Labour would be handed a “blank cheque” if current polling were replicated at the election, Rishi Sunak has said after Nigel Farage’s party overtook the Conservatives for the first time.
The prime minister said he was still fighting for every vote after a YouGov poll put the Tories in third place behind Labour and Reform UK, dealing a fresh blow to his struggling campaign.
Speaking to journalists in Puglia, Italy, where he is attending the G7 leaders summit, Sunak said: “We’re only halfway through this election right? So I’m still fighting very hard for every vote.
“I always say the poll that matters is the one on 4 July – but if that poll was replicated on 4 July, it would be handing Labour a blank cheque to tax everyone. Tax their home, their pension, their car, their family, and I’ll be fighting very hard to make sure that doesn’t happen.
“And actually, when I’ve been out and about talking to people, they do understand that a vote for anyone who’s not a Conservative candidate is just a vote for Keir Starmer in No 10.”
In a direct appeal to voters thinking of backing Reform, Sunak added: “So if you want action on lower taxes, lower migration, protected pensions or a sensible approach to net zero, you’re only going to get that by voting Conservative.”
YouGov’s poll published on Thursday night put Labour on 37%, Reform on 19% and the Conservatives on 18%, though the pollster said its findings were within the margin of error.
Farage seized on it during the seven-way ITV leaders’ debate and declared that his party was “the opposition now”.
The election analyst John Curtice told the BBC Radio 4 Today programme that in reality across the polling Reform was four or five points behind the Conservatives. But he said the findings demonstrated “both the Conservatives and Labour are losing ground to smaller parties”.
“The only way Rishi Sunak could get to base camp was to squeeze the Reform vote. Things are going backwards not least because of Nigel Farage’s decision to fight this campaign,” he said.
Sunak said the choice between the parties “will crystallise for people ahead of polling day”.
Asked whether this election was existential for his party, he said: “At the end of the day on 5 July, one of two people’s going to be prime minister – Keir Starmer or me – and this week the most important thing that happened was you saw both major parties manifestos that’s their programme for government if they were elected.”
Nigel Farage said Reform UK had had a “phenomenal start” and he hoped the party could “get through the electoral threshold”, but he refused to set a target for the number of parliamentary seats it could win.
He told BBC Breakfast: “Back in 2015 when I led Ukip into a general election, we got 4m votes and one seat – never before had anybody got so many votes for so little reward.
“But we’re looking this time at many, many more votes than 4 million, we’re hoping to get through the electoral threshold.
“Whatever we do, we may not get the number of seats we deserve, but are we going to win seats in parliament? Yes.”
Bim Afolami, a Treasury minister, rejected suggestions that the Conservatives should consider striking an electoral pact with Reform UK. Asked if his party would consider a deal, he told Sky News: “No, no. It’s an election, we’re not doing deals with anybody.”
Asked about the YouGov poll, he told Times Radio: “No, polls are polls. There’s pretty much a poll every single day in this campaign, there’ll be more, it’s one poll out of literally hundreds.
“But what it does show is that there is significant difficulty of Keir Starmer having unchecked power to do all the things like tax your home, your job, your car and your pension if people vote Reform. A vote for Reform is a vote for Keir Starmer.”
