Early evening summary
James Cleverly, the foreign secretary, has said countries should not hold back from supplying Ukraine with arms. Opening a Commons debate on Ukraine within the last hour, he said:
If anyone in the international community or amongst our allies was thinking of holding back their stocks for a rainy day – this is the rainy day.
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Here is a round-up of some comment around today from Brexit watchers on the state of play in relation to the Northern Ireland protocol.
David Henig, a trade expert, says in an article for Encompass that Rishi Sunak may not be able to carry his party with him. He says:
Until last week even some Sunak opponents in his party were willing to give him the benefit of the doubt, one heard phrases such as “not rocking the boat for Northern Ireland”. But the mood has changed in days, as blood has been scented, in particular by former PM Boris Johnson and his supporters. Notwithstanding causing the mess, it is now suggested he is the man for the fix.
Raoul Ruparel, who was a Europe adviser in No 10 when Theresa May was PM, says that the European Research Group may be using the DUP as “cover” for opposing a deal.
Hugh Bennett, a former Brexit adviser to Boris Johnson and Theresa May, says in an article for Politico that it would make sense to pass the Northern Ireland protocol bill, even if a deal is agreed.
The complex society and history of Northern Ireland means that it is inevitable that arrangements have to be flexible enough to evolve over time, as evidenced by the Belfast (Good Friday) Agreement itself. Both the U.K. and the EU need to accept that it is not simply a case of “doing a deal” and walking away.
Either way, this underlines why it is essential that the U.K. retains its own ability to swiftly make changes in response to problems that may arise in the future, particularly if the EU is unable or unwilling to do so. This is why it is so important that U.K. continues to pass the Northern Ireland Protocol Bill into U.K. law even if a deal is agreed.
But Peter Foster, the FT’s Brexit expert, disagrees.
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Jenrick says Home Office monitoring 'small number' of lawyers over concerns they are helping people abuse asylum system
Robert Jenrick, the immigration minister, told MPs that the government was monitoring a “small number” of lawyers over concerns that they were abusing human rights rules on behalf of migrants. Responding to an urgent question about the violent demonstration in Knowsley outside a hotel housing asylum seekers, he said that some lawyers were helping people to abuse the asylum system.
Alister Carmichael, the Lib Dem home affairs spokesperson, challenged Jenrick to provide evidence to justify this. He said:
The minister told us … that part of the problem here is human rights lawyers who abuse and exploit our laws. That is obviously very serious – any lawyer doing that requires to be stopped.
So can the minister tell the house how many solicitors, advocates and barristers have been reported by the Home Office in the last 12 months to the regulatory authorities?
In response Jenrick replied:
We are monitoring the activities, as it so happens, of a small number of legal practitioners … It’s not appropriate for me to discuss that here.
But the wider point I was making stands, which is that the British public are looking on askance at the fact that individuals, mostly young males, are setting off from a demonstrably safe country, France, they are soliciting human traffickers to ferry them across the Channel, they’re invariably throwing their documents into the sea so that they can exploit our human rights laws.
That needs to change. The British public are angry and frustrated at that situation. We understand that, and that’s why we’re taking action.
Yvette Cooper, the shadow home secretary, told Jenrick it should be a matter of regret for him that some of the language used by Suella Braverman, the home secretary, was used on placards used by the far-right protesters. Braverman has spoken about there being “an invasion” of southern England by asylum seekers.
Jenrick replied:
The home secretary has condemned the violence unequivocally that we saw in Knowsley and that’s absolutely right because there is never any excuse for violence, intimidation or attacks on the police.
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Boris Johnson's former communications chief urges him not to 'stir things up' on NI protocol
Guto Harri, who was Boris Johnson’s director of communications in No 10, has said that it would be wrong for Johnson to “stir things up” on the Northern Ireland protocol. He made the comment in an interview for the News Agents podcast.
