Afternoon summary
Paul Johnson, the director of the Institute for Fiscal Studies, has said HS2 could end up as a total waste of money. (See 2.45pm.) He was speaking as No 10 hinted that the phase two leg from Birmingham to Manchester might be postponed, rather than cancelled outright. (See 12.35pm.)
Wendy Chamberlain, the Lib Dem chief whip, has told her party conference this afternoon that the Lib Dems would stop ministers receiving a pay-off (worth almost £17,000 at the current rate) when they leave office if they have only served in government for a short period of time.
Updated
The full list of motions passed at the Lib Dem conference so far is available here.
More than one million NHS appointments have now been cancelled as result of strikes, figures show
The four days of NHS strikes in England earlier this month impacted almost 130,000 inpatient and outpatient appointments, PA Media reports. PA says:
The latest data from NHS England means more than 1m appointments have been cancelled as a result of industrial action in the health service, which has been ongoing since December 2022.
Consultants took strike action on 19 and 20 September, and were joined by junior doctors on 20 September. The junior doctors’ strike then continued until 7am on 23 September.
As a result, 129,913 inpatient and outpatient hospital appointments were cancelled in England.
There were a further 3,581 cancellations in mental health, learning disability and community settings also recorded.
The total number of appointments impacted since industrial action began in the health service in December 2022 now stands at more than 1 million.
If community and mental health figures are included, the total rises to 1.1 million – though this will not reflect the overall number of actual cancellations, due to some duplication of data.
Updated
Simon Clarke, who was levelling up secretary in Liz Truss’s cabinet and who is one of a minority of Conservative MPs wanting his party to promote housebuilding more aggressively, has congratulated the Young Liberals for getting the Lib Dems to endorse a national housebuilding target. (See 4.14pm.)
A sincere well done to the Young Liberals. On a cross-party basis, this is the right thing to have done. Unbelievable to see MPs like Tim Farron denouncing building homes.
A sincere well done to the Young Liberals. On a cross-party basis, this is the right thing to have done. Unbelievable to see MPs like Tim Farron denouncing building homes. https://t.co/FnZbtrYmwC
— Simon Clarke MP (@SimonClarkeMP) September 25, 2023
Here is a question from a reader.
Sunak seems to be acting much more boldly. Do you have any insight into the change in his behavior? He seems to think he suddenly has acquired a mandate. Do you think that being in the position for a year is part of that, or is it something else?
The reader is right. After almost a year in No 10, which has seen Rishi Sunak announce bold initiatives on small boats and the Northern Ireland protocol, but during which he has mostly just stuck to his mainstream five priorities, within the last week or so there’s been an upgrade and a much more interesting Sunak 2.0 has emerged. In some respects, this involves tacking to the right (net zero, inheritance tax), but in other respects he is taking positions that are not particularly ideological and which could conceivably come from a Labour counterpart (HS2, smoking, A-levels).
Why, and why now? I think three factors explain what’s going on.
1) A conference rethink. Party leaders devote a huge amount of time to preparing their party conference speech, out of all proportion to the attention it gets. That is because it is one of the few moments when they can define themselves, at length, in the round, in their own terms, and guarantee a hearing from the media, and from the country at large. And Sunak has never delivered a speech to the Tory conference as leader, and so for him the pressure is particularly intense. He will have spent the summer thinking about the speech, and about what he wants to say about what he stands for.
2) Looming election. We’re now in the long phase of the general election, and Sunak needs a message that might give him some hope of winning. He has not had one until now. That’s because of his …
3) Dire ratings. Sunak’s priority as PM over the past 11 months has been to deliver stability and competence – qualities that were notably missing under his last two or three predecessors. You could call it the “not being useless” strategy. But, even though he has made the government more professional, he has not made it any more popular. If he is to have any chance at all of winning, he needs to try something else. That’s what he’s up to.
Updated
Former DPP questions need for Home Office inquiry into rules governing firearms officers using weapons
Ken Macdonald, a former director of public prosecutions, has questioned the need for the review ordered by the Home Office of the rules governing when it is lawful for firearms officers to use their weapons. (See 1.45pm.)
In an interview with the World at One on Radio 4, Macdonald, who is now a peer, said that the law already protects police officers who are acting in self defence. He told the programme:
If it’s being suggested that there should be additional protections for police officers over and above the normal protections which are available to all citizens, that’s quite a quite a tricky suggestion. And it’s quite difficult to conceive what those additional protections would be.
Of course, the police are perfectly entitled to use force within the rules. They’re typically entitled to exercise force in respect of self defence, and the laws that apply to all of us apply to the police.
If you start to create special laws protecting police officers who were involved in the use of force, and sometimes lethal force, then that might begin to call into question public confidence in the activities of police officers.
Macdonald said the law of self defence says “if a person does no more than they instinctively believe is necessary to protect themselves or another person from harm, then that’s the strongest evidence a court has that they are acting in lawful self defence”. That was “a broad and generous defence”, he said.
