Labour has 99% chance of forming next government, says elections expert – as it happened

Curtice said that there is now a ‘99% chance of Labour forming the next administration’. Photograph: Christopher Furlong/Getty Images

5.01pm GMT

Afternoon summary

• Water companies in England have faced a barrage of criticism as data revealed raw sewage was discharged for more than 3.6m hours into rivers and seas last year in a 105% increase on the previous 12 months.

• Peter Mandelson has dismissed the prospect of an incoming Labour government taking Britain back into the EU, saying “you’ve got to be joking” that Brussels would want to renegotiate the UK’s membership.

• The number of requests for UK ministerial approval of intelligence-sharing where there was a real risk of torture, unlawful killing or extraordinary rendition has more than doubled in a year.

• David Neal, the UK’s sacked chief borders inspector, has said the Home Office routinely used a fact-checking process to try to “cover up” criticisms in his inspection reports.

• Prof Sir John Curtice, the psephologist and lead election analyst for the BBC, has said Labour has a 99% chance of being in government after the next election. (See 10.52am.)

4.27pm GMT

Police agree to review decision not to act on Tory deputy chair's complaint about Angela Rayner

Greater Manchester police has decided to review its decision not to act on a complaint about Angela Rayner, Labour’s deputy leader, submitted by James Daly, a Conservative party deputy chairman.

Daly contacted the police in response to information published in a new biography of Rayner published by Lord Ashcroft, who is himself a former Tory deputy chairman.

The book generated claims that Rayner should have paid capital gains tax when she sold the council home she had bought. Rayner has denied this, and says she has had advice confirming that no capital gains tax was owed.

But Daly’s complaint to the police focused on the suggestion that at one point Rayner submitted wrong information about where she was living for the electoral roll.

Earlier this month the police dismissed Daly’s allegation and said there was no evidence an offence had ben committed. But Daly complained they had not looked into it properly, and the Times says he has now received a letter from Cheryl Hughes, a detective chief inspector at the force, said she will review that decision.

According to the Times, Hughes said:

I have read your letter outlining your concern over the lack of investigation into the matters you raised in your initial complaints to GMP on the 25 February regarding Angela Rayner MP.

Following receipt of your recent letter dated 13 March 2024, I have been requested to review the circumstances you have outlined to reassess our decision around an investigation. I will update with the outcome.

Rayner told Newsnight last week that no rules had been broken and that the allegations were “a non-story manufactured to try and smear me”. And, in a thread on X about the allegations last month, she said the story was just “a constant stream of smears from the usual suspects”.

Updated at 4.29pm GMT