Harri was talking in relation to the stories that appeared on the front pages of the Observer and the Sunday Telegraph at the weekend. Both papers carried stories based on the remarks of “a source close to Johnson”, and Harri said that it was people “around Boris Johnson” who should not be stirring things up. He did not criticise his former boss directly.
When it was put to Harri that the stories seemed to come from Johnson himself, Harri said sometimes there are people attached to a politician who do not genuinely speak on their behalf.
That is true. But more often in lobby journalism a “source close to X” is an authorised spokesperson speaking on behalf of X, or X themselves. The Observer and Sunday Telegraph stories were written by journalists who should have known if their source was freelancing, and Johnson himself has not complained about having his views misrepresented.
Harri also claimed that Johnson was not “actively trying to come back as prime minister”. But others in the Conservative party take a different view. The former chancellor George Osborne told the Andrew Neil Show on Channel 4 last night:
If you wait for Boris Johnson to do the grown-up, sensible thing, he’s not going to do it if he thinks there’s a political opportunity in causing trouble. And he wants to bring down Rishi Sunak and he will use any instrument to do it – and if the Northern Ireland negotiations are that instrument, he will pick that up and hit Mr Sunak over the head with it.
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Humza Yousaf emerges as frontrunner to replace Nicola Sturgeon
Humza Yousaf has emerged as the frontrunner to replace Nicola Sturgeon as Scotland’s first minister after pledging to uphold her socially progressive policy agenda, my colleague Severin Carrell reports. He writes:
The Scottish health secretary said on Monday that he backed Sturgeon’s stances on same-sex marriage, abortion clinic buffer zones, banning conversion practices and on gender recognition changes, stating he would “absolutely” challenge the UK government’s block on Holyrood’s gender recognition bill.
He said the UK government’s decision to block the bill, which recent polls suggest is supported by a majority of Scottish voters, was in reality “an assault, an attack” on Holyrood’s autonomy.
He said: “Is somebody really going to suggest to me we should lay down and allow them to trample over the will of the Scottish parliament [on] a bill that had support from every single political party?”
The full story is here.
Junior doctors in England to strike for 72 hours in March after 98% vote in favour in BMA ballot
Here is my colleague Andrew Gregory’s story about the vote by BMA junior doctors for strike action in March. He says this will be only the second such action in the 74-year history of the NHS.
Junior doctors in England are set to go on strike for 72 hours next month in their dispute over pay, the British Medical Association has announced.
The BMA said that 98% of junior doctors voted for the strike action. More than 47,600 junior doctors in England were eligible to vote in the ballot and almost 37,000 votes were cast, meaning there was a 77.5% turnout.
Dr Robert Laurenson and Dr Vivek Trivedi, the co-chairs of the BMA junior doctors committee, said:
The government has only itself to blame, standing by in silent indifference as our members are forced to take this difficult decision.
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UK to hold further talks with EU on NI protocol 'in coming days', says James Cleverly
James Cleverly, the foreign secretary, says there will be more talks with the EU “in the coming days” on the Northern Ireland protocol – which suggests Sammy Wilson may have been right this morning when he said he did not expect an agreement to be reached this week. (See 9.33am.)
Cleverly made the comment in a tweet posted after a conversation about the protocol this afternoon with Maroš Šefčovič, the European Commission vice-president and EU Brexit negotiator, and Chris Heaton-Harris, the Northern Ireland secretary.
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Conor Burns, a former Northern Ireland minister and keen Brexiter, has posted an interesting thread on Twitter about the protocol negotiations. Despite being one of Boris Johnson’s most loyal allies, he has not followed Johnson in taking a swipe at Rishi Sunak’s negotiating stance. Instead he is urging colleagues to give Sunak a chance.
The thread starts here.
And here is Burns’ conclusion.
