DJIA's best day since early February
And finally, Wall Street has closed higher tonight.
The Dow Jones industrial average has ended the day up 631 points, or 1.38%, at 46,208 points.
That’s the DJIA’s best daily gain in six weeks, since 6 February, as hopes of possible de-escalation in the Middle East conflict rippled through markets.
The S&P 500 share index, which is broader than the Dow, finished 1.15% higher – up 75 points at 6,581 points.
That wraps up a dramatic day in the markets, which started with heavy losses in Asia-Pacific bourses (Japan’s Nikkei fell 3.5%), and early drops in Europe – which reversed dramatically after Donald Trump announced that he had instructed the defence department to postpone all airstrikes against Iranian power plants and energy infrastructure for a five day period.
This triggered a recovery in London, stronger gains in other European markets, and a tumble in the oil price, despite denials from Tehran.
Our Middle East blog has all the latest developments
Oil still down below $100
Oil is resolutely lower tonight, despite Iran’s parliament speaker insisting ‘no negotiations’ have been held with the US.
US crude oil (WTI) is down 9.9% at $88.52 a barrel, while Brent crude is 11% lower at $99.66.
Cruise operators have had a strong day on the US stock market.
Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings (+6.6%), Royal Caribbean Cruises (+5.7%) and Carnival (+5.7%) are all among the top risers on the S&P 500 in the last few minutes of trading.
Into the last hour of trading, and the Dow’s still up around 1.8%…
Consultancy Oxford Economics are predicting that the strait of Hormuz will remains impassable until May, despite today’s comments from Donald Trump.
Their new baseline also assumes elevated geopolitical tensions will continue to disrupt trade through Q2 and Q3 this year.
“The temporary postponement of US military strikes in an effort to reach a deal does not materially change that assumption, though it does shift risks to the downside,” the analysis, written by Bridget Payne, Head of Oil and Gas Forecasting and Jack Reid, Oil and Gas Economist at the firm, reads, adding:
“It may prove to be an initial step towards de-escalation, but there remains significant uncertainty around what happens next and it is too early to assume Strait transit will normalise sooner than in our baseline.”
Updated
Today’s swirling markets, driven by online posts and quotes from Donald Trump, are reminiscent of the turmoil almost 12 months ago.
“This is the same type of thing that happened after Liberation Day,” says Robert Pavlik, senior portfolio manager at Dakota Wealth.
Two tankers bound for India have sailed through the strait of Hormuz today, Reuters reports.
The two India-flagged tankers were carrying liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) used mostly for cooking in India. They loaded at anchorages in Kuwait and the UAE, LSEG ship-tracking data showed.
As we flagged this morning, the Pine Gas, which loaded in UAE waters, sailed through the strait followed by the Jag Vasant carrying LPG from Kuwait, ship-tracking data on the MarineTraffic platform showed.
Updated
Wall Street still higher despite Iran's 'fake news' claim
With less than two hour’s trading to go in New York, stocks are still higher – despite Iran’s parliament speaker accusing Trump of ‘fake news’ over the US-Iran talks.
The S&P 500 share index is up 1.4% at 6,600 points, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average is 1.7% higher, amid hopes of de-escalation in the Middle East.
Investors are remaining confident, it seems, despite Iran’s parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf saying that “no negotiations” were held with the United States after US president Donald Trump announced talks were ongoing.
Ghalibaf said in a post on X.
“No negotiations have been held with the US, and fakenews is used to manipulate the financial and oil markets and escape the quagmire in which the US and Israel are trapped.”
CNBC: Volume in stock and oil futures surged minutes before Trump’s market-turning post
There was some unusual market activity in the minutes before Donald Trump surprised and cheered investors by extending Iran’s deadline to avoid the US bombing its power plants.
S&P 500 futures and oil futures flashed an unusual burst of activity early Monday minutes before a market-moving social media post from President Donald Trump.