Macdonald also said that when prosecutors consider whether to charge officers who have used guns while on duty, they consider they pressure firearms officers are under
[Prosecutors] have to factor in very, very carefully, as I always did, the stress the police are under, the danger they’re under, the fact that they’re putting themselves at risk for all of us, and their courage.
That’s precisely why it’s so rare, so vanishingly rare, for police officers to be charged in these circumstances. I don’t think I ever authorised a charge against a police officer in these circumstances for precisely those reasons.
Macdonald stressed that he was not commenting on the case of the officer charged with murder following the shooting of Chris Kaba. But he said that for an officer to be charged like that was “extremely unusual”.
However Sir Mark Rowley, commissioner of the Metropolitan police, has welcomed the review. In an open letter to the home secretary released yesterday, he said he was glad the review was taking place.
He implied that he was particularly keen to see changes to the rules governing how inquests and misconduct hearings deal with officers accused of firing guns without justification, but he also said he wanted the inquiry to investigate “how CPS [Crown Prosecution Service] policy can strengthen the legal protection for officers who use force”.
As Peter Walker points out, a defeat for the party leadership at a Lib Dem conference does not generate feuding on anything like the scale that it does at Labour conference.
Lib Dem leadership defeated! Conference votes to restore national housing targets. A pushback against Operation Don’t Frighten the Tories.
Lib Dem leadership defeated! Conference votes to restore national housing targets. A pushback against Operation Don't Frighten the Tories.
— Peter Walker (@peterwalker99) September 25, 2023
In any other party this would count as civil war. But seeing as it’s the Lib Dems, I fully expected to see Tim Farron and Rob Blackie doing a drunken duet at Glee Club later.
In any other party this would count as civil war. But seeing as it's the Lib Dems, I fully expected to see Tim Farron and Rob Blackie doing a drunken duet at Glee Club later.
— Peter Walker (@peterwalker99) September 25, 2023
At the Conservative party conference, of course, there are no defeats, because members never vote on anything.
Lib Dem leadership suffers defeat at conference as members vote to retain national housebuilding target
All three amendments, including the “rebel” one committing the party to having an annual housing target of 380,000 new homes a year, have passed. (See 4.02pm.) And the motion as amended has passed too.
At the Lib Dem conference members are now voting on the housing motion, and on the amendments to it.
Tim Farron booed at Lib Dem conference as he dismisses call for national housingbuilding target as 'Thatcherism'
Here is the document with the motion on housing that Liberal Democrat members are currently debating, with the amendments.
Amendment one says: conference maintains its commitment to a national housing target of 380,000 new homes per year, to set a clear direction of travel and to indicate serious intent to address the housing crisis.
Conference believes that local housing targets need to exist as part of delivering an overall national target; local and central government share responsibility for delivering the housing we desperately need. Local planning authorities should cooperate at regional or sub-regional level to ensure that they deliver homes where they are needed.
The debate was opened by Helen Morgan, the MP for North Shropshire. According to PA Media, as she said the Lib Dems would “build 150,000 new homes for social rent every year”, there were shouts of “Where?”
There were also boos when she said:
National housing targets do not work. They didn’t work a decade ago … they won’t work in the future.
Moving amendment one, Janey Little, chair of the Young Liberals, said young people wanted national housing targets. She said:
We as young people feel ignored and let down by those at the top of our party. This is not the first time we have had to plead our case.
But Tim Farron, the former party leader, described the Young Liberals’ amendment as “Thatcherism”. He said:
If there was a credible amendment today to build 380,000 council houses a year, I would back it.
I reckon I can get away with being a rebel again now, I do not give a monkey’s, but amendment one does not do that. It is a vague and vacuous target, and we have had vague targets for years – they are not radical, they are not liberal, they are not new, they are not effective.
Vague targets let and empower developers to build the houses that they want but never … the homes that we desperately need, especially that young people actually need. The authors of amendment one do not mean it, but it is pure Thatcherism.
Farron was booed at this point. But he described the amendment as an “electoral gift to the Tories, including right now in Mid [Bedfordshire]”, adding:
I will take the hit to stand up against nimbyism, but I will not take an electoral hit to fight the corner of corporate investors.
Updated
Lib Dem leadership faces conference rebellion over plan to drop support for national housebuilding target
In Bournemouth Lib Dem members are debating housing, and as Peter Walker reports, they’re having a proper policy argument about national targets.
Lib Dems are facing a conference-floor rebellion on their abolition of a national target for housebuilding. Top brass say such targets don’t work – lots of members, especially younger ones, disagree, amid fears they are pandering to nimbyism to court Tory voters.
Lib Dems are facing a conference-floor rebellion on their abolition of a national target for housebuilding. Top brass say such targets don't work - lots of members, especially younger ones, disagree, amid fears they are pandering to nimbyism to court Tory voters.
— Peter Walker (@peterwalker99) September 25, 2023
This debate is getting very feisty. Tim Farron, ex-LD leader, just got booed by some delegates and had the mic cut for going over time with a passionate speech against an amendment to restore a national target to the housing policy.
This debate is getting very feisty. Tim Farron, ex-LD leader, just got booed by some delegates and had the mic cut for going over time with a passionate speech against an amendment to restore a national target to the housing policy.