Braverman says NI protocol bill is key to getting deal with EU, implying sympathy with Boris Johnson's argument
Suella Braverman, the home secretary, has suggested that it would be wrong for the government to shelve the Northern Ireland protocol bill. Speaking to reporters on a visit this morning, she said:
We’ve been aware for some time now of challenges relating to trade, customs and sovereignty when it comes to Northern Ireland and the Northern Irish protocol.
The legislation that the government introduced is one of the biggest tools that we have in solving the problem on the Irish Sea.
It’s clear and it’s right that the prime minister is committed to finding a pragmatic solution to resolve these issues, which are affecting the people of Northern Ireland, and that we find a solution that’s pragmatic and workable both for the EU and the United Kingdom.
Her comment on the bill is much closer to what Boris Johnson was saying, through a “source close to”, at the weekend than to what Downing Street was saying this morning. (See 1.02pm.)
The argument that the bill is an important “tool” for fixing the protocol problem is based on the theory that the threat of the UK unilaterally abandoning the protocol has persuaded the EU to compromise. Perhaps that is true to an extent, although the fact that the bill has not been debated in the Lords since October implies the threat is now on hold. If the government were to push the bill through its final stages in the Lords, peers would almost certainly vote down some of its key clauses.
Tory enthusiasts for the bill seem to fall into two categories. On the Today programme this morning Simon Clarke was implying the government should keep debating the bill, to keep the pressure on Brussels in the final stages of the negotiation. (See 9.33am.) Boris Johnson seems to be arguing that, even if a deal is agreed, the bill should still be passed, so the UK retains leverage over the EU. (See 1.02pm.)
Downing Street does not seem to agree with either proposition.
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Brexiters urged to be pragmatic as some of them argue protocol deal should take NI out of single market
As a deal on the Northern Ireland protocol gets closer, Brexiters opposed to the protocol seem to be escalating their opposition to it. In 2021 the DUP set out “seven tests” for reform of the protocol. None of them explicitly say Northern Ireland must explicitly be taken out of the EU’s single market (although tests 4 and 6 imply this). But this morning Sammy Wilson, the DUP chief whip, said explicitly that a deal that kept Northern Ireland in the single market would be unacceptable. (See 9.33am.) Simon Clarke, the former levelling up secretary and leading Liz Truss ally, also said this morning he wanted Northern Ireland to stop being part of the single market. Given that the whole point of the protocol is to allow Northern Ireland to remain in the single market, this is quite an ask.
As the Brexiters (or at least some of them) firm up their position, other Tories are urging them to compromise. As the Evening Standard reports, Sir Bob Neill, the chair of the Commons justice committee, has urged his colleagues to be pragmatic. He said:
What we need is pragmatism not dogmatism.
It’s ridiculous to take purist points when you have got serious issues about people’s businesses, livelihoods and security. People have to grow up and compromise.
Sir David Lidington made the same argument on the World at One. (See 2.33pm.)
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Sir David Lidington, who was in effect Theresa May’s deputy when as PM she was trying to get MPs to agree her Brexit deal, told Radio 4’s the World at One that his party should abandon its “self-indulgent quarrelling” and back Rishi Sunak if he can negotiate a compromise with the EU on the Northern Ireland protocol. He said:
If [Sunak] comes back with a deal that is an improvement on the one Boris Johnson negotiated, then I hope my party and the country as a whole will get solidly behind him. There’s so many other things that need to be tackled.
I hope we don’t get a repeat of the self-indulgent quarrelling that I think has done so much damage to my party’s standing with the public over recent years.
Lidington also said Sunak should have a Commons vote on the deal, if and when it is agreed, even if technically there is no need for one. MPs were likely to force a vote anyway, he said. And he went on:
I think the good rule is, if you believe that something is in the national interest to do well, then you do it and you make your case and you try to persuade people accordingly.
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There are two urgent questions in the Commons this afternoon after 3.30pm, about the violence outside a hotel housing asylum seekers in Knowsley and about football governance.