At around 6:50 a.m. in New York, S&P 500 e-Mini futures trading on the CME recorded a sharp and isolated jump in volume, breaking from an otherwise subdued premarket backdrop. With thin liquidity typical of early trading hours, the sudden burst stood out as one of the largest volume moments of the session up to that point.
5 minutes before Trump’s announcement:
— Adam Cochran (adamscochran.eth) (@adamscochran) March 23, 2026
* $1.5B notional worth of S&P500 (ES) futures are bought in a single clip.
* $192M notional of oil futures (CL) sold.
More than 4x-6x any other trade size during the market close.
Insiders profited from his lies in broad daylight! pic.twitter.com/RhE3hiC0lj
Most European stock markets posted gains today.
Germany’s DAX closed 1.2% higher, France’s CAC 40 gained 0.8% and Spain’s IBEX rose by 1%.
AJ Bell: Uncertainties remain despite 'handbrake turn' in markets
Today saw the market perform “a handbrake turn with juddering speed after President Trump suggested the US and Iran were close to ‘total resolution’ on their weeks-long conflict,” says AJ Bell head of markets Dan Coatsworth.
He adds, though, that there are “significant uncertainties remain for investors to pick through”, saying:
The Iranian regime has refuted the idea of dialogue with the US and, even assuming a deal can be agreed, questions of how and when the Strait of Hormuz will be unblocked and how quickly shipments through this strategically important body of water can get back to pre-war levels will remain.
“There will be a lot of focus in the coming days on whether the Trump administration’s position holds, whether talks can de-escalate the situation and whether the market can build on its new-found momentum. Hints of some renewed tetchiness as European markets headed for the close were a reminder that much is still to be resolved.
“If nothing else, today’s trading highlighted that markets can turn on a sixpence and that’s why time in the market rather than attempting to time the market is the best approach for most long-term investors.”
Back on Wall Street, the Dow Jones industrial average has dipped back from its earlier highs, but is still up 1.44% or 655 points at 46,233 points.
Updated
FTSE 100 closes after a remarkable day
Back in London, the FTSE 100 share index has closed down 24 points at 9,894 points, a drop of 0.24% today.
But that doesn’t capture the scale of today’s action at all!
The morning started with heavy selling, which drove the ‘Footsie’ down by almost 250 points at one stage to its lowest level since early December, adding to last week’s losses.
But there was then a resounding rebound, which put the index up more than 100 points today – back over the 10,000-point mark – after Donald Trump extended by five days his deadline to “hit and obliterate” Iran’s power stations.
Stocks then slipped back, though, as investors digested denials from Iran that constructive talks had taken place, as Trump claimed.
Gambling firm Entain (+8.2%) ended the day as the top riser, after reports of legislation in the US which would block betting on sports events on prediction market platforms.
It was followed by copper producer Antofagasta (+7.3%), with airlines and housebuilders also in the top risers.
But hopes of de-escalation in the Middle East hit shares in defence company BAE System (-4.9%), and BP (-4.2%).
Updated
Eurozone consumer confidence slides as Iran war drive up energy costs
Eurozone consumer confidence has fallen to its lowest level since late 2023 this month, a European Commission survey shows.
In a sign of the economic damage caused by the Iran war, eurozone consumer confidence fell to -16.3 this month from a revised -12.3 in February.
Eurozone consumer confidence took a big hit in March. Unsurprisingly surging petrol and diesel prices are a much bigger and immediate concern than the abstract economic hit from US tariffs, that was softened by partial TACOs and tariff front-running. pic.twitter.com/cIzhbq2hPY
— Oliver Rakau (@OliverRakau) March 23, 2026
Andrew Kenningham at Capital Economics said.
“The four-point drop in March is one of the largest falls on record other than at the start of the pandemic and the Ukraine conflict.”
“Based on our current working assumptions about oil and gas prices, we think household spending will decline and cause GDP to stagnate over the next two quarters.”
The financial markets are now only pricing in two hikes in UK interest rates this year – down from four hikes early this morning.
