Over the past several weeks, as the Taliban swept through half of Afghanistan’s more than 400 districts, set up checkpoints at key highways, and seized border crossings, it has been easy to assume they are on the way to taking over the entire country. Indeed, the Taliban have themselves claimed as much. But there’s no reason to take such propaganda at face value.
That’s not to say that the Afghan government’s own propaganda about retaking lost territory deserves to be taken any more seriously. The reality is that the opposing forces in Afghanistan—which include at least half a dozen anti-Taliban independent militias—are currently far more balanced than most outside observers seem to believe. After the U.S. military withdraws, Afghanistan is most likely headed toward a protracted conflict and a political stalemate.
