Growing support for Nigel Farage and Reform UK is the only reason Keir Starmer and his besieged Labour government remain at the top of the opinion polls, a leading pollster has claimed.
As the government woke up this morning to the shock resignation of transport secretary Louise Haigh over a historic fraud conviction, the latest Techne UK tracker poll for The Independent put Labour at a one-point lead over the Tories.
With 28 per cent for Labour compared to 27 per cent for the Conservatives, Sir Keir has stayed on top despite fury over the government’s Budget regarding national insurance rises and the so-called family farm tax, as well as a series of scandals involving freebies and ministerial conduct.
The findings appear to confirm the initial bounce enjoyed by the Tories after Kemi Badenoch became leader has ended, with the party polling the same percentage for a third week in a row.
However, for the first time in three months, Reform UK’s share has risen by a point to 18 per cent in a week where Nigel Farage welcomed former Tory MP Andrea Jenkyns to his party as their candidate for mayor of Lincolnshire.
Meanwhile, Sir Ed Davey’s Lib Dems are up one point to 13 per cent in the week where he announced his bid to top the Christmas pop charts, and the Green Party is down one to six per cent.
Michela Morizzo, chief executive of Techne UK, pointed out that the centre-right vote in the UK now accounts for 45 per cent in the poll with Labour struggling.
She said: “Our regular tracker poll of Westminster voting intention reverts this week to the ongoing pattern of Labour Party struggles.
“Whilst Badenoch and Farage and their respective parties remain at distance to one another all commentators will take note that together the centre-right political spectrum parties hold some 45 per cent of the national vote share.
“As such, these are dangerous times for Labour but at the same time how the opposition might come together, particularly in key areas of national debate, is still not clear and not easy at all.”
Further to this, less than a third (31 per cent) of the public say they trust the government to do the right thing.
Additionally, a quarter of Labour voters in the 2024 election have since abandoned the party.