After the UQs, at around 5pm, Tom Tugendhat, the security minister, will make a statement prompted by yesterday’s Sunday Times story about a TV station run by dissident Iranians in the UK closing after the police said they could not protect it from attack by terrorists working on behalf of the Iranian state.
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At the weekend Antony Blinken, the US secretary of state, said Washington believed China was considering supplying arms to Russia for use in the war in Ukraine.
At the Downing Street lobby briefing the PM’s spokesperson said this would be deplorable. Asked about the US assessment, the spokesperson said:
I obviously can’t get into intelligence. But certainly the UK and US share assessments regularly, as you would expect.
On this specific issue, any support for Putin’s brutal and illegal war against Ukraine is deplorable.
We expect China to stand up for Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity.
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Braverman says police being told to treat violence against women and girls as 'national threat'
Suella Braverman, the home secretary, has also been on a visit this morning to promote a policy initiative on crime. She was publicising eight initiatives that she described collectively as one “one of the toughest suites of measures” that the government has taken to deal with domestic abuse. Speaking in Warrington, she said:
Domestic abuse is horrendous crime, and enough is enough, and today I’m announcing one of the toughest suites of measures that the government has put forward to better protect victims of domestic abuse.
I’m changing the law to ensure that there’s more robust monitoring of perpetrators of domestic abuse.
We’re introducing measures to ensure that we will be able to tag offenders of domestic abuse, and we will also be adding offenders of domestic abuse onto the violence and sex offenders register.
Also, all police chiefs and forces around the country will now be put on a footing to deal with violence against women and girls as a national threat.
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Keir Starmer and Yvette Cooper, the shadow home secretary, visited Thurrock in Essex this morning to promote Labour’s plans to use “hotspot policing” to tackle drug dealing. Explaining the concept, Labour said:
As part of the previously pledged 13,000 neighbourhood police and PCSOs and alongside new town centre patrols, Labour will introduce data-driven hotspot policing targeted at common drug dealing sites to tackle the local gang networks and dealers who are blighting communities.
Hotspot policing would mean that, where there are surges in reporting of local drug dealing in particular areas or at particular times, neighbourhood police would be deployed to flood the area to arrest and deter dealers.
Using new technology, neighbourhood police will target areas including outside schools and town centres which are often vulnerable to drug dealing. Hotspot policing is acknowledged by experts to be one of the most effective ways of preventing local crime.
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'We shouldn’t gobblefunk around with words' - No 10 criticises decision to rewrite Roald Dahl's books
Rishi Sunak has criticised the decision to rewrite some of Roald Dahl’s books that are now deemed offensive.
At the Downing Street lobby briefing, asked if Sunak was in favour of the move, the PM’s spokesperson said:
When it comes to our rich and varied literary heritage, the prime minister agrees with the BFG that we shouldn’t gobblefunk around with words.
I think it’s important that works of literature and works of fiction are preserved and not airbrushed.
We have always defended the right to free speech and expression.
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No 10 delivers snub to Boris Johnson by refusing to commit to passing Northern Ireland protocol bill
Even though No 10 said there is no deal yet on the Northern Ireland protocol (see 12.13pm), much of the lobby briefing this morning was taken up with questions about what the deal is expected to involve. Here are some of the other points that came up.
No 10 refused to commit to passing the Northern Ireland protocol bill. The bill, which would allow the UK government to ignore parts of the protocol (even though this would break international law, lawyers argue), has been on hold in the House of Lords since October. Boris Johnson has said, through a “source close to”, that it should not be abandoned, because passing it allow the UK to retain leverage over the EU. The Observer and the Sunday Telegraph both splashed on this at the weekend.
This morning Johnson’s fellow Brexiter Simon Clarke made a similar argument. (See 9.33am.) But at the lobby briefing the PM’s spokesperson refused to say what would happen to the bill (which Sunak is expected to abandon as part of a deal with the EU), and he would not commit to it finishing its passage through parliament. The spokesperson said the bill would be “an important piece of legislation” in the absence of a deal with the EU, but he also stressed that the government would “prefer to achieve a negotiated solution”.
