The risk of grass fires in the ACT over the coming summer months may increase - but only if this season's predicted rain doesn't arrive first.
The seasonal bushfire outlook released on Monday by the national council for fire and emergency services revealed that if the weather patterns ahead followed their predicted wetter-than-usual trajectory, the ACT was again on target for a "normal" fire potential summer, despite the extensive grass growth during the spring.
And less volatility was expected within Canberra's surrounding forests.
"Below normal fire potential is expected for forested areas given sustained and increased fuel moisture conditions from increased rainfall, and as a result of forest areas burnt in the 2019-20 fire season," the report stated.
The outlook reaffirmed the high water saturation levels seen in soil content across the ACT, but noted that even this content would not be enough to maintain a suppressive effect on potential grassfires unless it keeps raining.
How the months ahead play out weather-wise also will be critical to future fire management decisions.
A perfect window of opportunity will be presented on managing bushfire risk in the region after this summer is over, according to fire management expert Dr Tony Bartlett.
Dr Bartlett says the ACT, fast approaching the 20th anniversary of the 2003 bushfire disaster which killed four people and destroyed over 500 buildings, needs to act on this golden opportunity to manage the risk in a considered way.
A third consecutive La Nina season was declared by the Bureau of Meteorology back in late September as cooling was observed in the central tropical Pacific Ocean, along with trade wind strength and equatorial cloudiness.
The BOM is still yet to confirm that La Nina has peaked, although that may not be far away.
"The negative Indian Ocean Dipole event is weakening and will likely come to an end by early summer, while the La Nina in the Pacific Ocean may start to ease in early 2023," the bureau stated last week.
As a result, large parts of Western Australia will experience a dry summer while the eastern states, in particular coastal New South Wales, most of Victoria, large areas of Queensland, and northern and eastern Tasmania, will be wetter than usual.
