March NY world sugar #11 (SBH24) on Thursday closed up +0.21 (+0.96%), and March London ICE white sugar #5 (SWH24) closed up +3.00 (+0.48%).
Sugar prices Thursday recovered from 8-1/2 month lows and settled moderately higher as short-covering emerged after the Brazilian real (^USDBRL) rallied to a 1-1/2 week high against the dollar. The weaker real discourages export selling from Brazil's sugar producers.
On Thursday, sugar prices initially slumped to 8-1/2 month lows as Brazil ramps up sugar output. On Tuesday, Unica reported Brazil's Center-South sugar output rose +35% y/y in the second half of November and that sugar output in the 2023/24 crop year through November rose +23.5% y/y to 40.817 MMT. Meanwhile, Brazil exported 3.7 MMT of sugar in November, marking a new record for the month.
Sugar prices were undercut by last week's news that India's food ministry directed local sugar mills to stop using sugar cane juice and syrup to produce ethanol in the 2023/24 supply year to boost sugar reserves. Green Pool Commodity Specialists said this could add 2 MMT of sugar to India's domestic supplies.
The Thai Sugar Millers Corp on Nov 1 projected that Thailand's 2023/24 sugar production would fall by -36% y/y to a 17-year low of 7 MMT due to a severe drought. So far this year, rainfall in Thailand is well below the same period last year, and the onset of the El Nino weather system could further reduce precipitation over the next two years. Thailand is the world's third-largest sugar producer and the second-largest sugar exporter.
India's Weather Department said this year's monsoon rain (Jun-Sep) was -6% below average, the poorest monsoon rainfall in 5 years. The National Federation of Cooperative Sugar Factories, an Indian sugar producers' group, reported last Friday that India's 2023/24 sugar production from Oct 1-Nov 30 fell -10.7% y/y to 4.32 MMT.
India's Food Secretary Chopra said India's sugar reserves as of Oct 1 totaled 5.7 MMT, enough to meet demand for 2-1/2 months, and that it will decide whether to allow sugar exports for 2023/24 when actual estimates of total production are available. On Nov 17, the National Federation of Cooperative Sugar Factories projected India's total 2023/24 sugar production may drop by -11.9% y/y to 29.15 MMT from 33.09 MMT in 2022/23. India allowed mills to export only 6.1 MMT of sugar during the 2022/23 season to Sep 30 after letting them export a record 11.1 MMT in the previous season.
A bullish factor for sugar is concern that an El Nino weather pattern could disrupt global sugar production. On June 8, the U.S. Climate Prediction Center said that sea surface temperatures across the equatorial Pacific Ocean had risen 0.5 degrees Celsius above normal, and wind patterns have changed to the point where El Nino criteria have been met. An El Nino weather pattern typically brings heavy rains to Brazil and drought to India, negatively impacting sugar crop production. The last time El Nino brought dryness to sugar crops in Asia was in 2015 and 2016, which caused prices to soar.
The USDA, in its bi-annual report released on May 25, projected that global 2023/24 sugar production would climb +6.0% y/y to a record 187.881 MMT and that global 2023/24 human sugar consumption would increase +2.3% y/y to a record 180.045 MMT. The USDA also forecasted that 2023/24 global sugar ending stocks would fall -15.2% y/y to a 13-year low of 33.455 MMT. Meanwhile, ISO on Aug 10 projected that 2023/24 global sugar production would fall -1.2% y/y to 174.8 MMT and that the global sugar market in 2023/24 will fall into a deficit of -2.12 MMT from a 2022/23 global sugar surplus of +852,000 MT.
On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
