LABOUR’S support in Scotland has plunged after the Budget, with voters worried that Rachel Reeves’s tax hikes will make them worse off, according to a new poll.
Backing for Anas Sarwar’s party has fallen to such an extent that it would be virtually impossible for him to form a government, if the numbers were replicated at the 2026 Holyrood elections.
The poll by Norstat, said that while voters supported many measures in Labour’s first Budget since coming to power, they felt it would leave them and Scotland as a whole worse off, The Sunday Times reported.
In the constituency ballot, Labour’s support has fallen seven points to 23%, which is the lowest level since Nicola Sturgeon resigned as first minister last March.
On the regional list, Labour’s support fell by six points to 22%.
If those numbers were replicated in the next Scottish Parliament election, Labour would have 29 MSPs, falling short of the level needed to form a government, according to polling expert Professor John Curtice (below) of Strathclyde University.
The poll put the SNP on 33% support in the constituency ballot, unchanged on the last survey in August and up one point to 29% on the regional list. This gives them a projected 51 MSPs, in a result which would likely see John Swinney hold on as First Minister.
Curtice said Labour’s popularity since the start of the summer “has now fallen as rapidly as the leaves in autumn”.
He added: “Today’s poll now reveals that voters’ disillusion with the new Prime Minister and UK Government has taken a significant toll on the party’s prospects north of the border.”
The poll found that under the new leadership of Russell Findlay (below), the Scottish Conservatives increased their constituency support by three points to 15%. There was no change on the regional list where they have 14%.
Those numbers would relegate the party to third place with just 16 MSPs.
And the survey showed Nigel Farage’s Reform could stand to do well in the next Scottish Parliament election in 18 months’ time, with 11% in both the constituency and regional ballot – putting them ahead of both the LibDems and the Greens.
Curtice said Reform could become the biggest of the smaller parties, with 12 MSPs to the LibDems’ 11 and the Greens on 10.
Starmer’s approval rating was found to have collapse since August, falling from minus nine to minus 38.
Sarwar’s rating also fell by nine points to minus 17 and Swinney’s remained steady on minus 11.
The SNP welcomed the results, saying that the “more people see and hear from Labour, the more they realise that Labour is not on their side”.
Deputy leader Keith Brown added: “Whether it's cutting the Winter Fuel Payment for around 900,000 pensioners or failing to lift thousands of children out of poverty by scrapping the two child limit, voters can see Keir Starmer’s government is not taking the actions they expected Labour would take to help improve lives across Scotland.”
Asked about the overall impact of the Budget, 29% of voters said it would have a negative impact on them and their households and 34% said the same for Scotland as a whole.
Just 17% thought the Budget would leave them better off and 24% said it was good for Scotland.
However, many specific policies are popular. Raising the minimum wage was supported by 78% and there was majority support for introducing VAT on private school fees and freezing fuel duty. There was also a plurality in favour of increasing capital gains tax.
People were not in favour of the Government’s pledge of indefinite military support for Ukraine in its war against Russia worth £3 billion per year.
Some 1,013 people were surveyed by Norstat post-budget between Wednesday, October 30 and November 1.
