Every other week here at For The Win, we’ll be keeping tabs on the NFL’s top Super Bowl 58 contenders. This index is our way of gauging the current temperature of the league while trying to get a sense of what might await us in the playoff crucible of January and February. This is an unscientific rationale rooted in recent developments from one football writer’s crystal ball.
The Dallas Cowboys and the San Francisco 49ers are the NFL’s premier teams. You can check your calendar, but rest assured: It is not 1993. Dak Prescott and Brock Purdy start for Dallas and San Francisco now, not Troy Aikman and Steve Young. What a time to be alive.
Two weeks into the 2023 NFL season, we are watching two marquee franchises slowly reignite one of the sport’s most heated rivalries. As long as the Cowboys and 49ers maintain their scorching paces, a tense playoff rematch that could decide the winner of Super Bowl 58 feels like an inevitability. And the most exciting part is they’ll square off on Sunday Night Football in a few weeks to give us an early teaser of the fireworks.
Can anyone break up the party between Dallas and San Francisco? Let’s dive into this week’s Super Bowl Contender Index and make a case.
5
Kansas City Chiefs
Week 1 rank: 4 (second appearance)
The defending champions took concerns from a troubling opening-season loss and channeled them into a 17-9 shutdown of Trevor Lawrence’s Jacksonville Jaguars on the road. Concerns about those flaws remain, though, particularly on offense. The Chiefs are purely here because I will only doubt Mahomes and Andy Reid when they’re officially eliminated and because of the said impressive victory over a top AFC contender in its house.
Travis Kelce scores, Ian Eagle comments. pic.twitter.com/5PygM14fJY
— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) September 17, 2023
We have enough of a sample size to understand that if Kansas City can’t get Travis Kelce going, then its offense will resort to Patrick Mahomes playing hero ball. Mahomes can carry an offense on his back like perhaps no one else in football history. But asking him to elevate an offense essentially by himself is an unsustainable strategy built on a house of cards. Not even the arguably best signal caller the sport has ever seen can play mistake-free football for five months. And no quarterback can make the passes and the catches necessary for a consistently prolific attack.
Unless someone like Skyy Moore or Rashee Rice blossoms in the coming weeks, the somewhat sputtering Chiefs feel like they have a definitive ceiling on their repeat aspirations. But knowing Kansas City’s top-level program, someone will eventually step up.
4
Baltimore Ravens
Week 1 rank: N/A (first appearance)
After an offseason of passive-aggressive angst, we thought the Ravens could be revitalized in 2023. Thanks to the latest evolution in Lamar Jackson’s game, Baltimore finally seems prepared to build on that fateful 14-win season from 2019. And it’s expressly because of investments in Jackson and his talents.
Following a monster contract extension that will keep Jackson in Baltimore until at least 2028, the Ravens moved fast. They knew another year of a ground-based attack would lead them to the same deflating conclusion. They had to reinvent their offensive philosophy or risk wasting another season of the most talented quarterback they’ve ever had. With the promising Zay Flowers and Odell Beckham Jr. in the fold, that is no longer an issue.
The Ravens are unlocking the part of Jackson’s game that was always present, but he needed additional help to surface: a consistent vertical passing game from the pocket.
LAMAR LAUNCHES IT DEEEEEP TO ZAY FLOWERS
📺: #BALvsCIN on CBS
📱: Stream on #NFLPlus https://t.co/FhXtx7w3wW pic.twitter.com/CQK54UE8La— NFL (@NFL) September 17, 2023
Flowers, in particular, has been a godsend for Jackson and the Ravens. The electric rookie already has 13 catches for 140 yards on 15 targets. It’s still early, but his yards per target of 9.3 is higher than Davante Adams (8.8) and Stefon Diggs (8.4). It’s clear he has quickly become a safety valve for Jackson — which is always an excellent development for the glorified preseason football of September.
What the rest of the AFC has to fear about the Ravens is that they don’t have all their ducks in a row. Yet. In his return to full-time football, Beckham Jr. has caught just five passes in two games. Because of injury, perennial Pro Bowl tight end Mark Andrews hasn’t featured like the difference maker we’ve come to expect. Meanwhile, one of the game’s elite cornerbacks, Marlon Humphrey, should soon return from a foot ailment.
The Ravens are used to being bitten by the injury bug. In this instance, their face-of-the-franchise quarterback is weathering the storm with an improved supporting cast catered to his abilities. That bodes very well for January.
