Hooooo buddy, that was a rough opening weekend for straight-up picks.
Five different teams favored by at least five points failed to win. Only one that was as much as a four-point favorite covered (thanks for the blitzes, Arizona Cardinals!). Three teams largely considered to be fighting for draft position in 2022 either escaped with victories (Chicago Bears, New York Giants, Seattle Seahawks) or settled for a tie (Houston Texans).
That gives us some information for Week 2 as well as the opportunity to overreact. With the San Francisco 49ers’ offense continue to underwhelm around Trey Lance if there isn’t a downpour pelting the field? Will Nathaniel Hackett galaxy-brain his way to more losses? Are the New England Patriots as lifeless as they looking against Miami?
Here’s our full slate for the second week of the 2022 NFL season.
| Game | Christian | Robert | Charles |
| Chargers at Chiefs | Chiefs | Chiefs | Chargers |
| Panthers at Giants | Giants | Giants | Giants |
| Colts at Jaguars | Colts | Jaguars | Colts |
| Dolphins at Ravens | Ravens | Dolphins | Ravens |
| Patriots at Steelers | Steelers | Steelers | Steelers |
| Jets at Browns | Browns | Browns | Browns |
| Buccaneers at Saints | Buccaneers | Buccaneers | Buccaneers |
| Commanders at Lions | Lions | Lions | Commanders |
| Falcons at Rams | Rams | Rams | Rams |
| Seahawks at 49ers | 49ers | 49ers | 49ers |
| Bengals at Cowboys | Bengals | Bengals | Bengals |
| Cardinals at Raiders | Raiders | Raiders | Raiders |
| Texans at Broncos | Broncos | Broncos | Broncos |
| Bears at Packers | Packers | Packers | Packers |
| Titans at Bills | Bills | Bills | Bills |
| Vikings at Eagles | Eagles | Eagles | Eagles |
| Last week: | 9-6-1 | 7-8-1 | 8-7-1 |
| Year to date: | 9-6-1 | 7-8-1 | 8-7-1 |
And here those pics are in a better formatted screenshot of our actual picks sheet, which sadly struggles to translate to our editing software.
Let’s talk about it.
Easiest game to pick: Cincinnati Bengals (-8) over the Dallas Cowboys
The line on this game opened favoring the Cowboys at home. Then news about Dak Prescott requiring surgery broke and bettors have, expectedly, flocked to Cincinnati.
The Bengals were a worthy pick as an underdog even with a healthy Prescott, based on what we saw from the Dallas offense in Week 1. Instead, they’ll get the chance to work out seven days of frustration and what-ifs on Cooper Rush, who has thrown 63 regular season passes in his five-year NFL career.
Cincinnati shook off the rust of a starter-less preseason and snapped back to life against the Steelers despite its head coach’s awful decision making. Joe Burrow eventually returned to something resembling his 2021 form after turning the ball over in four of his first five drives. The Bengal defense limited Mitchell Trubisky to just one drive of 50+ yards in 70 minutes, which may not hold true against the AFC’s best quarterbacks but absolutely should vs. Rush.
Last week: 0-1 (.000)
Season to date: 0-1 (.000)
Hardest favorite to back: Kansas City Chiefs (-4) over the Los Angeles Chargers
The Chiefs absolutely thrashed the Arizona Cardinals last week. But that’s what they were supposed to do.
Kansas City’s rebuilt secondary mostly handled a depleted receiving corps that played Week 1 without DeAndre Hopkins (suspended) or Rondale Moore (injured). This week it will be without rookie Trent McDuffie, who played 21 passing downs in his NFL debut and wasn’t targeted once, due to injury. That group will face a much stiffer test in Justin Herbert.
Herbert won’t have Keenan Allen available, but one of his biggest strengths is his ability to lift his entire roster. Nine different targets had at least two catches in the Chargers’ win over the Raiders Sunday. Herbert’s also the guy who has thrown multiple touchdown passes to guys like Donald Parham, Tyron Johnson and Gabe by-god Nabers in his NFL career.
That could put Patrick Mahomes smack-dab in the middle of a shootout. Los Angeles won’t be stupid enough to blitz him repeatedly and won’t have to with Khalil Mack and Nick Bosa (4.5 sacks between them vs. Las Vegas) holding down the edges. Mahomes is going to have to create magic against two-high safety coverage and a healthy Derwin James. It won’t be easy.
But the Chiefs are at home in front of a frenzied — and not yet freezing — Arrowhead Stadium crowd. That’s what swings this matchup for me, even though there are plenty of reasons why the Chargers could take control of the AFC West Thursday night.
Last week: 1-0 (1.000)
Season to date: 1-0 (1.000)
Upset pick of the week: Pittsburgh Steelers (+1.5) over the New England Patriots
Don’t get me wrong. Bill Belichick absolutely has the chops to embarrass Mitchell Trubisky and his run defense was one of the few bright spots in New England’s Week 1 loss to the Miami Dolphins.
But man, oh man, Mike Tomlin [expletive deleted] hates the Pats. This is his first opportunity to face New England without Tom Brady in the lineup since 2008. That year, the Steelers handed a Matt Cassel-led squad a 33-10 defeat in one of their five losses on the season.
This Pittsburgh team isn’t as good as that group — they went on to win the Super Bowl, after all — but the defense that goaded Burrow into five turnovers now sets its sights on Mac Jones and his sore back. This is a group capable of cracking the Patriots’ offensive line even without T.J. Watt in the lineup.
New England just managed seven points against the Dolphins on the road. Now they get the Steelers in front of what’s sure to be a venomous not-Heinz Stadium.
Last week: 0-1 (.000)
Season to date: 0-1 (.000)
