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Early Lines on Games Can Lead to Betting Opportunities Before the Fall
As we find ourselves in mid-July, betting on college football is already in full swing. Lines have been posted and adjusted, and odds continue to move as more news is made available, as publications and podcasts offer their takes on every schedule, every transfer. In short, if you’re waiting for the first week of September to start betting on college football, you’re already late to the table.
Never one to wait too long when it comes to college football betting, Superbook Sports released their “College Football Games of the Year” yesterday. The list of games is arbitrary but features a variety of top-ranked schools, rivalries, and games from virtually every conference. The games begin with Week 2, as earlier Week 0 and Week 1 games are posted separately. The lines for these featured games are posted with point spreads only; no money lines or totals are included for now.
With regard to the Mountain West Conference, Superbook Sports included lines on more than 30 games featuring Mountain West teams. Bettors willing to review power ratings and point spreads can often find an edge on certain lines, even when the games are months away from kickoff. Of course, teams facing injuries, surprises (good and bad) and upsets can and will happen throughout the season, but if these lines in July offer enough value, there’s always one game (or more) too good to refuse.
And with that, here are a few games to consider in the midst of your summer plans:
(NOTE: For reference, the “Superbook Sports Line” reflects the point spread provided by Superbook Sports at the time of this writing; the “Power Ratings Line” reflects a combination of available power ratings for college football from sources including but not limited to the “Wagertalk College Football Schedule Guide” by Ralph Michaels, “Steve Makinen’s CFB Power Ratings” available through VSiN’s Point Spread Weekly, and Phil Steele’s 2022 College Football Preview.)
September 30, 8:00pm EST: San Diego State at Boise St
Superbook Sports Line: SDSU +7.5
Power Ratings Line: SDSU +10.5
Boise State will welcome the Aztecs on a Friday night, nationally televised game, in what many will consider a potential conference championship matchup. From a betting perspective, that 3-point difference between lines is typically a threshold where bettors would consider a wager. However, for now, it’s only one to keep an eye on. While both teams are expected to compete among the top of the conference all season long, San Diego State has won the last two games against the Broncos outright.
LEAN: BOISE STATE -7.5
November 19, TBA: Colorado State at Air Force
Superbook Sports Line (SSL): Colorado State + 9.5
Power Ratings Line (PRL): Colorado State + 16.5
Mountain West Football: MWwire’s 2022 Preseason Projected Order Of Finish
Colorado State has lost five straight to Air Force, including last year’s 35-21 defeat. New Head Coach Jay Norvell will bring some excitement to the Rams’ season, and the team could be motivated in this late-season matchup to get to bowl eligibility. But barring something unforeseen by November, expect the Falcons to be an experienced team looking to finish the season strong and possibly compete for a spot in the conference championship game. BET: AIR FORCE -9.5
September 23, 8:00pm EST: Nevada at Air Force
October 29, 10:30pm EST: Nevada at San Jose State
November 19, 10:30pm EST: Fresno State at Nevada
November 26, TBA: Nevada at UNLV
These four games are grouped together to exemplify what sharp bettors are often looking for when placing a wager: a clear discrepancy between their power ratings and a sportsbook’s lines. In each of these games, Superbook Sports appears to have a rather low opinion of Nevada, giving them an extra 4 to 8 points more than power ratings would suggest. While that may give pause to some – Nevada is widely considered to be in a “rebuilding” year – experienced bettors will often trust their numbers and consider wagers on Nevada in virtually every one of the above matchups. (The season finale at UNLV may be further considered as a rivalry game but Superbook Sports is giving the Wolf Pack +6.0; power ratings suggest the game is closer to 1 or 2 points in favor of the Rebels.)
LEANS: NEVADA +20.5 at Air Force; NEVADA +12.5 at San Jose State; NEVADA +16.5 vs Fresno State; NEVADA +6.0 at UNLV
