When I was handicapping races day in and day out, I always started with race fundamentals (e.g., demographics, past political performance in the district or state) and, later in a cycle, switched to watching polls to see where races stood and were headed. But on rare occasions, it was so clear that one side had such a huge advantage in messaging that it was relatively easy to handicap a race even before it had started.
This year, two contests stand out before even considering fundamentals and polling: Arizona and New Hampshire. Republican nominees in both states — Blake Masters in Arizona and Don Bolduc in New Hampshire — are carrying so much political baggage that it is difficult to see how they can win, even with a midterm breeze at their backs.
Fundamentals suggest that the 2022 Arizona Senate race between Masters and incumbent Democratic Sen. Mark Kelly should be a toss-up. The state was very close in the past two presidential and Senate contests, and the long-term shift of suburban voters toward the Democrats creates problems for the GOP. But Republicans should benefit from a favorable midterm environment, which includes an unpopular Democrat in the White House and inflation.