— Peter Walker (@peterwalker99) September 25, 2023
It was, in fairness, a great speech by Farron. National targets, he said, do “naff all” to build houses. He called the amendment “the most right wing thing I’ve seen at Lib Dem conference since we sent Liz Truss off undercover.”
It was, in fairness, a great speech by Farron. National targets, he said, do "naff all" to build houses. He called the amendment "the most right wing thing I've seen at Lib Dem conference since we sent Liz Truss off undercover."
— Peter Walker (@peterwalker99) September 25, 2023
Updated
The Liberal Democrats have received a £1m boost to their election war chest after a member left the party money in his will, PA Media reports.
One source said the donation, which is their biggest since 2019, would be “transformational” to the party’s campaign. The windfall, which came from a legacy donation made by deceased former lawyer and longstanding member John Faulkner, is said to be enough to recruit extra staff in dozens of seats, PA says.
A Lib Dem source said:
We are hugely grateful for this donation that will be transformational for the party in winning more seats in the blue wall at the next election.
We have been getting interest from more and more senior business leaders, including former Conservative donors, who are appalled by the actions of this government.
Rishi Sunak trashing his commitments to net zero has underlined that he has turned his back on the business community and the country’s economic future.
Updated
Olympic rowing champion James Cracknell will run as a Conservative candidate at the next general election, PA Media reports. The two-time Olympic gold medallist has been confirmed as the Tory candidate in Colchester, where local MP Will Quince is standing down. The Conservatives currently hold a 9,000 vote majority over Labour in the Essex constituency, PA says.
HS2 may end up as total waste of money, says head of Institute for Fiscal Studies
HS2 may be a total waste of money, according to Paul Johnson, the director of the Institute for Fiscal Studies, who said he wishes that it had never got under way in the first place.
Speaking to Times Radio, Johnson said:
This whole thing, it just makes me want to weep. It just makes me despair. I mean, the original sin, as it were, was agreeing to do it in the first place.
It was obviously going to be hugely expensive, with relatively little gain from it relative to pretty much anything else you could have done with the railway or transport system, whether that’s making rail connections across the north vastly better or actually building a bunch of bypasses and improving the roundabouts in the road network. And we knew that this was not the best way you could spend that amount of money. We also know how difficult we find it to build these projects.
I just, as I say, wish it had never happened in the first place.
It rather looks like we’re going to totally waste the money on this in producing a rail at a cost of tens of billions which will get you from Birmingham to central London less quickly than you can do at the moment.
Johnson was referring to reports that Rishi Sunak is planning to axe not just the leg from Birmingham to Manchester, but also the final six-mile stretch going from Old Oak Common to Euston, in central London.
Updated
I am sorrry comments have had to close. That’s because we are getting comments on the Chris Kaba case that were deemed to pose a legal risk.
No 10 declines to say whether Sunak glad to have Donald Trump endorse his net zero policy
And here are are some more lines from the Downing Street lobby briefing.
The PM’s spokesperson refused to comment on whether or not the government might cut inheritance tax, saying (as usual) that he would not comment on what might be in a future budget or autumn statement. But, when asked about the PM’s view, the spokesperson said Grant Shapps, the defence secretary, talked in an interview yesterday about the considerations a chancellor would have to make on this topic. Asked specifically if Rishi Sunak agreed with Shapps when he said yesterday that inheritance tax was “punitive and unfair”, the spokesperson said he had not specifically raised that with Sunak.
The spokesperson did not deny that plans to publish a bill banning conversion practices have been delayed. Originally ministers promised draft legislation would be published before the end of the parliamentary session later in the autumn, but there are reports the government has now shelved plans for a bill. Asked to confirm this, the spokesperson said:
So-called conversion therapy is abhorrent and people shouldn’t be harmed or harassed simply for who they are. I don’t have an update for you on the ongoing work on this issue. We are looking into it because it is a complex and challenging area. The Scottish government have announced they’re taking more time on their proposals.
The spokesperson declined to say whether Sunak was glad to have Donald Trump endorse his new net zero policy. The former US president said: “I always knew Sunak was smart, that he wasn’t going to destroy and bankrupt his nation for fake climate alarmists that don’t have a clue.” Asked about the comment, the spokesperson just said that there had been “a lot of commentary” on this issue and that Sunak remained committed to addressing climate change.
The spokesperson said the UK and the US would continue to operate their joint military base on the island of Diego Garcia if the UK were to hand sovereignty of the Chagos Islands to Mauritius. In his Daily Mail column at the weekend the former PM Boris Johnson argued that the islands should stay British and that, if Mauritius took over, the future of the military base would be under threat. The spokesperson said talks with Mauritius were under way, but that any agreement would have to ensure the continued operation of the joint UK/US base. Asked if Johnson could “rest easy”, the spokesperson replied: “When it comes to the military base, we are clear on our position.”