The European Central Bank is also expected to raise eurozone borrowing costs twice by December.
Recessions can often be preceded by oil price spikes that prompt central bankers to tighten monetary policy., even though higher energy costs are a tax on consumers.
Kit Juckes, chief FX strategist at French bank Société Générale, explains:
Orthodox macro-economic models argue in favour of tightening monetary policy, even though the man or woman in the street wonders why the pain of higher energy, travel and food prices should be compounded by making money more expensive, too.
Market participants know that this is what happens and are pricing in ECB and BOE hikes by June, with a second hike by September. The rates market doesn’t currently price in a Fed hike, so the longer the price of oil stays elevated, the greater the probability of higher rates in Europe, outright and relative to the US, while the European despite Europe’s economic outlook deteriorating modes
Trump has also told reporters in Washington that his Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff and close aide and son-in-law Jared Kushner talked to the Iranians on Sunday and that discussions would continue on Monday.
Speaking before departing Florida to travel to Memphis, Trump said:
“We have had very, very strong talks. We’ll see where they lead. We have points, major points of agreement, I would say, almost all points of agreement... we’ve had very strong talks, Mr. Witkoff and Mr. Kushner had them.
“All I’m saying is, we are in the throes of a real possibility of making a deal.”
Updated
Aberdeen: We need to see than words
Asset manager Aberdeen is cautiously putting its toe into the UK government debt market, after Donald Trump calmed markets (for the moment….) today.
Matthew Amis, investment director at Aberdeen, says Trump’s statement is the circuit breaker that markets needed, adding:
The selling has stopped for the time being after a very weak start to the week. European sovereign markets, as you would expect, are reacting positively to the Trump headlines, despite the Iranian pushback.
However, to materially unwind the moves of the last few weeks, we would need to see more than words and clear action: namely ships moving through the Straits of Hormuz. Markets still have aggressive hikes priced for the UK and Eurozone in 2026. Although we don’t agree with the level, for those to be removed we would need to see energy prices fall a lot further.
Although this is merely a 5 day postponement, we believe today’s headlines at least show that de-escalation is possible. UK gilts have been beaten up over the last few weeks, with yields surpassing 5% on Friday we are therefore very tentatively buying UK Gilts.”
Sky News: Take Trump's announcement with 'grain of salt', says Israeli source
An Israeli source has told Sky News to take Donald Trump’s announcement “cautiously, with a grain of salt”.
They added:
“It’s early Monday morning in the US, the start of the trading week.
“Markets opened higher, largely as expected following the weekend reports on the negotiations and the latest statement by Donald Trump.
“That said, I wouldn’t view this move as a final step. We saw a similar pattern last week.”
US stock market's 'fear index' drops
Wall Streets ‘fear index’ has dropped sharply today, another sign that investors are more optimistic.
The Chicago Board Options Exchange’s CBOE Volatility Index, commonly known as VIX, has dropped by 10% today to 24 points.
It had earlier traded over 30 points just before Donald Trump postponed attacks on Iranian energy infrastructure following “constructive” talks.
Shorter-dated US and UK government bonds are both rallying today, as fears of an inflationary spike from the Middle East conflict ease.
The yield (or interest rate) on two-year US Treasury bills are down 6 basis points (0.06 percentage points) today, at 3.84%.
There’s a bigger fall in UK two-year gilt yields – down 20 basis points at 4.363%. That’s a sharp move – following days in which UK bond yields rose by more than other advanced economies, due to concerns over Britain’s fiscal position in the face of an energy shock.
Donald Trump has been insisting that the US and Iran were in discussions about ending the war, telling reporters there were “major points of agreement” between the two.
The US president said the US is talking to a “top person” within the Iranian regime to try to end the war, but not the new supreme leader, Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamanei.
Speaking after Iranian media denied that talks were happening, Trump declared:
“I didn’t call, they called – and they wanted to make a deal.”
