotland in the last 12 months. Support for independence in polls peaked at over 50% in Scotland in November and December last year but has fallen back heavily to 39% in the most recent poll carried out last month.
This chart shows how support for independence has appeared to wane in the most recent year but remains well above levels seen a decade ago
Our poll of 1,083 adults carried out between February 17 and 23 shows that people over the age of 65 are the least likely to vote for independence if there was a referendum tomorrow. Just 12% of pensioners would vote to leave the UK compared to around 20% in all younger age groups.
However the poll shows that beneath the headline yes and no findings, support for remaining in the union is much softer among people aged 16-24 and 25 to 49 than it is in the two older age groups above 50. Far higher percentages of people in the younger age groups said they didn't know, would not vote or refused to say than in the older age groups, while the rate of people people outright saying they would vote to stay in the UK rose with age.
There are also interesting findings in our poll on where in Wales people were most likely to say that they would vote for independence. Support for Wales finding a new path outside the UK was highest in Cardiff and the south central Wales region at 22%. In the North and North West regions, it was exactly in line with the Welsh overall finding of 18%, while support for independence was lowest in the South East and South West regions at 14% and 15% respectively.
The poll findings show the challenge for the independence movement in Wales today with the first All Under One Banner Cymru (AUOB Cymru) march of the year planned for Swansea on May 20. Is the dip in support for independence in Wales and Scotland just a stutter caused by economic concerns and controversies like that over gender identity reforms in Scotland and the stepping down of Nicola Sturgeon? Or will it be difficult for the campaign to recover the high watermark for independence seen in the last 12 months amid what may turn out to have been a unique set of circumstances?
Why has support for Welsh independence fallen?
To understand why support for indy has waned you first need to understand why it rose in the first place. There were three key drivers of the post 2016 boom in indy’s popularity. Brexit, Covid and a perceived inability to prevent Tory majorities in Westminster.
The Brexit vote in 2016 was literally the catalyst for YesCymru, the group that should take much of the credit for catapulting independence into the mainstream public consciousness, being formed. The desire to regain European citizenship was a massive motivator for many, many people who turned towards independence after 2016. The reality that Wales actually voted to leave and the fact an independent Wales would be unlikely to join the EU anyway are explored in further detail here.
Covid drove independence both in the fact that the Welsh Government were visibly making decisions that affected people's lives (this was the first time many people even knew who the First Minister was) and the Johnson-led administration's myriad of scandals over PPE, testing and not extending furlough for Wales’ firebreak lockdown. This triggered the largest ever rise in YesCymru membership. In Mark Drakeford, Wales had a political figurehead for the first time, who was on a near daily basis making very public decisions that directly impacted the life of people in Wales. Add to this the fact he often deliberately contrasted himself and the Welsh Government with Boris Johnson and Westminster, for the first time in many people’s minds Wales could be different, although this isn’t to say everyone liked what they saw.
The final driver, the perception that there would be indefinite Conservative Prime Ministers in Downing Street, is often cited as a rationale behind people who have recently come to independence (more seasoned indy campaigners are far more likely to quote control over economic levers as their primary motivator). Independence has, rightly or wrongly, been identified by many as the most likely way to have a government that is more reflective of Wales’ more left leaning political outlook.
All of these motivators of indy have diminished of late. Brexit, despite apparently being “done” for about three years, is still causing real harm to the UK economy but it isn’t dominating the news and political agenda like it was in 2016-19. Though many people on both sides still feel deeply aggrieved by the referendum result and subsequent events, it doesn’t occupy the minds of people as much given the cost of living crisis. Add to that general Brexit fatigue and signals Rishi Sunak may seek closer ties with Brussels and the issue simply isn't pushing people down the indy route as much as it did. .
Perhaps the thing that has triggered the fall in Welsh indy support most was also revealed in WalesOnline and YouGov’s poll. That is the fact that the Tories are facing near total wipeout in Wales at the next general election and fewer than 100 MPs across the whole of the UK. The same poll suggested that 53% of people voting in Wales at the next general election would vote Labour. You are unlikely to want to break up a country where the party you voted for is odds on to be in power.
Should the independence side despair?
Clearly if you are a supporter of independence in Wales you would rather not see a substantial fall in support for indy. However, there are reasons for positivity and hope if you desire to see Cymru go its own way.
The first is to simply take stock of how far the independence movement has come in a very short space of time. In 2015, independence was anything but a mainstream issue in Wales. Fast forward eight years and it really is.
“Before 2017, the independence question would have been asked once a year on a poll,” said YesCymru chief executive Gwern Gwynfil. “But now every poll about Wales will ask the independent independence question. This is about 8-10 every single year. So there's a lot more data and there's a lot more awareness.”
Perhaps a good example of this progress is the fact that in April, YesCymru will be holding a debate about Welsh independence in Bridgend (you can see more about this here). What is notable about this is not the fact the debate is happening, but who is attending. On the “yes” side is Gwern Gwynfil and Plaid Cymru MS Luke Fletcher and on the no/union side is Labour MS Hefin David and Tory MS Tom Giffard. The fact that politicians from both Labour and the Conservatives are willing to put themselves forward to have these debates reflects that the issue is no longer something the main parties can afford to ignore, it must be addressed. This is a massive step forward for the independence movement.
