Labour MPs have warned the end of Sir Keir Starmer’s premiership is in sight after a humiliating by-election defeat in Gorton and Denton that saw the party finish third behind Nigel Farage’s Reform and the victorious Green Party.
The prime minister has vowed to “keep on fighting” and refused to be drawn on speculation about his future after his party failed to retain a constituency considered one of the safest Labour seats in the country.
But furious backbenchers have cast doubt over his ability to lead the country and steer the party to success in the polls, telling The Independent that it is now “just a question of when, not if” he stands down, with the timetable set for the aftermath of the local and devolved elections on 7 May.
To make matters worse for the embattled prime minister, his former deputy Angela Rayner – who is among the candidates tipped to replace him – called for a change in direction for the party following the catastrophic result.
Meanwhile, Green Party leader Zack Polanski declared a historic victory in the former Labour stronghold on Friday morning, claiming the result will “transform the face of British politics”.
The party’s newest MP, plumber Hannah Spencer, said the success meant there is “no part of the country where the Green Party cannot win”, igniting fears within Labour that they could face further crushing electoral defeats at the hands of the left.
It came as:
- Reform UK went to the police to report allegations of “family voting” in the by-election following “concerning high levels” of more than one voter using a single polling booth, according to an election observer group
- The Conservative Party suffered its worst-ever by-election defeat, winning just 2 per cent of the vote and losing its £500 deposit
- Ms Spencer, in her victory speech, said “working hard used to get you something” as she vowed to fight for communities struggling with the cost of living crisis
- Polling expert Sir John Curtice said the result raises questions about “the future of what was once a dominance of British politics by Conservative and Labour”
Election observer group Democracy Volunteers warned it had witnessed “concerningly high levels” of family voting – an illegal practice where two voters use one polling booth and potentially direct each other on voting.
The elections watchdog, the Electoral Commission, later said it was “working very closely with the returning officer, and the police, to review all the available information”.
With speculation mounting about a potential leadership challenge in the wake of the Gorton and Denton result, a defiant Sir Keir, who had made the unusual step for a prime minister of joining campaigners during the by-election, insisted he was going nowhere.
He said: “I came into politics late in life to fight for change for those people who need it.
“I will keep on fighting for those people for as long as I’ve got breath in my body.”
But Ms Rayner led calls for an overhaul of the government, which her supporters took as the latest indication that she will run to replace Sir Keir.
“This result must be a wake-up call. It’s time to really listen – and to reflect,” Ms Rayner said after the defeat. “Voters want the change that we promised – and they voted for. If we want to unrig the system, if we want to make the change we were sent into government to make, we have to be braver.
“A Labour agenda that puts people first. That’s what all of us across our movement need to rededicate ourselves to this morning.”
Backbench Labour MPs were quick to condemn the prime minister, with one claiming his premiership is “dead in the water”.
Speaking to The Independent, Labour MP Brian Leishman called on Sir Keir to go “for the good of the UK and the party”, while another told Sky News the prime minister “must own this catastrophe”.
Normanton and Hemsworth MP Jon Trickett called on Sir Keir “to look in the mirror and make a decision about his own personal future”, while Norwich South MP Clive Lewis added that Starmer’s premiership “has been over for some time”.
He added: “The by-election result is a punch in the face for the Labour Party and for Keir Starmer’s premiership.
“This government has burned its base, alienated its core vote, sidelined its activists and stuck two fingers up to the very people we came into politics to represent. And we’re surprised voters are walking away?”
But Sir Keir’s disgruntled MPs appear to be in agreement that there can be no leadership changes until the local elections in May.
A member of one of the leadership campaigns, ready to launch if the PM steps down, added: “There can’t be a leadership election until May because nobody wants to be fighting a leadership election in the middle of a local election campaign. After that, though, all bets are off.”
One MP, who backs Wes Streeting as a challenger, furiously hit out at cabinet ministers for not forcing Starmer out when Scottish leader Anas Sarwar called for him to resign at the start of the month.
The MP said: “We’re here until May, which is awful. All because the cabinet bottled it.”
Despite the discontent in Labour ranks, Sir Keir blamed the Green Party’s victory on what he described as embracing the “divisive” politics of George Galloway, and insisted they could not beat his party in a general election.
“We’ve seen the true colours of Zack Polanski’s Greens in this campaign,” he wrote in a letter sent to all Labour MPs, accusing Ms Spencer of being “more interested in dividing people than uniting them”.
He added: “It cannot survive a general election campaign.”
But the victory undermines Labour’s claim that it is the only option to beat Reform UK at the polls, with Labour’s deputy leader Lucy Powell earlier admitting the Greens had won the “argument that they were best placed” to keep Nigel Farage’s party out of Gorton and Denton.
The victory is the Greens’ first-ever in a parliamentary by-election and comes despite Labour having won the northwest constituency in 2024 with more than half the vote.
The Green Party’s Hannah Spencer received 14,980 votes, while Reform UK’s Matt Goodwin came second with 10,578, leaving Labour’s Angeliki Stogia slumped in third place with 9,364 votes.
In an emotional victory speech, Ms Spencer said people were being “bled dry” and were “sick of our hard work making other people rich”.
Meanwhile, the Conservatives lost their deposit as they came a distant fourth with just 706 votes, marking their worst-ever by-election result.
Ignoring the disastrous outcome, Tory leader Kemi Badenoch hit out at Sir Keir, saying: “He is in office but not in power. If he had any integrity, he would go.”
The Green Party accused Nigel Farage, who did not attend the count alongside his candidate Matt Goodwin, of undermining the result of the poll after he claimed that there was “sectarian voting and cheating” in the election.
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