When asked by CNN’s chief White House correspondent Kaitlin Collins who the US is talking to in Iran, Trump was quoted as having said:
A top person. Don’t forget: We’ve wiped out the leadership phase one, phase two and largely phase three.
But we’re dealing with a man who I believe is the most respected and the leader, you know it’s a little tough, they’ve wiped out – we’ve wiped out everybody.
Asked whether the US was talking to Khamenei, Trump said: “No, not the supreme leader.”
Back in London, two round numbers are attracting attention in the City.
The FTSE 100 is bobbing around the 10,000-point mark, which it tumbled through last week.
And Brent crude oil is hovering just above $100 a barrel.
US crude oil down almost 10%
US oil prices have dropped to their lowest level in over a week, on hopes of de-escalation in the Middle East.
The cost of a barrel of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) has fallen by 9.7% today, to $88.72 per barrel, on relief that Donald Trump has delayed any attacks on Iran’s energy infrastructure for at least five days.
Updated
US stock market jumps after Trump's TACO moment
Wall Street has joined the global relief rally after Donald Trump postponed attacks on Iran’s power plants, sending a surge of optimism though trading floors.
In New York, the Dow Jones industrial average has jumped by 2% or 928 points to 46,505 points.
Construction equipment firm Caterpillar (+4.4%), manufacturing conglomerate 3M (+3.7%) and DIY chain Home Depot (+3.65%) are leading the risers.
The broader S&P 500 share index has rallied too, it’s up 1.9%.
Investors are relieved that Donald Trump has extended by five days his deadline to “hit and obliterate” Iran’s power stations and energy infrastructure if Tehran does not allow shipping to move freely through the strait of Hormuz, claiming that the US and Iran have held “very good and productive conversations” on an end to the three-week-old war.
With the markets so volatile today, George Lagarias, chief economist at Forvis Mazars has warned investors to respond only to verified facts.
Lagarias says:
“The volatility of asset prices faithfully mirrors the volatility of events in the Middle East, including competing, and conflicting, statements from Washington and Tehran. Despite the initial jump in risk assets, it’s becoming evident that the situation remains uniquely fluid. De-escalation is as much on the table as re-escalation.
Investors should remain calm and respond only to verified facts and agreed upon deals. At the heart of the market volatility is free movement in and out of the Straits of Hormuz, a very important global trade chokepoint. Until investors get assurance of at least a medium-term resolution that would ensure the resumption of normal trade in the Persian Gulf, they would do well to remain reserved.”
Updated
European rally picks up pace
There’s no end to the volatility in the markets today.
The UK’s FTSE 100 share index is now up 63 points, or 0.64% today, at 9,983 points, despite the share prices of oil companies and weapons makers falling (BAE Systems are down 2.8%).
Tom Stevenson, investment director at Fidelity International, sums up the drama:
“A dramatic U-turn by President Trump has once again triggered gyrations in global financial markets. After heavy falls across bonds, shares and precious metals early on Monday, markets quickly regained their composure after threats to attack Iran’s power networks were abruptly withdrawn via a Presidential post on Truth Social.
“With the White House’s change of direction happening after Asian markets closed but before the US opened, the shift in sentiment played out most clearly in European markets. Having been as much as 2.5% lower, the FTSE 100 bounced back into positive territory within minutes of the US suspending its escalation threat.
“As the week’s trading began, investors had been looking in vain for safe havens as global markets eyed President Trump’s deadline for Iran to re-open the Strait of Hormuz. With Iran threatening retaliation if a promised attack on its power networks materialises, investors were concerned that the conflict has entered a newly dangerous phase.
“Despite a shaky start to the week, the impact on global markets remains relatively contained, as investors rightly price in the ever-present possibility that the US President might change tack. Investors are reluctant to give up on a market which continues to be supported by strong earnings growth and where an early resolution of the conflict could lead to a rebound in prices.
“As well as sharp recoveries in stock markets, bond prices rallied hard on the news. Gilts, where yields had risen above 5%, rose as the yield on the 10-year government bond dipped to 4.9%. That reflected a rapid drop in the price of oil, with the Brent contract falling 10% to $101 a barrel.