Updated
No 10 rejects claim Braverman's police firearms review implies criticism of CPS charging decision in Chris Kaba case
Yesterday Suella Braverman, the home secretary, used a thread on X (Twitter) to announce that she was launching a review into the rules that determine when it is lawful for armed police officers to shoot people. She said:
They mustn’t fear ending up in the dock for carrying out their duties. Officers risking their lives to keep us safe have my full backing & I will do everything in my power to support them. 2/3
They mustn’t fear ending up in the dock for carrying out their duties.
— Suella Braverman MP (@SuellaBraverman) September 24, 2023
Officers risking their lives to keep us safe have my full backing & I will do everything in my power to support them. 2/3
Braverman was responding to the decision by firearms officers in the Metropolitan police force to hand in their weapons because they are angry about the decision to charge a colleague with murder following the shooting of Chris Kaba
Braverman was criticised for her comments on the grounds that she was arguably in breach of contempt of court law, which bans the publication of material which would create a substantial risk of seriously prejudicing a trial. This applies to material that could sway a jury, although normally it applies in cases where the information implies guilt, not innocence.
At the Downing Street lobby briefing, asked if by announcing the review the home secretary was implying that the Crown Prosecution Service was wrong to change the unnamed officer with murder, the PM’s spokesperson said he did not accept that. He went on:
Obviously, the government makes no comment on an ongoing, live case. This is separate.
The spokesperson would not say whether Sunak was aware of the review before Braverman announced it. Asked if Sunak knew this was coming, the spokesperson said he did not want to get into any discussions that took place. It was a government review, led by the Home Office, he said.
Sunak said this morning firearms officers needed more clarity about the law. Asked what needed clarifying, the spokesperson replied:
That is something that is going to be considered as part of the review. I think the [Home Office] will set out the terms in a bit more detail but it is important, given the level of power that they have and indeed the level of lethality they are able to deploy – albeit in extremely rare circumstances, as borne out by the latest statistics – to consider it through this review.
Updated
Rishi Sunak’s recent shift towards the populist right could be good news for Liberal Democrats in so-called blue wall seats, a fringe event at the Lib Dem conference has heard – so long as Sunak is unable to create a cohesive “brand” with his new policies.
The event, hosted by the currently-ubiquitous Tony Blair Institute, saw Tom Lubbock, co-founder of research and focus group company JL Partners give details of focus groups they had run in Esher and Walton, the Surrey seat currently held by Dominic Raab, which the Lib Dems are targeting.
“Voters know absolutely nothing about you,” Lubbock told the event about the view on the Lib Dems. He went on:
That’s the bad news. The good news is voters know absolutely nothing about you.
This meant, he said, the party could present a “cuddly” clean slate, less tainted by the 2010 coalition.
Monica Harding, the Lib Dems’ candidate in Esher and Walton, said that while Sunak had been seen as a potential obstacle to the Lib Dems winning over Tory voters put off by Boris Johnson and Liz Truss, his move to the right on areas like immigration and net zero was “not aligned to the kind of one nation Tories” in the constituency.
Lubbock, however, warned that while there was currently no real sense among votes of who Sunak was, leaving him “buffeted around by events”, this could change – possibly to the Tories’ benefit. He said:
They’ve started to build a sort of brand Rishi Sunak that is slightly contrarian to the status quo, slightly anti-the prevailing wisdom on things like net zero.
Updated
And here are some more lines from what was said at the No 10 lobby briefing about HS2.
The PM’s spokesperson refused to say it would be “inconceivable” for HS2 not to extend all the way to Euston. Jeremy Hunt, the chancellor, said this in January. But, when asked to confirm that was still the government’s position, the spokesperson declined to do so.
The spokesperson would not comment on reports that Rishi Sunak has asked for a review of the costs of building the last leg of HS2 into central London, covering the six miles from Old Oak Common to Euston. It has been claimed that Sunak intends to scrap this too, because it has become too expensive.
The spokesperson said HS2 had already brought benefits to Old Oak Common. It was bringing jobs and homes to the area, he said. He made the comment in response to a question about whether it would be a joke for HS2 to end at Old Oak Common, not Euston.
The spokesperson said he was not aware of any plans for Sunak to meet Andy Burnham, the mayor of Greater Manchester, to discuss HS2. Burnham has said he should be consulted before a decision to scrap the Manchester leg gets taken.
The spokesperson refused to say whether or not Sunak would be taking the train when he travels to Manchester for the Conservative party conference at the weekend.
The spokesperson said the government would continue to have a good record on levelling up. He said:
Without getting into a specific project, I think the government has and will continue to have a good record about levelling up and driving growth in the north.
Updated
No 10 says there is precedent for delaying parts of HS2 due to 'affordability', in new hint Manchester leg to be postponed
At the Downing Street lobby briefing this morning the PM’s spokesperson did nothing to quell speculation that Rishi Sunak might announce a long delay to the start of work on the second phase of HS2, rather than its outright cancellation for good. (See 10.34am.) There was precedent for this, he said. He told journalists:
We’ve talked previously and previously announced decisions to rephase parts of the project because of affordability pressures, which were exacerbated by inflation. But beyond that, I don’t have more to add to what we discussed last week on HS2.
I know there is continued speculation on this, and indeed many other topics. But for my part I’m not going to get into that.
