Early evening summary
James Cleverly, the foreign secretary, has said countries should not hold back from supplying Ukraine with arms. Opening a Commons debate on Ukraine within the last hour, he said:
If anyone in the international community or amongst our allies was thinking of holding back their stocks for a rainy day – this is the rainy day.
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Here is a round-up of some comment around today from Brexit watchers on the state of play in relation to the Northern Ireland protocol.
David Henig, a trade expert, says in an article for Encompass that Rishi Sunak may not be able to carry his party with him. He says:
Until last week even some Sunak opponents in his party were willing to give him the benefit of the doubt, one heard phrases such as “not rocking the boat for Northern Ireland”. But the mood has changed in days, as blood has been scented, in particular by former PM Boris Johnson and his supporters. Notwithstanding causing the mess, it is now suggested he is the man for the fix.
Raoul Ruparel, who was a Europe adviser in No 10 when Theresa May was PM, says that the European Research Group may be using the DUP as “cover” for opposing a deal.
This has very early 2019 vibes, ERG using DUP as a cover to oppose something. But we know from Boris negotiation that they are willing to agree to something which DUP doesn't support. JRM in particular was part of Boris team that totally turned on what DUP wanted in late 2019 pic.twitter.com/dTo7cI65qW
— Raoul Ruparel (@RaoulRuparel) February 20, 2023
Hugh Bennett, a former Brexit adviser to Boris Johnson and Theresa May, says in an article for Politico that it would make sense to pass the Northern Ireland protocol bill, even if a deal is agreed.
The complex society and history of Northern Ireland means that it is inevitable that arrangements have to be flexible enough to evolve over time, as evidenced by the Belfast (Good Friday) Agreement itself. Both the U.K. and the EU need to accept that it is not simply a case of “doing a deal” and walking away.
Either way, this underlines why it is essential that the U.K. retains its own ability to swiftly make changes in response to problems that may arise in the future, particularly if the EU is unable or unwilling to do so. This is why it is so important that U.K. continues to pass the Northern Ireland Protocol Bill into U.K. law even if a deal is agreed.
But Peter Foster, the FT’s Brexit expert, disagrees.
Very good @HughRBennett. NI Protocol explainer via @politico reminds everyone about Article 10, dual regs issue and fact that, if EU won’t change text, there’s big questions on legal force of any buffers in ECJ role. BUT…1/2 https://t.co/oblEsCn0BP
— Peter Foster (@pmdfoster) February 20, 2023
He persists in fiction that NI Protocol Bill would be effective in addressing future rows — it wouldn’t. UK unilaterally changing an intern’l treaty just causes another row, not a fix!
— Peter Foster (@pmdfoster) February 20, 2023
All this reminds us that constructive ambiguity only works if peeps prepared to play along2/2
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