Today’s drama in the markets shows that the Bank of England should “sit tight” rather than react rapidly to events in the Middle East, says Professor Costas Milas, of the University of Liverpool’s management school.
Prof Milas tells us:
Trump’s predictably unpredictable post is puzzling. Having repeatedly stated that there is nobody to negotiate with, now Trump reveals that negotiations have taken place. All this creates large swings in financial markets and notably so in market expectations of UK interest rates. At the start of the war, money markets predicted no interest rate changes.
Earlier today, financial markets “concluded” that the BoE will raise interest rates from 3.75% to 4.75% before the end of the year. Now financial markets are thinking about more moderate interest rate rises and will have to wait for Trump’s next social post in order to change their mind yet again.
The point is that the sudden and constant change in market expectations of interest rates, almost entirely driven by Trump’s geopolitical actions and social media posts, demonstrates that the Bank of England’s policymakers should sit tight rather than rushing into any action!
Donald Trump just triggered “one of the most extraordinary market turnarounds in recent history,” says David Morrison, senior market analyst at financial services provider Trade Nation.
Morrison says US stock index futures “turned on a sixpence and roared higher” after Trump posted his (disputed claim) of productive talks with Iran.
He explains:
At around 10:45 GMT the S&P 500 had been trading near the low of the day, below 6,440 [points], and at its worst level since early September. Just twenty minutes later it was within sight of 6,700, jumping close to 4%.
The surge came after President Trump declared that: ‘... the US and Iran, have had, over the last two days, very good and productive conversations regarding a complete and total resolution of our hostilities in the Middle East.’ Crude oil prices cratered, while gold and silver, which had both sold off dramatically overnight, roared back to life tacking on 9% and 14% respectively from their session lows.
Iranian media deny that negotiations have taken place... it takes two to TACO
Iran’s Fars news agency has quoted a source as saying there has been “no direct or indirect connection” between Iran and Donald Trump, in contradiction to the US president’s statement.
Citing an unnamed source, Fars said Trump had retreated after hearing that Iran would respond by attacking all power plants in the region.
This has punctured some of the optimism in the markets.
Oil is now trading at $106.75 a barrel, still down 4.8% today, having ended last week around $112 a barrel.
European stock markets have slipped back a little too, but have still clawed back all this morning’s early heavy losses.
Germany’s DAX, for example, is still up 1%.
Neil Wilson, Saxo UK Investor Strategist, says:
Stocks have staged a monster rally off the lows after President Trump signalled the US and Iran have had “very good and productive conversations” over “total resolution” of hostilities, and that the US would postpone all military strikes against Iranian power plans and energy infrastructure for five days.
He posted on Truth Social but I would treat this with caution and it seems to already be refuted by Iran...it takes two to TACO remember.
Updated
Housebuilders and airlines surge, oil companies plunge
Shares in UK housebuilders and airlines are rallying, as are miners, on relief that Donald Trump has postponed his threatened attacks on Iran’s energy infrastructure.
Specialist chemicals firm Croda is the top riser on the FTSE 100 this morning, up 6.1%, leading today’s TACO rally.
Mining giant Anglo American (+5%), housebuilder Barratt Redrow (+4.5%) and airline IAG (+3.2%) are all in the top risers.
But BP and Shell are both down 3.5%.
Updated
UK bond yields falling
Rachel Reeves will be delighted to learn that UK government borrowing costs are dropping.
The yield, or interest rate, on UK 10-year bonds is now down 3bps at 4.95%, having earlier risen as high as 5.11%, the highest since 2008.
That suggests investors are lowering their expectations for the surge in inflation from the Middle East crisis.
Fears that the Bank of England might hike UK interest rates four times this year have faded.
The money markets are now only pricing in 72 basis points (0.72 of a percentage point) of increases to Bank rate this year, which implies three quarter-point rate cuts by Christmas.