That seemed like a hint as to what might be coming, although the spokesperson did not elaborate, or give any indication as to when a decision might be announced.
The spokesperson also said that, when Sunak answered a question this morning by saying that speculation about the future of HS2 was wrong (see 9.41am), he was not saying that the reports saying it would be delayed or scrapped were wrong. “I think he was talking about it being wrong to speculate, rather than the details,” the spokesperson said. (To me, it sounded as if Sunak was just saying that notion that he was abandoning levelling up was “not right”.)
Updated
In a short thread on X/Twitter, Lewis Goodall from the News Agents podcast says that, if the UK government cannot build a high-speed rail line to Manchester, then it is hard to see how it will manage to implement Labour’s net zero strategy (which will involve a massive expansion of renewable energy production, as well as an enormous overhaul of the electricity grid, which currently does not have the capacity to support the drive to net zero).
All the focus on HS2 is on what happens next rather than the last 10 years. Whatever decision is made there are serious questions about the competence of the British state and successive administrations that a 330-mile high-speed train line has proven (apparently) impossible.
All the focus on HS2 is on what happens next rather than the last 10 years. Whatever decision is made there are serious questions about the competence of the British state and successive administrations that a 330 mile high-speed train line has proven (apparently) impossible.
— Lewis Goodall (@lewis_goodall) September 25, 2023
Countries across the west have built equivalent infrastructure. If we can’t do it here (partly as a result of planning and the extra costs delays have added to the scheme) the question has to be whether Britain is really capable of competing.
Countries across the west have built equivalent infrastructure. If we can’t do it here (partly as a result of planning and the extra costs delays have added to the scheme) the question has to be whether Britain is really capable of competing.
— Lewis Goodall (@lewis_goodall) September 25, 2023
Ending the line at Old Oak Common, only the 2nd high speed line in Britain creating a transport link between two places no-one had ever sought, at enormous cost, would be a memorial to that state incompetence. Escalator to nowhere territory.
Ending the line at Old Oak Common, only the 2nd high speed line in Britain creating a transport link between two places no-one had ever sought, at enormous cost, would be a memorial to that state incompetence. Escalator to nowhere territory. https://t.co/YDJb4wiWop
— Lewis Goodall (@lewis_goodall) September 25, 2023
Btw if that state capacity really is so hollow it poses major questions for any party with ambition. Eg for Labour net zero is a far, far more ambitious target which will require far more state direction. If something as 20th century as HS2 proves a struggle, what hope?
Btw if that state capacity really is so hollow it poses major questions for any party with ambition. Eg for Labour net zero is a far, far more ambitious target which will require far more state direction. If something as 20th century as HS2 proves a struggle, what hope?
— Lewis Goodall (@lewis_goodall) September 25, 2023
Updated
This morning the Liberal Democrats have been debating a policy paper on food and farming at their conference in Bournemouth. To coincide with the debate, Ed Davey, the party leader, has been visiting an agricultural college, and posing for a photocall with the party’s candidate for Winchester, who is a vet.
Here is an extract from the policy paper:
We would end the national disgrace of food poverty, ending it within a decade by lifting millions out of deep financial poverty and providing nutritious and healthy food to thousands of children …
We would strengthen the UK’s food security and tackle food price rises, by sustainably growing more food domestically, supporting and investing in our farmers and fostering resilient and sustainable trade relationships abroad.
We would make the UK a leader in alternative foods and ways of producing them, by investing in a food and farming research and innovation fund, as well as providing an effective and safe system for bringing products to the market.
Updated
Staff to strike at more than 50 universities this week
Around 20,000 university workers are out on strike this week at more than 50 universities across the UK, despite a dramatic last-minute scaling back of industrial action.
Strikes had been set to go ahead at 142 UK universities this week as part of a long-running dispute over pay and working conditions, but it emerged last week that two thirds of branches of the University and College Union (UCU) had declined to take part.
As a result, lecturers, librarians and technicians will stop work for five days at just 42 institutions, including the universities of Manchester, Dundee, Leeds, South Wales, Liverpool, Newcastle, Oxford, Keele and Ulster.
Staff at a further 10 universities will hold strike action on at least one day this week. The UCU action coincides with freshers’ week at many universities, which are welcoming new students on campus. The strikes are the last that can take place under the union’s current mandate and a new ballot on further industrial action opened last week.
Updated
Ed Davey confirms Lib Dems no longer committed to putting income tax up by 1p in pound to fund public services
The Liberal Democrats would hike levies on banks and large companies rather than high earners, Ed Davey has suggested, as he abandoned a longstanding party pledge to put a penny on income tax. As PA Media reports, reversing cuts to the surcharge on the financial sector and increasing the burden on water, oil and gas firms would help to fund the party’s newly adopted multibillion-pound policy platform, Davey indicated. PA says:
Davey said the Lib Dem commitment – dating back to 1992 – to raise income tax by 1p to improve public services is unsustainable in the current economic climate. Originally the money raised was earmarked for education, but at the last election the party said it would use it to fund the NHS.
Speaking from Bournemouth to broadcast studios, Davey suggested the burden should instead fall on companies making “huge profits” while people struggle with the cost of living.
