We got a great example this weekend of why one-week reactions are but snapshots and not full pictures of players and draft prospects. Coming into the weekend, Ole Miss quarterback Jaxson Dart was surging with the unbeaten Rebels, looking a lot like a more aggressive version of Broncos’ first-rounder Bo Nix.
However, Dart’s wave crashed on the shoals in a stunning upset by Kentucky. It’s not that Dart played poorly in the game, a 20-17 Wildcats win on an offensive fumble recovery in the end zone with a little over two minutes to play. But Dart’s inability to get much going against the best defense he and the Rebels have seen all year puts a damper on the draft buzz.
Dart led just two touchdown drives against a Kentucky defense that flew around the field with aggressive discipline. He completed just 18 of his 27 passes, netting 261 yards and a touchdown. Dart had thrived on his consistency all season, but this performance was more uneven.
Take the final Ole Miss drive, which came after Kentucky took a 20-17 lead. Dart made a bad choice in trying an ill-advised keeper on first down, then was inaccurate under pressure on second and third downs. Fourth down saw Dart remind everyone why he’s still a very impressive prospect on the whole. A picture-perfect pass to Caden Prieskorn kept the drive, and unbeaten hopes, still very much alive.
Yet Dart couldn’t seal the deal. He just missed his running back on a wheel route that was there for the taking on the next play, then took a terrible sack on second down when he had chances to throw the ball away or tuck and run and gain more yards for his field goal kicker. He got let off the hook on a lost fumble on the next play with a twitchy offsides call. Those yards proved precious, as the 48-yarder that would have tied the game (very badly) missed.
A comeback win in a game like this would have provided another big feather in Dart’s draft hat. It’s certainly not all on Dart, but the fact he couldn’t avoid the upset will work against him with many evaluators. It was Dart’s weakest performance–by far–on the season, one that should cool the momentum a bit on the ballooning draft hype that saw Dart floating as a top-15 pick in many mock projections.
One game shouldn’t weigh on the full picture like that, but given how easy of a schedule Dart and the Rebels had faced, it was seen as a validation test going in. Dart’s still good–he’s firmly a top-40 overall prospect on my board, but the illusion of his near-perfect first four games took a hit.
