FORT LAUDERDALE, Fla. — South Florida may not come through the end of the 2022 hurricane season without a direct hit as a rare November storm heads for the state’s east coast.
The threat from potential Hurricane Nicole increased Monday, with the possibility of strong winds, rising waters and flooding rains reaching parts of South Florida. And forecasters said Monday night that “there is more than the usual amount of uncertainty in the intensity forecast.”
Gov. Ron DeSantis issued a state of emergency in 34 Florida counties, including Broward, Miami-Dade and Palm Beach, on Monday as Nicole, a subtropical storm, is forecast to strengthen and potentially make landfall as a Category 1 hurricane Wednesday night or Thursday morning.
Wherever the storm comes ashore, most of the Florida peninsula will experience heavy rains, near-hurricane force winds and possible storm surge this week.
Hurricane watches, tropical storm warnings and storm surge alerts went up along Florida’s east coast Monday, and officials are urging Floridians to prepare now and stay vigilant.
“We are technically still in hurricane season until the end of this month,” said Barry Baxter, a meteorologist for National Weather Service Miami. “So don’t let your guard down just because it’s in November. It’s rare we get them this time of year, but we could still get them.”
‘A large storm’
Forecasters say Nicole is “a large storm” that could reach maximum sustained winds this week of 75 mph, just 1 mph over the minimum threshold for a Category 1 hurricane.
“It’s not out of the question for Nicole to reach hurricane strength, especially given how warm the waters are in the vicinity of the Bahamas,” experts said Monday.
As of 10 p.m. Monday, Nicole had maximum sustained winds of 45 mph and was moving northwest at 8 mph about 415 miles east-northeast of the northwestern Bahamas. It is forecast to approach the northwestern Bahamas on Tuesday before approaching Florida’s east coast Wednesday night.
The storm will strengthen Tuesday night and Wednesday and will be at or near hurricane strength by Wednesday night, the hurricane center’s latest advisory said.
“Do not focus on the exact track of Nicole since it is expected to be a large storm with hazards extending well to the north of the center, and outside of the cone, and affect much of the Florida peninsula and portions of the southeast U.S.,” forecasters said.
As of 10 p.m. Monday, winds of 40 mph extended up to 310 miles from Nicole’s center.
“I urge all Floridians to be prepared and to listen to announcements from local emergency management officials,” DeSantis said in a prepared statement. “We will continue to monitor the trajectory and strength of this storm as it moves towards Florida.”
Florida Division of Emergency Management officials advise to stock up on a weeks’ worth of non-perishable packaged and canned foods and beverages, one gallon of water per person per day, non-electric can openers, paper and plastic utensils, pet food and supplies, gasoline, first-aid supplies, medications, cell phone chargers, batteries, flashlights and cash and to secure important documents.
South Florida effects
The National Weather Service Miami said in a briefing Monday that “overall the threat is increasing for South Florida” with potentially life-threatening storm surges, damaging winds, heavy rainfall and a few tornadoes on the horizon.
Broward County Public Schools Superintendent Vickie Cartwright and Palm Beach County School District Superintendent Mike Burke said Monday that their districts are monitoring Nicole’s development and will share updates about any closures on their websites and social media. Broward and Palm Beach schools were already scheduled to be closed to students Tuesday.
Palm Beach County Mayor Robert Weinroth said at a news conference alongside other county officials Monday night that there has not been any decision yet to open shelters or order evacuations. He encouraged residents to prepare “but not to panic.”
“By now, you should have your general needs and supplies on hand,” Weinroth said.
Eric Silagy, president and CEO of Florida Power & Light Company, cautioned that the storm will cause power outages as trees and vegetation that were weakened during recent Hurricane Ian get knocked down.
“It is very likely that we will see outages from the storm,” Silagy said.
Florida’s east coast from the Volusia/Brevard County line to Hallandale Beach, Lake Okeechobee and the northwestern Bahamas are under a hurricane watch. The Bahamas issued a hurricane warning Monday afternoon for the Abacos, Berry Islands, Bimini and Grand Bahama Island.
