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Foreign Policy
Foreign Policy
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Nizar Manek, Mohamed Kheir Omer, Tom Gardner, Bronwyn Bruton, Nizar Manek

Sudan Will Decide the Outcome of the Ethiopian Civil War

Members of the Amhara militia, who fight alongside federal and regional forces against the northern region of Tigray, ride through Gondar, Ethiopia, on Nov. 8. EDUARDO SOTERAS/AFP via Getty Images

ADDIS ABABA, Ethiopia—While the world girded for the U.S. election in early November, Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed launched a war against the northern region of Tigray. The region is home to the Tigray People’s Liberation Front—the party that dominated Ethiopian politics for decades and has since been displaced and sidelined as Abiy has sought to consolidate power and made peace with the TPLF’s archenemy, Eritrea.

But the TPLF has not gone quietly; in September, the regional government it leads held local elections that the central government refused to recognize in October. Then, on Nov. 3, following provocations by Abiy, it took control of personnel, military hardware, and equipment from the federal army’s Northern Command, prompting Addis Ababa to declare war against a region that remains home to a sizable portion of the Ethiopian federal army’s arsenal and forces, given its position along the long-contested and still undemarcated border with Eritrea.

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