IG: still big questions unanswered after Trump surprise
Trump comments have obviously provided a boost for markets, but traders may be questioning how long it will last.
Oil, for example, has now climbed back to $103.20 a barrel, still down 8% today, but no longer below the $100 mark which it burst through early in the Iranian war.
Chris Beauchamp, chief market analyst at IG, says:
“Trump has sprung his usual surprise on markets, pausing strikes on energy infrastructure as a result of successful talks. But this leaves big questions unanswered - Hormuz remains closed, the damage to energy infrastructure is still there and it is unclear whether airstrikes on other targets will continue.
While this was the headline investors have been hoping for, the fact that Brent has rebounded back above $100 shows that markets remain sceptical.”
US stock market futures up 2%
The US stock market is set to rally when reading begins in under two hours.
Investors are clearly relieved that Donald Trump’s threat to bomb Iran’s power facilities is now off the table – at least for five days.
As a result, Wall Street futures have jumped more than 2%, reversing earlier losses.
European gas prices have reversed their earlier gains, on hopes that energy supplies from the Middle East could be restored soon.
The month-ahead UK gas price is down 3.8% at 144.9p a therm, having hit 159p this morning.
European stock markets are romping higher too.
The pan-European Stoxx 600 share index is now up 1.3%, having been down as much as 2.5% this morning.
"TACO Time - Again" as markets force Trump to de-escalate
Donald Trump’s sudden cheerful take on negotiations with Iran appear to be another example of the president’s TACO approach (Trump Always Chickens Out).
Michael Brown, senior research strategist at Pepperstone, says the rise in US borrowing costs, and the drop in shares on on Wall Street, have reached the Trump Administration’s ‘pain point’.
That has forced President Trump to look for an “off-ramp”, to begin de-escalating military action, he explains.
Brown says:
This is clearly a positive development. The two sides are in discussions, and this is the first material sign of de-escalation that we have seen since conflict broke out at the end of February
The war is not yet over. While positive, it is only strikes on energy infrastructure that have been ruled out at this stage, presumably meaning that kinetic action will continue elsewhere, at least for the time being.
There are caveats. Trump notes in his post that the five day pause will be contingent on the success of ‘ongoing meetings and discussions’, meaning that things could escalate once more, if talks were to fall apart.
Updated
Oil tumbles over 10%
The oil price is plunging, with Brent crude dropping below the $100 a barrel mark a few minutes ago.
Traders are hailing Donald Trump’s post that the US and Iran have held “very good and productive conversations regarding a complete and total resolution of our hostilities in the Middle East.”
Brent Crude from $114 to $101 in just few minutes pic.twitter.com/BigUAYxDw9
— CapMint (@CapMintOfficial) March 23, 2026
Chart: The FTSE's wild morning
Blimey! The FTSE 100 share index is now up for the day, 50 points higher at 9963 points.
This chart shows how the index plunged at the start of trading, fell though the morning, and then dramatically bounced back a few minutes ago after Donald Trump said any and all” military strikes against Iranian power plants were postponed.
Updated
Markets bounce back as Trump postpones power plant strikes after 'very good and productive' talks with Iran
Stock markets are suddenly surging, after Donald Trump claimed that the US and Iran have held “very good and productive conversations” over an end to the conflict.
The London stock market has recovered almost all its earlier losses, after Trump also declared he had postponed any military strikes against Iranian power plants and energy infrastructure for five days.
