Week 7’s underwhelming slate of games led to a handful of upsets but not many close finishes. Week 8 looks better on paper; will it come through?
My chalk-heavy approach last week left me lagging behind the rest of the crowd — one more foot of offense from the Jacksonville Jaguars would’ve helped. This week only features two upsets (Tampa Bay Buccaneers over the Baltimore Ravens on Thursday night and the Los Angeles Rams over the San Francisco 49ers) and another that just feels that way (the New England Patriots winning in New York), none of which are especially interesting.
Otherwise? We’re riding with the Jacksonville Jaguars in their home away from home (London, where they’re 4-2. This doesn’t feel impressive until you realize they’re 23-47 at TIAA Bank Stadium in that same stretch). We’re also betting the Carolina Panthers’ Week 7 revival was a one-off and that the Detroit Lions’ journey to the No. 1 pick in next spring’s draft will continue.
Here’s our full lineup of straight-up moneyline picks for Week 8 of the 2022 NFL season.
| Game | Christian | Robert | Charles |
| Ravens at Buccaneers | Bucs | Ravens | Bucs |
| Broncos at Jaguars | Jaguars | Jaguars | Jaguars |
| Panthers at Falcons | Falcons | Falcons | Falcons |
| Bears at Cowboys | Cowboys | Cowboys | Cowboys |
| Cardinals at Vikings | Vikings | Cardinals | Vikings |
| Dolphins at Lions | Dolphins | Dolphins | Dolphins |
| Patriots at Jets | Patriots | Jets | Jets |
| Steelers at Eagles | Eagles | Eagles | Eagles |
| Raiders at Saints | Saints | Raiders | Saints |
| Titans at Texans | Titans | Titans | Titans |
| Giants at Seahawks | Seahawks | Seahawks | Seahawks |
| 49ers at Rams | Rams | 49ers | Rams |
| Commanders at Colts | Colts | Colts | Colts |
| Packers at Bills | Bills | Bills | Bills |
| Bengals at Browns | Bengals | Bengals | Bengals |
| Last week: | 9-5 | 11-3 | 10-4 |
| Year to date: | 67-40-1 | 63-44-1 | 58-49-1 |
And here those pics are in a better-formatted screenshot of our actual picks sheet, which sadly struggles to translate to our editing software.
Easiest game to pick: Buffalo Bills (-11) over the Green Bay Packers
The line for this game opened at -8 and quickly rose three points. It could near two touchdowns by kickoff and, honestly? That makes sense.
The Packer offense has been a disaster this year. Green Bay is capable of executing early, building leads and then stumbling backward as opponents like the Giants, Jets and Commanders reel them in. And if those teams can erase any minimal progress Aaron Rodgers makes, just imagine what Josh Allen can do.
The one caveat is that the Packer defense is much more vulnerable against the run — a spot where Buffalo is decent, but not nearly on the same level as Allen’s passing offense. Green Bay has the chops to come up with some stops, but not nearly enough to swing this game in its favor.
Last week: 1-0 (1.000)
Season to date: 2-5 (.286)
Hardest favorite to back: New England Patriots (-2) over the New York Jets
Well, we know Mac Jones is going to be the Patriots’ quarterback. After last week’s pasting by the Chicago Bears, it’s tough to know if that’s a good thing.
Jones threw six passes for all of 13 yards and an interception before getting yanked for Bailey Zappe in the second quarter. His return from an ankle injury continued a concerning trend of regression in his second season as a pro. Zappe wasn’t much better and a New England team forced to play from behind couldn’t rely on its run game. It lost 33-14 at home as an 8.5-point favorite.
But the Bears roasted New England with runs and deep/intermediate strikes; Fields completed five of his eight passes at least 13 yards downfield on Monday night for 92 yards and some clutch third-and-long conversions. Zach Wilson’s longest pass in Week 7, comparitively, traveled eight yards beyond the line of scrimmage.
That’s going to put a lot of pressure on Michael Carter (3.5 yards per carry) and new arrival James Robinson (3.7 yards per carry his last four games) to propel this offense. If they can’t sustain drives, the pressure will fall on Wilson’s shoulders as a passer. In 1.5 games against Belichick he’s thrown four interceptions and zero touchdown passes.
The Jets have the defensive firepower to turn this game into a struggle. So do the Pats. I’m more confident this game goes under 42 points than on who the winner will be.
Last week: n/a — was originally a Broncos pick, then switched after Russell Wilson was ruled out (n/a)
Season to date: 3-3 (.500)
Upset pick of the week: Los Angeles Rams (+1.5) over the San Francisco 49ers
The 49ers won the first meeting between these two teams in a 24-9 Santa Clara snoozer. Now the Rams get to return the favor at home coming off a bye. Sean McVay’s teams are only 3-2 coming off their rest week, but they’ve also never been .500 or worse when they got there.
Los Angeles has had two weeks to allow the reality of its situation to set in — an NFC West where the team most of us expected to finish last (the Seahawks) in the lead. The Rams’ mediocre start has been a function of bad blocking, an inefficient run game and a lack of playmakers. San Francisco has the pass rush to capitalize on that, which makes the Niners a reasonable favorite.
But the Niners also have Jimmy Garoppolo and his litany of baffling throws. LA has the defenders to turn those into drive-erasing turnovers instead of letting them fall harmlessly to the turf. Sure, he’s never lost against the Rams in the regular season (7-0), but he’s also thrown multiple interceptions in three of those games.
Those Rams have the second-toughest rushing defense in the league, so there’s a good chance this game comes down to Garoppolo and Matthew Stafford in a rock fight. I’m not super jazzed about either guy in this situation so, uh hey, let’s go with the team coming off a bye with home field advantage.
Convincing, right?
Last week: 0-1 (.000)
Season to date: 2-5 (.286)