He indicated that the income tax policy would be abandoned even for the richest in society.
Asked on BBC Radio 4’s Today programme if he thinks wealthier individuals should pay more tax, Davey said: “I think the taxes are going up quite a lot already under the Conservatives.”
On whether they should go up further, he said: “No … because over the next few years you’re seeing a big increase in taxes that are already baked in and I think there is a real danger that if we don’t ask those organisations who are doing really well, like the oil and gas companies, like the banks, like the water companies, they have the money.”
The party adopted an early version of its manifesto at its annual conference on Sunday with policies aimed at winning over voters in Tory heartlands. It will lay out a fully costed document closer to the next general election, expected next year.
Among its policies is a £5bn social care pledge which would see people “be looked after where they want to be at home” and improved GP and mental health services.
Davey has argued that the social care package would help to pay for itself by saving £3bn elsewhere on the NHS, for example by freeing up hospital beds and relieving pressure on care homes.
Asked where the rest of the money would come from, he told ITV’s Good Morning Britain: “We have argued that we’ll put forward a costed manifesto which will set out all our policies and explain where the money comes from.
“But in this parliament I’ve given a flavour of that. So we’ve talked about those organisations, businesses, that have been making huge profits, doing really well, and other people are struggling with the cost of living.
“We’ve suggested some taxes on those organisations. So the Liberal Democrats were the first to talk about a windfall tax on the oil and gas companies that are making tens of billions of pounds of profit after President Putin invaded Ukraine… we’ve also talked about reversing the tax cuts that the Conservatives have given to the banks.”
UPDATE: As Peter Walker reports, Davey also said even a rise in personal taxes affecting just the wealthiest individuals is now ruled out by the party.
Updated
Nearly 1,900 Scottish schools are expected to be affected by a three-day strike this week after a “bizarre” split between three large public sector unions over a revised pay offer.
The GMB and Unite unions have called off their strikes by cleaners, caretakers and cooks in up to 11 council areas after deciding to put a new offer from Cosla, the umbrella body for Scotland’s 32 councils, to their members.
Unison said on Monday morning its members would continue to strike this week in primary and secondary schools in 24 councils, even though they were also consulting staff on the offer.
In a highly unusual split between the three unions, Unite officials wrote to their members late last week saying Unison’s decision to continue the strike could mean they would need to cross Unison picket lines when they went back to work.
The letter said:
Unfortunately our colleagues in Unison have taken the bizarre decision to continue with the strike action while balloting their members.
This presupposes that their members will follow their recommendations to reject the offer, however, if their members vote to accept then they will need to explain to those members why they lost three days’ pay and pension contributions.
Mark Ferguson, Unison Scotland’s local government leader, said they were worried about the impact on jobs and services because the increased £580m pay deal, which will increase pay for the lowest paid by £2,000, had to be funded through job cuts and councils’ existing budgets. He told the BBC:
Our members feel very strongly that the underinvestment in local government, they’re having to pick up the pieces of that and what they don’t want is our communities suffering any further.
Our members don’t want to take industrial action – this is an absolute last resort. I’m a parent myself. But if we don’t take a stand then the longer-term impact on our children is going to get far worse with the cuts.
Updated
Helen Pidd has written a good analysis of the risks for Rishi Sunak of scrapping the Manchester leg of HS2. Here is an extract.
So what are the political risks for Sunak if he scraps the Manchester leg? Businesses overwhelmingly back the project. But polling by YouGov since 2019 has consistently found voter ambivalence. In May this year, 26% of respondents said they “neither support or oppose” HS2; 18% “tend to support”; and 16% “tend to oppose”. More people hate the idea than love it: 20% “strongly oppose”; and 8% “strongly support”.
The lack of full-bodied support among the public is perhaps unsurprising. Rail travel remains a minority pursuit in the UK, with more people commuting by bus than train. In England, the average person made just 15 train trips last year, with 82% of all journeys of 10 miles or more being taken by car.
What people definitely do not like, though, is the feeling that their area is being short-changed. HS2 was the leading investment project of George Osborne’s “northern powerhouse” concept and of Boris Johnson’s rebranding of the idea as “levelling up”.
If HS2 is scrapped, what will the north of England have to show for 13 years of Conservative rule? Some loud but fundamentally underpowered metro mayors, and a smattering of small-scale projects – a road upgrade here, a town centre beautification scheme there – that mean little outside those local areas.
And here is the article in full.
Updated
Burnham says Sunak should call general election first if he wants mandate to cancel HS2 phase 2
Andy Burnham, the Labour mayor of Greater Manchester, has told Times Radio that delaying the construction of the HS2 link from Birmingham to Manchester would be better than cancelling it completely. This is from Kate McCann from Times Radio.
A way through HS2 mess? Andy Burnham tells @TimesRadio he would be open to a delay to the Manchester leg of HS2 – anything but scrapping the project completely. Delays cost, but scrapping and then going ahead at a later date would potentially cost more.