The spokesperson declined to describe Boris Johnson’s intervention as “helpful”. Yesterday Penny Mordaunt, the leader of the Commons, made this argument, saying Johnson was reminding the EU what might happen in the event of no deal being agreed. Asked if Sunak agreed, the spokesperson did not endorse what Mordaunt said, explaining that he had not asked Sunak about this.
The spokesperson refused to commit to MPs getting a vote on the deal. Technically it seems the government would not have to hold a vote (assuming the deal does not involve treaty change, which the EU opposes). Asked if Sunak would hold a vote anyway, the spokesperson did not commit to one, but did not rule one out either. “You will hear more from us should an agreement be reached with the EU that meets the challenges [set out],” the spokesperson said.
The spokesperson declined to say the protocol deal would have to meet the seven tests set out by the DUP. Yesterday Mordaunt told the BBC’s Laura Kuenssberg that a deal would have to meet those tests. Referring to the DUP tests, Mordaunt said:
Those are the tests this has to pass. If this deal does not pass those tests it won’t work, it’s as simple as that.
Asked if Sunak agreed with the seven tests, the spokesperson said the government had set out its own aims for the protocol renegotiation, and that the tests were a matter for the DUP.
The spokesperson refused to say whether the government would insist on the treaty enacting the protocol being rewritten. The EU is opposed to this, but the DUP would like the treaty to be abandoned or rewritten. Asked what the government’s view was, the spokesperson said he would not get into that. But he added:
Certainly the protocol as enacted is not working and that is what needs to be resolved.
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No 10 says 'no deal has been done as yet' on Northern Ireland protocol
The Downing Street lobby briefing has just finished, and the PM’s spokesperson told journalists that “no deal has been done as yet” on the Northern Ireland protocol.
Some reports have claimed that a technical deal has been agreed, and that it has been sitting on Rishi Sunak’s desk for some days, and that all that needs to be resolved are the political optics around it. But, when asked if there was a deal, the PM’s spokesperson told journalists that Rishi Sunak had held “positive conversations” with Ursula von der Leyen, the European Commission president, and the Northern Ireland parties in recent days. He went on:
It’s clear we need to find solutions that protect Northern Ireland’s place in our internal market, safeguard the Good Friday agreement and resolve the practical issues the protocol is causing for families and businesses.
The prime minister has been clear we have not resolved all of those issues, and no deal has been done as yet.
The prime minister and Von der Leyen agreed there had been good progress and that intensive work in the coming days is still needed at official and ministerial levels. That is our focus for the coming days.
I will post more from the briefing shortly.
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James Cleverly, the foreign secretary, will discuss the Northern Ireland protocol in a call with the European Commission vice-president Maroš Šefčovič this afternoon, PA Media reports. They will be joined by the Northern Ireland secretary, Chris Heaton-Harris, amid expectations both sides are inching closer to a deal.
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Irish foreign minister says UK politicians should not be 'playing politics' with NI protocol talks
Micheál Martin, the Irish foreign minister and tánaiste (deputy PM), has urged UK politicians not to play politics with the Northern Ireland protocol negotiations. Speaking in Brussels, where he has been attending the EU foreign affairs council, he said:
I think what’s very important is that everybody now from here on think about the people of Northern Ireland.
Not power play, not politics elsewhere, I think the people of Northern Ireland have had enough of that, of people playing politics with their future. And, in my view, my only concern is that the people of Northern Ireland voted [in last May’s assembly election], they want their institutions [at Stormont] restored.
People had legitimate concerns around the operation of the protocol.
There’s been a very sincere and substantial attempt to resolve those concerns by the UK negotiating team with the EU negotiating team.
I think we should allow that to come to realisation and fruition in the coming while and we should then focus on the needs of the people.