Plaid leader Adam Price told WalesOnline: “In the words of the Independent Commission on the Constitutional Future of Wales, independence is 'a viable option'. I think it's, it's hard to overestimate the actual importance of that statement from a broad based publicly established body with a range of views. For them to say it is a viable option I think that says something about how far we've come.”
So what next for the independence movement?
People senior within the indy movement see the post Brexit, post pandemic and possibly post Tory-run UK as the next chapter in the campaign. The drive to put independence into the public consciousness has widely been achieved. The next stage is a maturing process. It is about building support from the members of the public regardless of who's in Downing Street, a base that actually sees the claimed merits of indy in its own right. It's not just “look how bad things are in Westminster we need to get out of here”.
“The challenge is to start the discussion and raise awareness amongst the broad swathes of the population, probably more than 50%, who are completely politically disengaged in a general sense,” said Gwern Gwynfil. “They're not only disengaged in that sense, they're also so lacking in confidence when it comes to politics, that they will actively steer away from anything political because of the hopelessness that comes with any political engagement, particularly in Wales.
“I think that if we can find a way to open that door as YesCymru, then we've got a great in there, because part of the reason that they're disengaged is because politics is ineffectual and pointless in Wales as whatever happens in Wales doesn't really impact the reality for the people of Wales, because everything comes from Westminster. And Westminster is just not interested in Wales.”
It is also worth asking if a Labour majority will be detrimental to the indy movement? After all, a Labour Government is far more likely to appeal to Wales' broadly left of centre political leanings. When asked this, Adam Price said: “Historically regressive, Conservative governments have given great impetus to the national movement in Wales particularly 18 years largely under Thatcher, which changed the dial on the question of devolution. That track is well understood.
“But what isn't always fully remembered is actually, Labour governments in Westminster have also given impetus at different times to to national movements in Wales and Scotland, as well because what often happens is the matter of hopes and expectations dashed.
“So a lot of people in Wales will be very hopeful that the election of a different Westminster Government will improve their lives. It can't do any worse than the current government but I think there will be disappointment because for reasons of political tactics and positioning the British Labour Party tend to tack to the centre ground for fear of alienating potential voters in various parts of England mostly. In the 1960s and 70s, you saw a rise in support for self government and the election of Gwynfor Evans because there was frustration with the Labour government who were closing mines in Wales actually at a greater pace than anything done under the Conservative government.”
Lessons to be learned
Make no mistake, however much we talk about the “progress” the indy side has made, the challenge before them is monumental. If achieving Scottish independence is climbing Everest then achieving the same in Wales is like doing it with no oxygen when half of your Sherpa guides don’t actually want you to get to the top. To do it, the indy movement needs to move past some fairly sizable growing pains they have experienced and learn lessons from Scotland.
Let’s look at the growing pains first. Despite some substantial achievements, YesCymru have been, by their own admission, a very amateur organisation in terms of administration. “We've still got an awful lot of historic issues with data, management and membership” said chief executive Gwern Gwynfil. “Some people have been counted as members even though they haven't paid their subscription. We've just found a few more of those, particularly in the over 65, and student brackets. It was it was just poor maintenance, all of which is being resolved and being resolved quite quickly. And the next step for us really, is to get all the lapsed members, many of whom still aren't aware that they're lapsed members because they're not automatically renewing, getting back on board while continuing to add new members.”
The party previously lost thousands of members after an “admin error”. Despite regularly publishing its membership figures when it was growing rapidly, Mr Gwynfil has repeatedly refused to say the total membership. He would however say that it was “adding brand new members at the rate of about 100 a month”. Not bad but hardly the things mass movements are made of especially given they have been unsure how many are leaving through the backdoor. The organisation, which though the largest is not the only independence group in Wales, has acknowledged the need for professionalising. There is no way the movement can move forward until this is done.
In terms of lessons from Scotland there are several key takeaways that can provide a guide for indy supporters in Wales:
Resting too much on the shoulders of a single person is dangerous. As we have seen with Nicola Sturgeon, having a figurehead for independence can be great for raising the profile of an issue. But it can be a real momentum killer if that person steps aside.
Welsh indy needs a Welsh identity. Linked to the issue of having a clear figurehead to the indy movement, any successful independence campaign in Wales needs to have an inherently Welsh identity. One of Wales’ great features is its strong communities. As Wales’ first MS Gwynfor Evans said, it is “a community of communities”. Using this to grow the movement will be key to any successful campaign. People respond far better to their friend or family suggesting something than a random politician.
It is all about the money. Ultimately the indy side can not win unless it alleviates people's key economic concerns around currency, pensions, the border and growth strategy. You don’t just need answers to these questions, you need credible answers. Just saying “we will sell water” won’t cut it.
You can’t just talk to the people who already agree with you. At the forefront of the independence movement in Wales there needs to be a desire to unite and not divide. People who disagree with Welsh independence are not enemies. They are fellow citizens who as of yet are unconvinced about the merits of indy. The issues of Brexit and Scottish indy show how toxic a debate can become if allowed.
The Welsh independence movement still has a lot of growing up to do. Parts of the movement feel that the Scots not leaving imminently ultimately gives Welsh independence more time to answer the fundamental problems facing them
Gwern Gwynfil said: “What's happened in Scotland has taken the pressure off for us in Wales a little bit now. Because the conversation isn't going to be dominated by Nicola Sturgeon and Scotland we've got a bit more breathing space.”
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