A way through HS2 mess? Andy Burnham tells @TimesRadio he would be open to a delay to the Manchester leg of HS2 - anything but scrapping the project completely. Delays cost, but scrapping and then going ahead at a later date would potentially cost more.
— Kate McCann (@KateEMcCann) September 25, 2023
In a story for the Independent Jon Stone says this is the option that Sunak is now considering. “Rishi Sunak is set to delay the northern phase of HS2 by up to seven years as part of a bid to scrap the project in the long term,” Stone writes.
The problem with this is that delaying phase two for up to seven years might be seen as almost as bad as cancellation by many people (if not by Andy Burnham).
In his Times Radio interview Burnham also said that, if Sunak wanted to cancel the second stage of HS2, he should call an election and get a mandate for that first. He said:
The Conservative party stood before voters here in Bolton and said, we will level you up, we will invest in the north of England, we will ensure that the north gets the same standard of infrastructure as elsewhere. And if they pull the plug, well quite frankly, those commitments that they made will be utterly meaningless.
And I would say they shouldn’t really be taking this decision without calling a general election because it would just not be right for them to do what they’re reportedly planning to do when they do not have a mandate to do it.
Updated
The former Labour prime minister Gordon Brown has added his voice to those urging Rishi Sunak not to scrap the second phase of HS2. His government first proposed HS2 before it was voted out of office in 2010, and in an interview with Times Radio he said cancelling the project would cause “confusion and chaos”. He said:
Every country in Europe is doing high-speed rail. It’s becoming the norm rather than the exception, and Britain is in danger of having 19th-century solutions to 21st-century problems.
Again, you see the costs have risen. It was £33bn when we announced it. It’s now likely to be something nearer £100bn. And something’s got to be done to show that the cost can be kept down.
But if you embark on a big infrastructure project, you cause confusion and chaos, particularly for Manchester and for the areas in the north, where they also want east/west links as well as north/south links, if you just give up on a project halfway through it. It does not make sense for us to give up all the work that has been done.
Brown has been giving interviews this morning to promote his call for the world’s richest oil-producing companies to pay a tax to help poorer nations deal with the climate crisis. He has written about that here.
Updated
Armed police need clarity about legal powers, Sunak says
Rishi Sunak has said the Home Office has ordered a review into the circumstances in which armed police officers can face prosecution if they fire their weapons while on duty because it’s important they have “clarity”, Kevin Rawlinson reports.
Updated
Sunak does not deny wanting to cut inheritance tax, but insists cutting inflation is his priority
At the weekend the Sunday Times said Rishi Sunak was considering getting rid of inheritance tax. In their splash, Caroline Wheeler, Tim Shipman and Harry Yorke said:
Three sources confirmed that there is a live discussion at the highest level of government about reforming inheritance tax. One proposal being considered is for Sunak to announce his intention to phase out the levy by reducing the 40% inheritance tax rate in the budget in March, while setting out a pathway to abolish it completely in future years.
They also revealed some cynical thinking behind the potential move, which would only benefit the most wealthy families.
However, government insiders are clear that there are political gains to be made this side of an election. “This is the most hated tax in Britain, according to the polls,” the source said. “It’s the most hated tax at every income. A lot of people don’t know that they won’t pay it. People also feel it is just wrong to tax people on income that has already been taxed — and at a time when they are grieving.”
SUNDAY TIMES: Sunak revives plans to slash inheritance tax #TomorrowsPapersToday pic.twitter.com/GDn3IdRubU
— Neil Henderson (@hendopolis) September 23, 2023
Asked about the story today, Sunak did not deny that this was being considered, although he claimed his priority was tackling inflation. He said:
I never would comment on tax speculation, of which there is always plenty.
What I would say is that the most important tax cut I can deliver for the British people is to halve inflation.
It is inflation that is putting up prices of things, inflation that is eating into people’s savings and making them feel poorer. And the quicker we get inflation down, the better for everybody.
We are making progress, we saw that in the most recent numbers. The plan is working, but we have got to stick to the plan to bring inflation down and that is the best way to help people with the cost of living.
UPDATE: John Stevens has posted the Mirror’s take on this story on X, formerly Twitter.
Rishi Sunak won’t rule out millionaires’ tax cut that would save himself £300million
Rishi Sunak won't rule out millionaires' tax cut that would save himself £300million https://t.co/RAMw0Ktv6c
— John Stevens (@johnestevens) September 25, 2023
Updated
Sunak insists he remains committed to levelling up as he refuses to say HS2 Manchester link still going ahead
In his speech on net zero last week Rishi Sunak complained about politicians who take “the easy way” out because they go round “telling people the bits they want to hear, and not necessarily always the bits they need to hear”.
But this morning, when asked about his plans for HS2, Sunak did not seem very keen on speaking blunt truths himself. At least twice he dodged questions about whether the Manchester phase would go ahead, while insisting that his government remained committed to levelling up.
Asked if scaling back HS2 meant he was no longer committed to levelling up, he replied:
I’m not going to comment on that type of speculation. But what I would say is we’re absolutely committed to levelling up and spreading opportunity around the country, not just in the north but in the Midlands, in all other regions of our fantastic country.