Martin’s comment seemed an implicit criticism of the Tory Brexiters and DUP figures who have been raising objections in recent days to what the protocol deal may say.
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At 32, Kate Forbes is the youngest candidate to declare in the contest to be the next SNP leader. In her statement (see 11.29am), she describes herself as “a unifier”, emphasising her experience as finance secretary and promising to “unleash the full talent of the SNP”.
The initial news release and film is light on detail on key questions facing all leadership candidates: how to handle the ongoing row over Holyrood’s gender recognition bill, whether to challenge the UK government’s blocking on the bill through the courts and what to do with Nicola Sturgeon’s plans to run the next election as a ‘de facto referendum’.
Expect Forbes to be pressed on these in the coming days. She is known to have concerns about the bill, having previously asked ministers to pause its progress for further consideration.
Earlier today fellow contender Ash Regan, who resigned as a minister over the bill, tweeted that she was “utterly appalled by the misogynistic attacks on Kate Forbes because of her faith”.
Here is a profile of Forbes written by our colleague Aubrey Allegretti last week.
Forbes says she is 'unifier' and 'bold, brave and energised' as she launches campaign for SNP leadership
In her statement (see 11.06am) announcing her campaign for the SNP leadership, Kate Forbes stressed her credentials as a “unifier”. With Angus Robertson out of the race (see 10.06am), it is now being seen primarily as a contest between Humza Yousaf, the Scottish health secretary, and Forbes, the finance secretary, and Forbes implied that she was better placed to widen support for the SNP than Yousaf. She also implied her financial experience was a key advantage.
This is what she said:
Friends in the SNP, our nation and our movement are at a major crossroads. The choices that we make in the next few weeks will have a profound impact on our future and on our children’s future.
I can’t sit back and watch our nation thwarted on the road to self determination.
Our small independent neighbours enjoy wealthier, fairer and greener societies and so should we.
We urgently need to unleash the full talent of the SNP, the wider yes movement and the country at large.
We need to choose strong, competent leadership to deliver independence, – the leadership that I can offer.
I believe we need someone who can unite our party and movement. I’m a unifier. I’ll reach out and listen so that every member feels valued and able to contribute.
That’s also important if we’re to persuade others of the merits of independence.
Right now, we also need somebody with a grip on our economy and our finances.
In the throes of a cost of living crisis and the need to plan for independence, my years managing Scotland’s budget and economy have given me the experience that we need to do just that.
More than anything, we need a leader who’s bold, brave and energised, fresh faced and ready for new challenges. Somebody who inspires your confidence as an SNP member and who inspires the confidence of the people of Scotland to vote for a better future.
I am that leader. And I want to lead our party into better days with integrity and commitment for the sake of your children and my children.
Kate Forbes enters races to be next SNP leader and Scottish first minister
Kate Forbes, Scotland’s finance secretary, has confirmed that she is standing to be SNP leader and the next first minister.
As my colleague Aubrey Allegretti reports, Sadiq Khan, the mayor of London, has announced that free school meals will be offered to all primary school pupils across London for a year.
Alison Garnham, chief executive of the Child Poverty Action Group, welcomed the news this morning, saying:
This is really fantastic news. It will help stop hunger and stigma in London classrooms and take pressure off the many London families who just can’t manage as prices soar. The mayor’s laudable intervention highlights the government’s failure to act for children.
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Starmer restates offer to help Sunak push through NI protocol deal against wishes of Tory Brexiters
Keir Starmer has restated his offer to help the government push through a deal on the Northern Ireland protocol against the opposition of Tory Brexiters. On a visit to Thurrock in Essex, he told reporters:
There is a window of opportunity to move forward. The UK and the EU have obviously edged closer together. The question now is whether the prime minister is strong enough to get it through his own backbenches.
What I have said on Northern Ireland, the national interest comes first. So we will put party politics to one side. We will vote with the government and so the prime minister doesn’t have to rely on his backbenches.
