The 49ers are good, yet there seems to be a prevailing thought that the existence of Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes is enough to offset any talent advantage San Francisco might have. It helps that the Chiefs’ run to the postseason has been more impressive than the 49ers’ in terms of point differential, but playoff success prior to the Super Bowl isn’t an indicator of performance in the big game.
Let’s run through some of the reasons for optimism on the 49ers’ side:
Chiefs run defense
There’s no question the Chiefs enter Sunday’s game with one of the NFL’s best defenses. If not for that unit they may not be playing for the Lombardi Trophy. However, their defense isn’t without its weaknesses, and their biggest weakness plays into San Francisco’s biggest strength.
Kansas City finished this season 24th in the NFL in rushing yards allowed per attempt, and 27th in rush defense DVOA. That’s something head coach Kyle Shanahan will surely aim to exploit, especially after not doing so down the stretch of San Francisco’s Super Bowl LIV to the Chiefs.
The 49ers have the NFL’s rushing leader in Christian McCaffrey, but running back Elijah Mitchell and wide receiver Deebo Samuel also offer capable options Shanahan can lean on to diversify what he’s doing on the ground. It won’t (and can’t) just be handoffs to McCaffrey. There’ll be misdirection, there’ll be fakes, there’ll be motions, and all of those things should put the 49ers in position to create running lanes vs. a porous Chiefs run defense.
As long as San Francisco sticks to the run game like it did even down multiple scores in the NFC championship game, they’ll give themselves a real chance to put up enough points to win their sixth Lombardi Trophy.
Brock Purdy is dialed
Before the NFC championship game we mentioned how rare it is for Purdy to have back-to-back tough games. It’s even more rare for him to go three games in a row with shoddy performances, and Shanahan said his QB is locked in the week leading up to the Super Bowl.
Purdy has posted back-to-back games with a passer rating below 90.0 in the playoffs. It’s only the second time all year he’s done that, and he’s yet to have three games with a passer rating below 90.0.
Not that passer rating is the ultimate decider of QB performance, but it encompasses completion rate, yards, touchdowns and interceptions. The 49ers are 11-1 when Purdy clears the 90.0 threshold this year. Steve Spagnuolo’s defense might be the toughest Purdy has faced this season, Baltimore included, so it’s no guarantee he turns in a good day. He’ll need to be decisive, accurate and good on second reaction plays to overcome Kansas City’s stingy defense. If he does all three of those things, his passer rating should climb above that threshold where it’s almost impossible to beat San Francisco.
49ers after a bye week
The 49ers on extra rest have done a really nice job this season. After either a Thursday game where they got a mini bye, or after a full week off they went 4-0 and outscored their opponents 135-59, including a 42-19 drubbing of the Eagles in Philadelphia after a Week 12 Thursday night game against the Seahawks.
San Francisco does a good job of self-scouting and making adjustments on both sides of the ball with extra time to prepare. Offensively that’ll be paramount against an excellent Chiefs defense, and defensively it will require multiple wrinkles to throw at Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid.
Bonus: If you're into this sort of thing...
There’s no real empirical data here, but it’s something we thought about.
The Chiefs are coming off a Super Bowl win. The 49ers are looking to remove a monkey that’s resided on their back since the 2019 season (and really more since 1995). Desperation can matter a lot in the NFL, and San Francisco certainly enters Sunday’s game with greater desperation.
Whether this matters? No clue. But if you need a reason to be optimistic, you can lean on it.