Posting on Truth Social, Trump writes:
I AM PLEASE TO REPORT THAT THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA, AND THE COUNTRY OF IRAN, HAVE HAD, OVER THE LAST TWO DAYS, VERY GOOD AND PRODUCTIVE CONVERSATIONS REGARDING A COMPLETE AND TOTAL RESOLUTION OF OUR HOSTILITIES IN THE MIDDLE EAST. BASED ON THE TENOR AND TONE OF THESE IN DEPTH, DETAILED, AND CONSTRUCTIVE CONVERSATIONS, WITCH WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE WEEK, I HAVE INSTRUCTED THE DEPARTMENT OF WAR TO POSTPONE ANY AND ALL MILITARY STRIKES AGAINST IRANIAN POWER PLANTS AND ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE FOR A FIVE DAY PERIOD, SUBJECT TO THE SUCCESS OF THE ONGOING MEETINGS AND DISCUSSIONS. THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION TO THIS MATTER! PRESIDENT DONALD J. TRUMP
In the City, the FTSE 100 share index is now down just 10 points at 9907 points, having been down almost 250 points at its lowest level today.
Updated
European stock markets have fallen through the morning, after Iran threatened to lay mines across the entire Gulf if its coasts or islands are attacked
According to the Fars news agency, Iran’s defence council warned:
“Any attempt by the enemy to attack Iranian coasts or islands will naturally, and in accordance with common military practice, cause all access routes and communication lines in the Persian Gulf and the coasts to be mined with various types of naval mines, including floating mines that can be released from the coasts.
“In that case, the entire Persian Gulf will practically find a situation similar to the strait of Hormuz for a long time. This time, along with the strait of Hormuz, the entire Persian Gulf will be practically blocked, and the responsibility for it will lie with the threatening party.”
Global economy 'taken hostage' by Middle East conflict
The “entire global economy has been taken hostage” by the Middle East crisis, Singapore’s foreign minister has warned.
Speaking to Reuters, Vivian Balakrishnan warned that the war against Iran threatens to send Asian economies into crisis.
Balakrishnan warned:
“Right now the closure of the Strait of Hormuz is, in a sense, an Asian crisis.
Reuters adds:
In remarks made over an hour-long interview, he also raised questions about the necessity and legality of the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran that is now entering its fourth week, saying the “entire global economy has been taken hostage” by a conflict that could usher in a financial crisis.
Global financial services firm Ebury have calculated the winners and losers from the Iran war, in the foreign exchange market.
Here are the winners:
US dollar
USD-adjacent currencies (incl. Chinese yuan)
Traditional safe havens
Net exporters of oil and gas (incl. Canadian dollar, Norwegian krone, Australian dollar, Colombian peso, Brazilian real, Nigerian naira, Angolan kwanza)
UK pound - thanks to aggressive BOE rate repricing
However, as most currencies have fallen against the US dollar, the ‘winners’ enclosure still contains some weaker currencies.
The losers on the FX markets are:
Euro
CEE (incl. Hungarian forint)
Asia (incl. South Korean won, Indian rupee, Thai Baht)
East and South Africa (incl. South African rand, Zambian kwacha, Ugandan shilling)
LatAm (Chilean peso, Peruvian sol)
UK valvemaker Goodwin asked to delay dispatching some valves to Middle East
Stoke-on-Trent based valve company Goodwin has seen its value hit by the Iran war.
Shares in Goodwin have fallen by 38% this morning, after it told shareholders that some Middle East customers have asked it to delay sending new valves to them.
The company insists, though, that no orders have been cancelled.
Goodwin told shareholders:
We feel it appropriate to advise that as of the time of writing, none of the many valves we currently have on order for LNG facilities in the Middle East or the USA have been cancelled or placed on manufacturing hold.
However, on certain large Middle East contracts, the Group has been requested to delay the dispatch of valves, reflecting the current geopolitical environment in the Gulf . While these requests have not resulted in cancellations, they may affect the timing of revenues.
Goodwin makes a range of high-tech valves, used at oil and gas production facilities, at oil refineries, in pipelines and at power plants.
The company also warned shareholders it is considering whether to make its dividend policy less generous, “given the escalating Gulf situation and the broader economic environment”.
Emerging markets also in correction territory
Emerging market stocks have tumbled today too, as the Middle East war intensified.
With global risk sentiment into a tailspin, MSCI’s emerging market equity index has dropped by 3.3% this morning to its lowest level in 2026.