We in the Labour party believe country first and party second. I am inviting the prime minister to do the same thing.
Starmer’s offer is a lot more self-serving than it sounds. For a start, Sunak won’t necessarily need to put the Northern Ireland protocol deal to a vote (although some MPs may find a way of engineering a Commons division on the proposals). By offering to back the government in a vote, Starmer is trying to drive a wedge between Sunak and Tory Brexiters in the European Research Group, whom he described in a speech last month (when he first made this offer) as a “Brexit purity cult”.
In the binary world of Brexit politics, any deal endorsed by Starmer must be immediately suspect to the ERG.
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Any deal with EU on NI protocol that did not have DUP support would be 'disastrous', says senior Tory MP
In a report for the Times today, Henry Zeffman, Patrick Maguire and Bruno Waterfield say that Rishi Sunak would be willing to conclude a deal with the EU on the Northern Ireland protocol that did not have DUP support. They report:
The government is increasingly positive about keeping the DUP on board — but would not necessarily see its objections as a fatal blow to the negotiations. A Whitehall source said that it would be “unhelpful” to “set a bar that is not necessarily in the interests of those we are trying to negotiate for” …
A government source said: “The prime minister’s focus throughout this whole process has been to ensure we address and find solutions to the practical problems faced by the people of Northern Ireland, we protect the Belfast agreement in all its dimensions and we safeguard Northern Ireland’s status in our union.”
But this morning Sir Bernard Jenkin, a leading Tory Brexiter, said that any agreement that did not have the support of the DUP would be “disastrous”. He told Times Radio:
If it doesn’t get the support of both communities in Northern Ireland it is just going to make things worse because it will cement in place an agreement that has destroyed power-sharing in Northern Ireland.
I recognise that there is progress in the negotiations and so does the DUP, but unless we can get some fundamental principles sorted out then there won’t be power-sharing and we can’t have an agreement with the EU.
I don’t think he [Sunak] has any intention of making an agreement with the EU that reinforces the collapse of power-sharing in Northern Ireland. It would be completely disastrous.
Angus Robertson, one-time favourite, rules out standing to be next SNP leader
Angus Robertson, cabinet secretary for the constitution, external affairs and culture in the Scottish government, and for 10 years leader of the SNP group at Westminster, has ruled out standing to replace Nicola Sturgeon as party leader and first minister.
In a message posted on Twitter, he says that as the father of two very young children “the time is not right for me and my family to take on such a huge commitment”.
When Sturgeon announced her resignation last week, bookmakers initially made Robertson favourite to replace her. But Robertson was first elected as an SNP MP in 2001 and he has served as the party’s deputy leader. Sturgeon has not backed anyone to succeed her, but in her resignation speech she said the party needed someone able to “reach across the divide in Scottish politics” and “someone about whom the mind of almost everyone in the country is not already made up”. That implied a preference for someone less seasoned and more fresh-faced than Robertson.
Humza Yousaf, the Scottish health secretary, and Ash Regan, the former Scottish community safety minister, have already announced they are standing, and Kate Forbes, the finance secretary, is expected to reveal today whether or not she will be joining the race too.
Sunak holds back Northern Ireland protocol deal amid concerns from DUP and Tory Brexiters
Good morning. Rishi Sunak never had much involvement with Northern Ireland before he became prime minister, but this week he is learning one of the golden rules of Stormont politics; nothing ever, ever gets agreed on time.
Over the weekend it was widely reported that Sunak hoped to announce a deal with the EU on the Northern Ireland protocol this week, perhaps today, with a statement in the Commons on Tuesday. But this morning the government is briefing that it is not coming today, tomorrow is looking unlikely, and the DUP is saying it does not even expect a deal this week. Sammy Wilson, the DUP’s chief whip, was on Sky News this morning and, asked if he expected a deal this week, he replied:
No I don’t. He [Rishi Sunak] realises that there are barriers and hills to climb. He knows the kind of issues that have to be dealt with. I hope he does go into negotiations with a full understanding of what is required.