And transport infrastructure is a key part of that, not just big rail projects, but also local projects, improving local bus services, fixing pot holes, all of these things make a difference in people’s day-to-day lives.
Then, asked again if phase two was going ahead, he replied:
This kind of speculation that people are making is not right. I mean.
We’ve got spades in the ground, we’re getting on and delivering.
But across the north what we’re also doing is connecting up all the towns and cities in the north, east to west. That’s a really important part of how we will create jobs, drive growth across the region – all part of our plans to level up.
Freeports are another good example of that, whether that’s in Teesside or elsewhere, attracting new investment, new businesses coming in – all good examples of the government levelling up.
Updated
Osborne and Heseltine say scrapping HS2 Manchester link would be international symbol of UK's decline
Good morning. The axe has been hovering over the Birmingham to Manchester phase of HS2 for at least a week now, since a transport minister in the Commons repeatedly refused to say it was still going ahead, all but confirming reports saying that Rishi Sunak had decide to scrap it because it was too expensive. Sometimes when a story like this breaks there is an immediate backlash, which then dies down as people assume that the decision (not formally announced, but already taken as fact) might not be so daft after all. What is interesting, though, about the HS2 story is that, after a week of intense speculation, outrage about what’s proposed seems to be escalating.
As Peter Walker reports, Andy Burnham, the Labour mayor of Greater Manchester, told the Today programme this morning that scrapping phase two of HS2 would be a disaster that would leave the north of England with “Victorian infrastructure probably for the rest of this century”.
Sunak will be more worried about the Conservative party reaction, and this morning there is a blistering article in the Times jointly written by George Osborne and Michael Heseltine. As chancellor, Osborne promoted the concept of the “northern powerhouse”, and with a constituency in Cheshire he saw himself as a northern MP. Heseltine has championed infrastracture developments throughout his career, and he is probably the only Tory in modern times to have been granted the freedom of the city of Liverpool – recognition of the huge impact he had on redevelopment in the city in the Thatcher era. Their article is full of good lines. Here are some of the highlights.
Osborne and Heseltine say that without the link to Manchester HS2 would be “little more than a shuttle service from Birmingham to a London suburb” and that it would “become an international symbol of our decline”.
They say scrapping phase two would be “an act of huge economic self-harm”.
We also have huge sympathy with anyone entrusted with the difficult task of making the sums add up – we’ve been there and had to do that ourselves at the highest level. We know the challenges of delivering big infrastructure – whether it was Docklands or the Elizabeth line.
It is why it is with some reluctance we feel compelled to speak out about the rumours that HS2 is, in effect, going to be scrapped by cancelling the route to Manchester and potentially even the final miles to Euston.
It would be an act of huge economic self-harm, and be a decision of such short-sightedness, that we urge the prime minister: don’t do it.
How could you ever again claim to be levelling up when you cancel the biggest levelling-up project in the country?
They say it would be a betrayal of promises made repeatedly by successive governments.
It is difficult to conceive of a more damaging decision than cancelling a project that has been promised by six different British governments, and committed to in three election-winning manifestos.
They say that, if Sunak were to promise to invest in Northern Powerhouse Rail instead, that would not be plausible.
It is simply treating people as fools to say that money saved in the coming years on HS2 can be switched to Northern Powerhouse Rail – the east-west line across the Pennines – in the following decade.
We are still many years from an agreed route, let alone the planning and legislation required.
Indeed, why would you believe a government that promised and then cancelled one high-speed line, when they come along and promise another one.
They say cancelling phase two of HS2 would damage the UK’s reputation internationally.
The costs would not stop at these shores but spread around the world. Other countries, including those that wish the UK ill, would know we no longer had the vision and stability to deliver on our promises. Without completing HS2, we won’t have the engineering base, including a skilled workforce, that we need so desperately for other big national infrastructure projects.
We still do not know when the decision will be announced, but the one Downing Street lobby briefing of the week is this morning (there is only one a week when the Commons is in recess), and Sunak is also recording a clip for broadcasters this morning where this is bound to come up.
Here is the agenda for the day.
9am: The Liberal Democrats start today’s conference proceedings with a debate on transport. Other highlights include a speech at 11.20am by Kira Rudik, a Ukrainian MP and vice-president of the Alliance of Liberals and Democrats for Europe; a debate on scrapping the voter ID scheme at 2.10; a debate on housing at 2.40pm; and a speech at 4.10pm by Wendy Chamberlain, the Lib Dem chief whip.
Morning: Rishi Sunak is expected to speak to broadcasts on a visit in the south-east of England.
11.30am: Downing Street holds a lobby briefing.
If you want to contact me, do try the “send us a message” feature. You’ll see it just below the byline – on the left of the screen, if you are reading on a laptop or a desktop. This is for people who want to message me directly. I find it very useful when people message to point out errors (even typos – no mistake is too small to correct). Often I find your questions very interesting, too. I can’t promise to reply to them all, but I will try to reply to as many as I can, either in the comments below the line; privately (if you leave an email address and that seems more appropriate); or in the main blog, if I think it is a topic of wide interest.
Updated
