Before Ryan Reynolds or Rob Mac had even attended their first game at Wrexham’s Racecourse ground, back when the historic Welsh club was still in England’s fifth tier, the ultimate goal was already clear.
“We’d be lying if the dream wasn’t the Premier League,” Reynolds admitted. Less than five years later, that dream doesn’t look so fanciful anymore.
Wrexham are just 90 minutes away from securing the final spot in the EFL Championship’s promotion playoffs. The top five of Coventry City, Ipswich Town, Millwall, Middlesbrough and Southampton are all out of reach, yet Hull City and Derby County are still very much in the race for the sixth-place spot which Wrexham hold with one game of the regular season left to play.
Heading into the final day of the campaign on Saturday, the Red Dragons must at least match the results of Hull (who are seventh and level on points with Wrexham) and Derby (eighth, one point back) to secure postseason soccer.
Given the perilous points tallies and goal difference of the three clubs involved, there are myriad of potential permutations to consider. Opta have turned their supercomputer to the task of crunching through the numbers to spit out the most likely scenario from what promises to be a dramatic final day.
EFL Championship Standings After 45 Games
| Position | Team | Goal Difference | Points |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6. | Wrexham | +4 | 70 |
| 7. | Hull | +3 | 70 |
| 8. | Derby | +9 | 69 |
Supercomputer Predicts Wrexham, Hull, Derby Final Day Results
| Fixture | Chances of Home Win | Chances of Draw | Chances of Home Loss |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wrexham vs. Middlesbrough | 40.3% | 26.6% | 33.1% |
| Hull vs. Norwich | 39.6% | 26.6% | 33.8% |
| Derby vs. Sheffield United | 48.6% | 25.8% | 25.6% |
To avoid any collusion, Wrexham, Hull and Derby will all kick off at the same early time on Saturday (12.30 p.m. BST / 7.30 a.m. ET / 4.30 a.m. PT). Derby undoubtedly boast the easiest fixture as they host a Sheffield United side slumped in 15th place with nothing to play for. Unsurprisingly, they are considered by Opta to be the most likely victors this weekend, triumphing in almost half of the 10,000 simulations run by the supercomputer.
Wrexham and Hull, by contrast, have far tougher tests. Ninth-placed Norwich City’s playoff aspirations are over but there are few sides who wouldn’t fancy their chances given Hull’s recent form: the Tigers are winless in their last six matches. In fact, since they defeated Wrexham back on March 10, Hull have only managed to get the better of rock-bottom Sheffield Wednesday.
The Welsh outfit have endured their own wobble of form, notably getting thumped 5–1 by Southampton before losing to Birmingham City and Coventry earlier this month. They are also up against a Middlesbrough side that can still mathematically secure automatic promotion with a second-place finish. Ipswich Town (second) and Millwall (third) would both have to drop points while Boro triumph in Wrexham, but they will surely be gunning for a win regardless.
Supercomputer Predicts Wrexham’s Chances of Qualifying for Championship Playoffs
| Position | Wrexham | Hull City | Derby County |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6th | 45.92% | 34.28% | 19.8% |
| 7th | 31.16% | 34.18% | 34.66% |
| 8th | 22.92% | 31.54% | 45.54% |
With all the fine margins at play, there is little to separate the three sides involved. Wrexham are given the best chance of claiming sixth place although Hull are hardly cut adrift as they lie level on points with a marginally inferior goal difference. Derby’s aspirations appear to be less realistic, although hardly out of the question.
Crucially, Wrexham have experience of dramatic finales. As manager Phil Parkinson reflected to Sports Illustrated last weekend: “We’ve had it our way many times on final days of the season.”
Supercomputer Predicts Final 2025–26 EFL Championship Standings
| Predicted Position | Team | Predicted Points |
|---|---|---|
| 1. | Coventry | 93.70 |
| 2. | Ipswich | 83.04 |
| 3. | Millwall | 82.03 |
| 4. | Middlesbrough | 80.22 |
| 5. | Southampton | 78.57 |
| 6. | Wrexham | 71.49 |
| 7. | Hull | 71.47 |
| 8. | Derby | 70.69 |
| 9. | Norwich | 66.24 |
| 10. | Birmingham | 64.17 |
| 11. | Swansea | 62.79 |
| 12. | Preston | 61.17 |
| 13. | Bristol City | 60.73 |
| 14. | QPR | 58.73 |
| 15. | Watford | 58.04 |
| 16. | Sheff Utd | 58.02 |
| 17. | Stoke | 55.99 |
| 18. | Portsmouth | 55.54 |
| 19. | West Brom | 54.65 |
| 20. | Charlton | 53.95 |
| 21. | Blackburn | 53.72 |
| 22. | Oxford | 47.75 |
| 23. | Leicester | 44.01 |
| 24. | Sheff Wed | -1.90 |
READ THE LATEST WREXHAM NEWS, ANALYSIS AND INSIGHT FROM SI FC
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This article was originally published on www.si.com as Supercomputer Predicts Wrexham’s EFL Championship Promotion Chances Before Final Day.