There are reasons why political negotiations involving Northern Ireland never wrap up on time. Partly it is because divisions are more entrenched than they are in the rest of the UK. But it is also because, in unionism at least, intransigence tends to get rewarded. Before Brexit, the last big constitutional change in Northern Ireland was the Good Friday agreement. The Ulster Unionist was the leading unionist party at the time, and it was in favour. But it subsequently got hammered in elections, and was overtaken by the DUP (Democratic Unionist party), which was against the GFA. The DUP is worried that, if it backs a deal on the protocol that turns out to be unacceptable to hardline unionism, it will suffer the same fate as the UUP.
And on the subject of “what is required” from the new protocol deal, Wilson told Sky News:
If a deal is agreed which still keeps us in the EU single market, as ministers in the Northern Ireland assembly we would be required by law to implement that deal and we are not going to do that because we believe such an arrangement is designed to take us out of the United Kingdom and indeed would take us out of the United Kingdom.
Increasingly we would have to agree EU laws which diverge from UK laws and in doing so would separate our own country from the United Kingdom.
We are British and we expect to be governed by British law, not Brussels law. We would certainly not collaborate in administering Brussels law in our part of the United Kingdom.
Wilson also complained that the government gone into the negotiations with the EU with “an attitude of defeat”, conceding too much ground.
Sunak could, of course, agree a deal with the EU without DUP approval. But if that were to happen, there would be no chance of restoring power-sharing in Northern Ireland (one of Sunak’s aims).
And Sunak does not just have to worry about the eight DUP MPs in the Commons; hardline Brexiters in the Conservative party pose a much greater threat. Some of them are from the European Research Group, but Boris Johnson and his supporters are also raising concerns about the deal Sunak seems to have agreed with the EU, and this morning Simon Clarke, the former levelling up secretary and a key Liz Truss supporter, also criticised Sunak’s strategy. He told the Today programme that Sunak should not be shelving the Northern Ireland protocol bill, the legislation stuck in the House of Lords that, if it ever became law, would allow the UK government to ignore parts of the protocol.
Clarke told Today:
It is absolutely imperative tactically to give our negotiators the strongest possible hand to play with Brussels. Also the protocol legislation may well be the cleanest way to fix this problem.
If the perception is there that the bill is moribund then that will, I am afraid, weaken our hand very considerably. We need to make sure that if a deal is struck here it is genuinely a better one than that we can achieve through our own legislation to fix the protocol.
I think that is quite a high bar because it is going to involve the EU accepting that Northern Ireland cannot be subject to either EU law or in the single market. That would be a big move on their part.
I will post more from his interview shortly.
Here is the agenda for the day.
11am: Humza Yousaf, Scotland’s health secretary, holds an event in West Dunbartonshire to promote his campaign for the SNP leadership.
11.30am: Downing Street holds a lobby briefing.
Morning: Keir Starmer and Yvette Cooper, the shadow home secretary, are on a visit in Essex to promote Labour’s plans for a clampdown on neighbourhood drug dealing.
Morning: Suella Braverman, the home secretary, is on a visit in the north-west of England to promote new measures from the Home Office to tackle domestic abuse.
2.30pm: Michael Gove, the levelling up secretary, takes questions in the Commons.
After 3.30pm: MPs hold a general debate on Ukraine. Liz Truss, the former PM, is expected to contribute, in what will be her first Commons speech since she left No 10.
I’ll try to monitor the comments below the line (BTL) but it is impossible to read them all. If you have a direct question, do include “Andrew” in it somewhere and I’m more likely to find it. I do try to answer questions, and if they are of general interest I will post the question and reply above the line (ATL), although I can’t promise to do this for everyone.
If you want to attract my attention quickly, it is probably better to use Twitter. I’m on @AndrewSparrow.
Alternatively, you can email me at andrew.sparrow@theguardian.com
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