Progressive Democrats notched victories in two of Texas’s congressional primary races on Tuesday while Ken Paxton, one of the most prominent Republicans in the state and Donald Trump ally, suffered a major blow.
In the most closely watched congressional primary, Jessica Cisneros, a progressive Democrat, forced a runoff against Henry Cuellar, a nine-term congressman who is one of the most conservative Democrats in the US House. (Texas races go to a runoff if no candidate receives more than 50% of the vote.)
Forcing a runoff is a major win for Cisneros, who narrowly lost to Cuellar two years ago. Cuellar has been dogged by corruption allegations after an FBI raid of his home and office earlier this year. Cisneros has been endorsed by the progressive group Justice Democrats, plus Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren.
Joshua Blank, the research director of the Texas Politics Project at Austin, said it was difficult to predict whether Cuellar would ultimately prevail.
“Handicapping his chances is difficult, because on the one hand, he likely has significant organization in the district, but on the other, an incumbent in a strong position shouldn’t find himself in so much trouble,” he said.
“The focus has been on Cisneros’ progressivism and whether she can win in the general, but Cuellar is one of the most conservative Democrats in Congress and somewhat idiosyncratic within the party, so how this will turn out is anyone’s guess.”
Progressives also scored another victory in a new congressional district that stretches from Austin to San Antonio. Greg Casar, a progressive favorite who led efforts to reduce the police budget on the Austin city council, easily won his party’s nomination. He is expected to easily win in the general election in November.
In the Dallas area, Jasmine Crockett, described as one of the most liberal members of the Texas house of representatives, is headed to a runoff election against Jane Hope Hamilton.
Paxton, the attorney general, was forced into a runoff with George P Bush, the Texas land commissioner and the face of a new generation of one of America’s most prominent political dynasties (his uncle is George W Bush). Paxton, who was endorsed by the former president, is one of the most outspoken conservative attorneys general in the country, and has been at the forefront of attacks on voting, abortion access, immigration and transgender Americans. He also led an unsuccessful lawsuit asking the US supreme court to overturn the 2020 election.
But the fact that he is being forced into a runoff underscores how politically vulnerable he may be. He has been under indictment since 2015 for securities fraud and faces whistleblower allegations that he misused his office for personal gain.
“Paxton will likely have an easier time with Bush, whose name and legacy in Texas carry a mixed set of baggage,” said Blank.
Trump nonetheless tried to frame Tuesday’s results in Texas as a mark of his political strength. He noted that the dozens of Republican candidates he endorsed in the race either won or were headed to a runoff. But virtually all of the candidates Trump endorsed were running in non-competitive primaries and were expected to win.
Trump also notably did not endorse Van Taylor, a Republican seeking re-election to Congress in the Dallas suburbs. Taylor voted in favor of a bipartisan 6 January commission, which drew ire from Republicans and several challengers. Taylor will now face a runoff against Keith Self, a former Collin county judge, who told the Texas Tribune that the congressman’s vote for a commission was a “huge issue”.
Taylor’s district is one of several in Texas that was redrawn last year to become solidly more Republican. In 2020, his district was highly competitive – Trump narrowly carried it by 1 percentage point. Trump would have carried the district by 14 points under the new lines, according to Planscore. It’s a trend that illustrates how lawmakers are redrawing districts to make them less competitive, a move that benefits extreme candidates in the primary.
Restrictions
Looming over the primary were sweeping new voting restrictions in Texas, in effect for the first time after Republicans in the state legislature passed them last year.
Texas already limits mail-in voting to those aged 65 or older, or who have a qualifying excuse. For weeks, local election officials have been raising alarms that new identification requirements for mail-in ballots are causing them to reject tens of thousands of them. Lisa Wise, the election administrator in El Paso county, said earlier this week her office had flagged 27% of the 3,855 ballots it received so far for rejection. In Harris county, the most populous in the state, officials had flagged 10,876 ballots, 29% of those returned, for potential rejections.
Leah Shah, a county spokeswoman, said the office was working to contact voters and get them to come in person to the election office to correct issues on their ballots. Voters have until Monday to come to the election office and fix defects in person.
“The current numbers are unprecedented, far outpacing previous rejection rates. This outcome could have been avoidable if federal protections were in place,” said Mimi Marzani, the president of the Texas Civil Rights Project.
