The opening round of the 2023 NFL Playoffs is upon us. And, like an estranged relative bringing Christmas gifts clearly bought at CVS on the drive over, it’s got lots to offer that looks good in theory but fails to deliver in application.
A divisional rivalry grudge match between the Miami Dolphins and Buffalo Bills, where each side as one close win to its credit? Bad news, Tua Tagovailoa won’t be playing. A rubber match between the Cincinnati Bengals and Baltimore Ravens? Welp, Lamar Jackson is still hurt.
The game that offers the largest gulf between potential and production, however? Tom Brady vs. Mike McCarthy.
No, it’s not the Patriots-Packers Super Bowl we were promised throughout the 2010s. Instead it’s Brady’s Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who won the NFC South more or less by default, vs. McCarthy’s Dallas Cowboys — a team equally capable of leaving opponents in a cloud of dust or tripping over its own feet to give inferior teams myriad opportunities to beat them.
Our three-man panel ran screaming from the unpredictability of the Cowboys and into the relative comfort of playoff Brady, who is likely playing his final home game as a Buccaneer. Monday night’s NFC matchup provides a wide range of potential outcomes. The only thing we’re moderately sure about is that it will get stupid at some point, McCarthy will trend for reasons he’d rather avoid and Brady will once again shame those who counted out Touchdown Tom.
Here’s who we’ve got for the opening round of the 2023 NFL playoffs.
| Game | Christian | Robert | Charles |
| Seahawks at 49ers | 49ers | 49ers | 49ers |
| Chargers at Jaguars | Jaguars | Chargers | Chargers |
| Dolphins at Bills | Bills | Bills | Bills |
| Giants at Vikings | Vikings | Giants | Vikings |
| Ravens at Bengals | Bengals | Bengals | Bengals |
| Cowboys at Buccaneers | Bucs | Bucs | Bucs |
| Last week: | 13-3 | 13-3 | 12-4 |
| Year to date: | 164-90-2 | 164-90-2 | 150-104-2 |
And here are those selections in a better-formatted screenshot of our actual picks sheet, which unfortunately struggles to translate to our editing software.
Easiest game to pick: San Francisco 49ers (-9.5) over the Seattle Seahawks
The Niners aren’t the biggest favorite in this week’s lineup — that honor belongs to the Bills, who are expected to beat the Tua Tagovailoa-less Dolphins by two touchdowns. But the opening game of Wild Card weekend pairs two similarly streaky teams.
The 49ers haven’t lost since October 23. The Seahawks are 3-5 in their last eight games and the majority of those wins came against the rusted-out hull of the once-seaworthy Los Angeles Rams. Seattle’s 21st-ranked defense can generate pressure without blitzing, which should make rookie Brock Purdy uncomfortable.
Unfortunately for Pete Carroll, Purdy’s been great at getting the ball to his playmakers and letting them take the reins; his average target distance is only 6.6 yards downfield but his average completion goes for 12.1 yards. Forcing him to check down isn’t going to dramatically alter San Francisco’s plans. Even worse: the Seahawks’ 2,101 yards allowed after the catch is fourth-worst in the NFL.
Seattle has a great story. Geno Smith can make another argument for a lucrative contract extension with solid play Saturday afternoon. But he’s 0-2 against the Niners this season for a reason. This is a brutal matchup for the Seahawks, even if beating the same team three times in a season is a tall task.
Hardest favorite to back: Minnesota Vikings (-3) over the New York Giants
(big sigh)
OK. This isn’t about Kirk Cousins. Or, at least, it’s not all about Kirk Cousins.
Cousins, despite some glaring big stage failures, isn’t *that* bad under a spotlight. His playoff passer rating is 10 points lower than his regular season one, but he’s 50/50 when it comes to solid postseason performances as a Viking. He helped lead a comeback overtime win in New Orleans in 2020 that couldn’t have happened without him. The following week he threw for fewer than 175 yards and his team lost 27-10.
That doesn’t worry me as much as the league’s 27th-ranked defense. Minnesota has given up at least 24 points 11 times this season. It’s given up at least 400 yards of total offense in more than half its games — including 445 the last time it played the Giants. There’s a reason this team is the shadiest 13-win unit in NFL history; the Vikings’ overall point differential was negative-three.
Fortunately for them, the Giants aren’t quite there yet. Brian Daboll has done a great job playing to his strengths, but New York doesn’t have the talent to bully its way to playoff wins yet. Minnesota gets the pick by default, even if it’s thoroughly untrustworthy.
Upset pick of the week: Jacksonville Jaguars (+1.5) over the Los Angeles Chargers
We briefly touched on Cowboys-Bucs above. That, honestly, is about all the analysis I have for it. It’s a Mike McCarthy-coached team going up against Tom Brady in his final home game in Tampa. Dallas should win, but there’s enough doubt sewn by the 2022 season that’s got us believing they won’t.
Instead, let’s talk about the Wild Card weekend’s toss-up game. Neither the Jaguars nor the Chargers looked very good in Week 18. Jacksonville needed a late, questionable fumble return touchdown to beat a Joshua Dobbs-led Tennessee Titans team at home to win the AFC South. Los Angeles played its starters for way too long in a meaningless game and struggled against a five-win Broncos team.
Despite this, the Chargers are a road favorite. Why? The Jaguars:
- have more wins over current playoff teams (three to one)
- have homefield advantage
- have a distinct head coaching advantage (Doug Pederson over Brandon Staley)
- and beat the Chargers 38-10 in Week 3 on the road.
LA’s run defense still stinks and Travis Etienne has improved throughout the season (as long as he’s not playing the Titans). Trevor Lawrence has shown time and time again he’s capable of capitalizing on big moments. This is where the Jags not only stamp their arrival as contenders going forward, but also make a statement about just how bad Urban Meyer was at all of this.
