Voters in 16 US states and one US territory are choosing their presidential candidate in primaries on Tuesday, as the country once again observes the quadrennial tradition of “Super Tuesday”.
In past election cycles, Super Tuesday has provided a clear indication of which candidates will win their parties’ presidential nominations. In 2020, for example, Joe Biden brought Bernie Sanders’ march to the Democratic nomination to a crashing halt after he won 10 of the Super Tuesday states. Biden went on to become the Democratic nominee and later won the general election against Donald Trump.
But this year, Super Tuesday carries far less suspense. Both parties already have a clear sense of who their nominees will be, as Biden and Trump have cruised through the early voting states. The Republican presidential candidate Nikki Haley remains in the race against Trump, but expectations for her campaign are low, as she has only managed to win one primary so far.
Despite the anticlimactic nature of this year’s primaries, Super Tuesday could still provide key clues about where each party stands heading into the general election in November. Here’s everything you need to know about Super Tuesday:
Which states will vote on Super Tuesday?
Voters in 15 states – Alabama, Alaska, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Maine, Massachusetts, Minnesota, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Vermont and Virginia – cast their ballots in the Republican presidential primary on Tuesday. All those states except Alaska hold their Democratic primary contests on Tuesday as well.
The US territory of American Samoa simultaneously holds its Democratic caucus, and Tuesday also marks the last day for Iowa Democrats to mail in their primary ballots. (Republicans held their Iowa caucuses in January, when Trump easily won the first voting state.)
How many delegates are up for grabs?
In the Republican primary, 874 of 2,429 total delegates are up for grabs on Super Tuesday, and the winning candidate will ultimately need 1,215 delegates to capture the nomination. In the Democratic contest, 1,421 delegates, representing roughly a third of all delegates, are up for grabs on Super Tuesday, and Biden will need 1,969 delegates to officially win the nomination.
Could Trump win the Republican nomination on Tuesday?
Trump has already won 244 delegates from the early voting contests, according to Associated Press, so he needs roughly 1,000 more to capture the nomination. He is unlikely to cross that threshold on Super Tuesday, but he will probably win several hundred delegates , bringing him within striking distance of an official victory. Trump could bring an end to the Republican primary as soon as this month.
Specific states’ rules on allocating Republican delegates could work to Trump’s advantage on Tuesday. For example, officials in California recently changed primary rules allowing any candidate who captures over 50% of the vote to receive all of the state’s 169 Republican delegates. Now that the Republican primary is a two-person race between Trump and Haley, the former president is expected to easily win all of California’s delegates.
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Could this be Haley’s last stand?
Most likely, yes. Even after losing to Trump by 20 points in her home state of South Carolina, Haley vowed to fight on to Super Tuesday, insisting that Republican voters deserved the opportunity to cast their ballots in the primary.
“In the next 10 days, another 21 states and territories will speak,” Haley said after the South Carolina primary on 24 February. “They have the right to a real choice, not a Soviet-style election with only one candidate. And I have a duty to give them that choice.”
But Haley has been vague on her plans after Super Tuesday, and many election watchers expect her to soon call it quits. With only one win in Washington DC under her belt, Haley will have a hard time justifying the continuation of her candidacy.
What’s at stake for Biden on Super Tuesday?
Biden does not have any real competition for the Democratic nomination, as both of his main opponents – Minnesota congressman Dean Phillips and self-help author Marianne Williamson – have failed to win any delegates so far, per the AP’s tracker.
But Super Tuesday represents an opportunity for Biden to notch some decisive wins after his mixed performance in the Michigan primary last week. Biden won an impressive 81% of the vote in Michigan, but more than 100,000 of the state’s voters cast ballots for “uncommitted” after progressive organizers had urged Michiganders to do so as a means of protesting against the war in Gaza. Many on the left have called on Biden to do more to bring about a ceasefire.
In a statement issued last Tuesday after Michigan polls closed, Biden celebrated his win and notably did not include any specific mention of the “uncommitted” turnout, an omission that infuriated the progressive organizers of the campaign.
“You’ve heard me say many times it’s never a good bet to bet against the United States of America,” Biden said in the statement. “This fight for our freedoms, for working families, and for Democracy is going to take all of us coming together. I know that we will.”
Super Tuesday may give Biden the chance to show that the Democratic party is already coming together to defeat Trump in November.