3
Miami Dolphins
Week 1 rank: N/A (first appearance)
Don’t let their disappointing finish last season fool you; they’ve learned their lessons. The Tua Tagovailoa-Mike McDaniel Dolphins aren’t going anywhere. If anything, they’re somehow even better, even more polished for Round 2.
Sure, there might still be laughter about comparing Tagovailoa to Hall of Famer Dan Marino. But… I’m starting to think it’s not that outlandish of a comparison. Despite being a leading MVP candidate for the second straight year, the conversation around Tagovailoa still paints him as this limited starter Miami can’t win a title with. Yet, through two weeks, Tagovailoa is the NFL’s leading passer (715 yards), the eighth-highest rated passer (102.9), and his .208 expected points added (EPA) and completion percentage over expected (CPOE) composite leads the league.
This is a legitimate franchise quarterback picking up where he left off while surrounded by game-breaking weapons like Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, with the brilliant McDaniel pulling all the strings.
After beating the Chargers and Patriots on the road, the Dolphins have made their statement. They aren’t going anywhere. Miami might be the AFC’s toughest out if a current bottom-third defense in most relevant statistics experiences even a modicum of improvement. What’s that? Shutdown cornerback Jalen Ramsey comes back from injury later this season? Oh, boy. Watch out, NFL.
2
San Francisco 49ers
Week 1 rank: N/A (first appearance)
I’ll readily admit it. I did not believe in the Brock Purdy 49ers. I thought this was an immature team that spent eight months whining about an NFC title game defeat where they were clearly inferior. I also thought Purdy was an overmatched quarterback dummy designed for Kyle Shanahan’s skilled ventriloquism. I was wrong… to an extent.
I still have my doubts about Purdy’s game-breaking ability. But he’s undoubtedly been the difference for a 49ers offense that just needed someone to steer its red and gold monster truck without veering off the road. In Week 1, Purdy guided San Francisco to a sterling victory over the Pittsburgh Steelers — who flatten most other quarterbacks like pancakes. He followed that performance by guiding the 49ers to a successful comeback over the rival Los Angeles Rams. All is well and good in the Purdy era. So far.
These 49ers are not perfect by any means. Beyond Purdy’s flaws, the offensive line depth chart is a little scarce after Trent Williams. And if Brandon Aiyuk misses any significant time, this San Francisco scheme probably can’t survive without its leading traditional pass-catcher. Even with Aiyuk, an offense that prefers to take the air out of the ball won’t be able to sustain against every high-flying contender. Eventually, the 49ers will have to prevail in a shootout.
But a great defense, overall skill group, and a quarterback playing within himself gives the 49ers a ton of flexibility. They might have the NFL’s highest floor for performance by default. Most other teams don’t have Nick Bosa, Fred Warner and Christian McCaffrey to lean on as human backspace buttons. The 49ers do.
San Francisco has until the winter to sand over its deficiencies as it pleases. That’s not a bad timeline for a franchise just waiting to capitalize on its next postseason ticket.
1
Dallas Cowboys
Week 1 rank: 2 (second appearance)
It’s September, and the Cowboys are already a reliable laughingstock. No, wait, sorry, wrong script. It’s September, and the Cowboys are 2-0. They resemble a massive steamroller set to square off with an aluminum soda can. They are unequivocally the best team in professional football.
(Gasp. No. He said what?)
You heard me. The Cowboys — yes, the ones led by Mike McCarthy — should be the Super Bowl 58 favorite. Dallas does everything well. Any meaningful criticism of their current operation reads like an unnecessary nitpick.
Dallas is:
- First in points scored
- First in points allowed (a total of 10 over two games)
- First in overall team DVOA efficiency
- In possession of the NFL’s best turnover ratio (7-0)
The scary part is that it doesn’t even look like the Cowboys have called on the dogs. They flat-out embarrassed the New York Giants — a playoff team last season — without breaking a sweat. Yes, Zach Wilson led an inept New York Jets offense last week, but that didn’t stop Dallas from humbling a stacked Gang Green defense with minimal effort.
What happens when the Cowboys have to actually put their foot on the gas? Because Dallas is in the kind of dominant cruise control right now that every championship-caliber team covets. (We might learn more about this squad when it visits San Francisco in October.) Otherwise, I do not have any remaining questions about the Cowboys, at least in the regular season. They look like a bona fide No. 1 seed who will earn every bit of that essential wild-card weekend bye.
Dallas’ real questions will begin in mid-January. But it’s a long time before we cross that terrifying bridge.