A tropical storm warning is in effect for Hallandale Beach to Altamaha Sound, Lake Okeechobee and the Bahamian islands of Andros Island, New Providence and Eleuthera.
A tropical storm watch is in effect south of Hallandale Beach to north of Ocean Reef and from the Volusia/Brevard county line north to Georgia’s Altamaha Sound. A storm surge watch is also in effect from Georgia’s Altamaha Sound to the mouth of the St. Johns River to East Palatka and to Hallandale Beach.
North Palm Beach northward to Altamaha Sound, including the mouth of the St. Johns River to Georgetown, are now under a storm surge warning.
“The storm surge will be accompanied by large and damaging waves,” the center’s latest advisory said.
The Weather Channel expects Nicole’s center to make landfall on Florida’s east coast Wednesday night or early Thursday, though the “worst of Nicole’s impacts on the southeast coast could arrive by late Tuesday or Wednesday and might last in some areas well through the second half of the week.”
Given that forecast, it’s likely South Florida voters will begin feeling the effects on Election Day, Tuesday, as the system brings moisture up from the Caribbean Sea.
Palm Beach County Supervisor of Elections Wendy Sartory Link said that the weather is not expected to affect voting or any polling sites, but if a location experiences any flooding or loses power, voters will be re-directed to the closest site. Broward County Supervisor of Elections Office said in a tweet Monday night that all polls will be open as planned for Election Day.
Extensive wind is one of the biggest threats South Florida could face in the coming days, according to the weather service.
Winds between 30 and 35 mph could come to Florida’s east coast as soon as late Tuesday night, according to the weather service. Hurricane-force-winds could reach Palm Beach County and Broward County as soon as Wednesday.
Parts of Broward and Palm Beach County could see winds as strong as 110 mph that could damage roofs and mobile homes, uproot trees, leave some roads or bridges impassible and cause a wide area of power outages, the weather service said.
Southern and western Broward County, along with Miami-Dade, could see winds between 58 and 73 mph.
Palm Beach County and Broward County both have between 60% and 70% odds of seeing sustained tropical-storm-force winds over the next five days, according to the weather service, while Miami-Dade County has between 30% and 50%.
South Florida will see the heaviest of any rainfall from the storm between Wednesday and Thursday, according to the weather service. Between four and six inches are expected in parts of Palm Beach County and Broward County, though higher amounts in some areas are possible.
The weather service said storm surge levels could reach a peak of three to five feet above ground level in northern Palm Beach County, two to four feet in southern Palm Beach County and throughout Broward County and one to two feet in Miami-Dade County.
“The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline,” the hurricane center’s latest advisory said.
From Hallandale Beach to North Palm Beach, storm surge could reach two to four feet and one to two feet from north of Ocean Reef to Hallandale Beach, including Biscayne Bay. From North Palm Beach to Altamaha Sound, storm surge could reach three to five feet, the center’s latest advisory said.
Rain and flooding could cause water to enter some buildings and close roads in parts of Broward and Palm Beach County, according to the weather service.
Robert Garcia, a senior meteorologist at the National Weather Service Miami, said there have already been reports of some minor flooding in the coastal areas of Palm Beach, Broward and Miami-Dade counties, and that coming high tides will be measuring in an upward trend before any affects from Nicole.
“It is not something that looks like it’s going to go away this week. We’re already starting to see those higher water levels, and with the storm we’re expecting them to increase,” Garcia said.
Some tornadoes may also be possible in Palm Beach County from Wednesday into Thursday morning, according to the weather service.
Forecasters are also monitoring a stormy area of low pressure located 700 miles east of Bermuda Monday night. Forecasters said its chances of developing are quickly lessening as it heads northeast into cooler waters in an area of upper-level winds.
The system near Bermuda had a 40% chance of developing in the next two to five days, according to the hurricane center, down from 70% on Sunday.
There have been two major hurricanes, meaning Category 3 or above, so far this season: Fiona and Ian.
The next named storm to form would be Owen.
NOAA has predicted at least four more hurricanes will form before hurricane season officially ends on Nov. 30.
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