Could Gameweek 26 prove to be a crucial one in the Premier League title race?
Arsenal’s lead at the top of the table was cut to four points after a 1–1 draw away at Brentford which left many fans questioning whether Mikel Arteta’s side have what it takes to hold on and finally end their long wait for the title.
Manchester City are breathing down Arsenal’s neck and will hope to call on their significant experience in this position, which saw them catch up to the Gunners two years ago. It was around this time that City started to click and Arsenal began to falter—could history be repeating itself?
Let’s take a look at what the Opta supercomputer makes of the latest twist.
Supercomputer Predicts 2025–26 Premier League Title Race
Despite their slip-up, Arsenal are still seen as overwhelming favourites to go on and lift the title at the end of the season. Their title odds have dropped slightly but Mikel Arteta’s side are still backed to increase their lead to seven points, perhaps with one eye on April’s meeting between the top two.
Man City will need a result against the Gunners when they host their rivals at the Emirates, but the supercomputer does not back them to get one. Indeed, the Cityzens are seemingly more likely to be dragged into a battle for second place.
Behind them, Aston Villa are still rated as the biggest outside hopes, but with just over a 2% chance of getting over the line, Unai Emery’s biggest challenge is likely going to come with holding off those below his side.
| Position | Club | Current Points | Expected Points | Title Chances |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. | Arsenal | 57 | 81.93 | 85.81% |
| 2. | Man City | 53 | 74.56 | 12.07% |
| 3. | Aston Villa | 50 | 71.40 | 2.06% |
Supercomputer Predicts 2025–26 Champions League Race
England’s strong performance in European competitions is likely to hand them an extra spot in the Champions League this season, meaning fifth is almost certainly going to be enough for a place in Europe’s top competition.
Liverpool are the biggest beneficiaries from the predictions. Arne Slot’s side currently sit outside the top five but are backed to rise up to fourth, even if their fight for their place appears set to go down to the wire.
Indeed, Chelsea’s expected points tally is just 0.01 behind Liverpool. While they are backed to finish fifth, the Blues actually have a stronger percentage chance of qualifying for the Champions League than Arne Slot’s outfit.
The predictions have thrown up a fascinating battle for Europe, with Manchester United, Liverpool and Chelsea all expected to finish 0.37 points apart. Unfortunately for Michael Carrick, it is the Red Devils who are backed to finish last in this race.
Behind them, Brentford can feel good about their chances of qualifying for Europe after snatching a point from Arsenal, with a comfortable gap above a Bournemouth side chasing a famous place in either the Europa League or Conference League.
Newcastle United and Everton may have both left themselves too much to do in the European races.
| Position | Club | Current Points | Expected Points | Qualification Chances |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4. | Liverpool | 42 | 62.76 | 33.34% |
| 5. | Chelsea | 44 | 62.75 | 36.17% |
| 6 | Man Utd | 45 | 62.39 | 29.72% |
| 7. | Brentford | 40 | 58.22 | 6.92% |
| 8. | Bournemouth | 37 | 54.13 | 0.89% |
| 9. | Newcastle | 36 | 53.21 | 0.51% |
| 10. | Everton | 37 | 51.73 | 0.38% |
Supercomputer Predicts 2025–26 Relegation Battle
Dropping below the 50-point barrier, mid-table finishes would appear to await Sunderland, Fulham and Brighton & Hove Albion, who should have already done enough to ensure they do not need to be worried in the final few months of the season.
Similarly, Crystal Palace and Leeds United should have nothing to worry about, and that also goes for Tottenham Hotspur. Thomas Frank was dismissed earlier this week after seeing his side sleepwalk into a relegation battle and, while things aren’t exactly going to improve for Spurs, the supercomputer is backing them to comfortably avoid the drop.
It is Nottingham Forest who are likely to be sweating in their scramble to reach the famous 40 points that is often thought to be enough to secure safety. That is backed to be the case this season, although a 21% chance of relegation means there is little margin for error.
The supercomputer’s bottom three is unchanged. West Ham United are three points from safety as it stands but are not expected to make any more progress when it comes to closing the gap to the teams above them.
| Position | Club | Current Points | Expected Points | Relegation Chances |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11. | Sunderland | 36 | 49.69 | 0.23% |
| 12. | Fulham | 34 | 49.35 | 0.34% |
| 13. | Brighton | 31 | 47.55 | 0.90% |
| 14. | Crystal Palace | 32 | 46.76 | 1.10% |
| 15. | Leeds | 30 | 44.70 | 4.10% |
| 16. | Tottenham | 29 | 44.52 | 3.40% |
| 17. | Nottm Forest | 27 | 40.41 | 21.00% |
| 18. | West Ham | 24 | 36.13 | 70.54% |
| 19. | Burnley | 18 | 28.55 | 98.31% |
| 20. | Wolves | 9 | 19.64 | 99.99% |
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This article was originally published on www.si.com as Supercomputer Predicts Final 2025–26 Premier League Table After Arsenal Slip at Brentford.
