On the tropical island of Bali, Rishi Sunak has been enjoying a honeymoon as a global statesman at the G20. He struck up a bromance with Canada’s Justin Trudeau and managed a crucial first bilateral talk with US president, Joe Biden. The only major hiccup was a missed encounter with China’s president, Xi Jinping, as he attempted to reset relations after a period of extended frost.
But back home, the climate of domestic politics is decidedly chillier, with little sign Sunak is enjoying much of the bounce in the polls new prime ministers used to expect.
While the prime minister was attempting to burnish his image on the global stage, his new government continued to be dogged by some of the same ethical problems of the previous two administrations, casting doubt on his ambition to carry out Johnsonism without the sleaze.
His deputy, Dominic Raab, had to admit he was under investigation for bullying just days after Gavin Williamson resigned over similar issues, and a third, Suella Braverman, is still fighting off accusations of leaking.
Potentially as serious for Sunak is the fact his backbenchers are already restive over the economic pain inflicted through tax rises and spending cuts. Across the board, Tory MPs are relieved to have a line drawn under the disastrous Truss era, but nervous that Sunak will prove not to be much more of a vote winner.
“We know we are in a really tight spot, and nothing Rishi is doing at the moment suggests he knows how to get us out of it,” said one Conservative MP, while insisting he was a strong supporter of the new prime minister.
With domestic politics looking difficult, Sunak was clearly nervous the first time he was in a “huddle” on his government jet with reporters, a quickfire barrage of questions from at least 20 journalists with no notes on topics as wide ranging as tax rises, the triple lock, relations with China, the American midterms, crime statistics, small boats, the NHS, ID cards and I’m a Celebrity.
Despite having been chancellor, Sunak told aides he had barely comprehended how much media he was expected to do as prime minister; interviews with six broadcasters, other TV clips, moments on camera at the G20 summit, international media and a press conference.
In the 30C (86F) heat in Bali, aides said Sunak kept attempting to find a few minutes to go for a quick swim. But each time an opportunity appeared, some new major event made it impossible. Johnson, by comparison, found time for a swim at each major world summit he attended.
Sunak spent his second day in Bali sitting across the vast table at the G20 opposite Sergei Lavrov, the Russian foreign minister. By the next day, the Russian politician had left, as more than 80 missiles were raining down on Ukraine, and Sunak had to be woken at 5am to be told the news that missiles had landed near the Ukrainian border in Poland.
In the palatial surroundings of the wood-clad conference centre, surrounded by humming water features and teak trees, all the G7 and Nato leaders plus Spain and the Netherlands held an emergency private discussion where it was already beginning to become apparent that the missiles may not have been fired by Russia.
Inside the meeting, Sunak and Trudeau agreed they would stay behind at the Grand Hyatt to make contact with Volodymyr Zelenskiy.
Then began a fraught five hours while the two leaders attempted to get hold of the Ukrainian president – in Kyiv it was the early hours of the morning and the country was under bombardment.
The changes meant an embarrassing change of schedule for Sunak – who was due to meet Xi in a highly anticipated reset of relations with China which had been briefed with great fanfare. But neither side could make time changes work, despite pressure from No 10, and it remains unclear whose decision it was to pull the plug.
By midday Sunak and Trudeau had reached the Ukrainian foreign minister, Dmytro Kuleba – and both strode out around 2pm, Trudeau looking fresh in a grey suit with a slightly more tense-looking Sunak standing at his side. The call with Zelenskiy finally happened an hour later. By then, Biden had publicly cast doubt the missile was Russian and US officials had privately confirmed that was what their intelligence said. No 10 refused to issue a direct comment, but sources said they did not demur from the American assessment.
It was a baptism of fire for Sunak as his first diplomatic outing and he did not put any obvious steps wrong. But back home, the headlines were grim for the new prime minister as he headed into his first fiscal event with his chancellor, Jeremy Hunt.
Both men had agreed on the necessity to get back to the principles of sound money after the market turmoil in response to Truss’s unfunded tax cuts. However, the prospect of tax rises and austerity 2.0 is suspected by Conservative MPs to be a toxic combination that will overshadow any credit that the duo hope to get from being seen as more economically competent than Truss.
As chancellor, Sunak always told backbenchers that he was passionate about tax cuts and desperate to get on with them when economic conditions allowed. But asked on Friday when that would happen, his official spokesman could not say when Sunak would return to being a low-tax Tory, repeating only that he believed difficult decisions had to be taken in the face of “profound economic challenges”.
The risk for Sunak is that those difficult economic circumstances will very soon become challenging political ones as well, with an election now less than two years away on the horizon.
