For Conservatives with memories long enough to remember five years and three prime ministers ago, this week’s internal party psychodrama will have seemed familiar.
Rishi Sunak’s fight to retain party unity over immigration resembles the similar battles waged by his predecessor Theresa May in 2018.
Once again a Conservative prime minister is trying to negotiate between moderates in the party, who are urging their leader not to abandon international law, and hardliners who want the PM to snub Europe and go it alone.
Once again, the hardliners are being led by the veteran backbencher Bill Cash, and once again they have set up a “star chamber” of MPs and lawyers to decide whether the prime minister’s compromise solution goes far enough.
“It is all feeling very late 2018/early 2019,” said Gavin Barwell, May’s former chief of staff. “The party is once again in an unleadable state.”
Sunak attempted to regain control of the narrative surrounding his Rwanda bill on Thursday after the dramatic resignation of his close friend, and now former immigration minister, Robert Jenrick, on Wednesday night.
“He’s simply not right,” Sunak said about Jenrick on Thursday at a hastily arranged press conference in Downing Street. “For the people who say: ‘You should do something different,’ the difference between them and me is an inch, given everything that we have closed. We’re talking about an inch.”
Those on the right of the party disagree. Three of the most powerful backbench groups – the European Research Group, the New Conservatives and the Common Sense Group – have decided to withhold their judgment until the star chamber has given its verdict.
The star chamber will be led by Cash, but also includes the Tory backbencher and lawyer David Jones, as well as the lawyers Barney Reynolds and Martin Howe. The four began their deliberations on Thursday, and are expected to continue into the weekend.
Even before they have finished examining the bill, however, some close to the process are flagging major concerns that they do not think are surmountable.
The fact that the bill does not allow ministers to override the European convention of human rights is one but just as worrying for the right of the party is the ability of asylum seekers to challenge deportation under domestic law. Clause 4(1)(b) of the bill makes it explicit that even if Rwanda is now deemed a safe country, an individual can still argue they have particular individual circumstances that would make it unsafe.
“It’s the UK courts that will be the problem, not the international ones,” said one MP. “We are giving the green light for lawyers to line up to argue that each one of their clients has their own particular circumstances which make Rwanda unsafe.”
Many on the right of the party say they expect to vote for the bill at second reading next week, regardless of the star chamber’s verdict. However, they are likely to try to amend it later in the process, and if unsuccessful, say they are prepared to vote against it.
Downing Street believes they will be able to pass the bill whatever happens and move on to the process of getting flights in the air. But a major rebellion would be another blow to the authority of the beleaguered prime minister, who hoped he had stemmed the tide of rebellions when he sacked Suella Braverman as home secretary last month.
“His standing in the party, whatever happens with the Rwanda bill, is not high,” said one Tory MP. “Stopping the boats was one of his five pledges, and he has not achieved it. It all feels very similar to Theresa May during the Brexit years.”
Pollsters say curbing immigration is important to voters. A survey by Ipsos last month put it second on the list of Tory voters’ priorities, though only 10th on that of Labour voters.
Until recently however, the issue was falling down the list of what voters care about, even as migrant numbers were going up. Some experts believe Sunak’s own focus on it and the subsequent row over Rwanda have helped push it up the agenda.
“Unless Sunak was going to do something drastic like machine-gunning down the boats, it was unwise to focus so heavily on this issue,” said Ben Page, chief executive of Ipsos. “He has got a gaping wound and he keeps drawing attention to it.”
Tory MPs insist their constituents are so angry about the small boat arrivals that the prime minister had to do something about it. But even those sympathetic to his cause say his focus on Rwanda as the solution may have backfired.
“To a lot of people watching from the outside, this whole thing has a ‘through the looking-glass’ feel to it,” said Barwell.
“The government has been doing things which bring down the numbers, like signing a returns agreement with Albania. But rather than drawing attention to those successes, the party seems to have decided it will only be a success if we deliver Rwanda. It’s completely bizarre.”
• This article was amended on 8 December 2023. An earlier version suggested that Theresa May had been an “unelected” prime minister in 2018; in fact she led the Conservative party at the previous year’s general election.