That has left the index more than 12% below its record closing high in February, putting it in correction territory (more than 10% off that high).
Updated
“The risk dial has been turned up again on the Middle East conflict, causing widespread turbulence on financial markets,” says Russ Mould, investment director at AJ Bell.
Summing up this morning’s market turmoil, Mould says:
“Donald Trump imposing a tight deadline changed the narrative for markets. Up until yesterday, investors were unsettled by activities but hoped the US president would eventually back down.
“Trump telling Iran it had 48 hours to open Hormuz or the US would destroy its power plants is a complete U-turn from the president’s remarks last Friday that hinted at winding down military operations in the Middle East.
“So far during the current crisis investors have focused on the potential for a short, sharp inflationary shock. That’s an uncomfortable situation, but nothing out of the ordinary. Now the focus shifts to a more serious scenario where any destruction of vital infrastructure in the Middle East could cause major disruption to energy and food supplies on a wider scale, and a notable hit to economic growth with longer-lasting consequences.
“The 10-year gilt yield went back above 5%, having last week touched this level for the first time since the global financial crisis. This is the market’s way of saying the outlook for UK interest rates has radically changed.
“Three weeks ago, the market expected two rate cuts in the UK this year. We’re now looking at a situation where rates could be hiked four times by the end of 2026, according to market probability data. That has significant consequences for consumer and business spending, for the UK economy, and for public finances as the government’s cost of servicing debt would go up and tighten fiscal headroom.
FTSE 100 sell-off deepens as investors 'run out of hiding places'
The rout in London’s stock market is deepening.
The FTSE 100 share index has now fallen by 2% today, a loss of 197 points, to 9721 points.
That’s its lowest level since 17 December, putting the index further in the red for 2026, and deeper into correction territory (more than 10% below its February record high).
Hopes that the Middle East conflict might be swiftly resolved are evaporating fast.
Richard Hunter, head of markets at interactive investor, says
“The trickle is running the risk of becoming a flood as it becomes increasingly evident that the short conflict which investors had been pricing in remains totally elusive.
Investors are running out of hiding places, with equities surrendering strong early-year gains, yields spiking higher and even gold suffering a 7% decline given its inverse relationship with the dollar. Indeed, the strength of the dollar has negative implications for debt denominated in the currency – of particular interest to many Asian countries – while the oil price spike is not only inflationary but threatens to choke business investment and consumer confidence.
Updated
Iran war has 'catastrophic impact on UK mortgage market' as rates rise and products vanish
The interest rate on new UK mortgages is continuing to climb, even though the Bank of England left rates on hold last Thursday.
Expectations that the Bank will raise rates several times this year has driven up the cost of fixed-rate mortgages, new data from Moneyfacts shows.
The average two-year fixed residential mortgage rate today is 5.43%, up from 5.35% on Friday. That’s the highest level since February 2025, up from 4.83% at the start of March.
The average five-year fixed-rate mortgage is up too – to 5.45%, up from 5.39% on Friday. This has risen from 4.95% at the start of March, and is the highest since July 2024.
Hundreds of mortgage products have been pulled from the market too. There are currently 6,144 residential mortgage products available, down from 6,659 on Friday.
Rachel Springall, finance expert at Moneyfactscompare.co.uk, says:
“The shocks caused by the unrest in the Middle East are having a catastrophic impact on the UK mortgage market. Since last week (9 March), the average two-year fixed mortgage rate has risen by around 0.50%, to 5.35% from 4.87%. The two-year swaps are trending around 1% higher since a month ago, so it’s clear more rate increases and product volatility is on the cards.
“Since the start of last week (9 March), product choice in the UK residential mortgage has dipped by almost 1,000 options (977), and some lenders may still need to reassess their position over the coming days. This will not just impact fixed rates, but lenders will now want to reassess their variable rate deals.
“The damage is certainly being felt by two-year fixed mortgages, and in fact, if rates keep moving up as they are, average rates could-well end up inverting again, where the five-year becomes lower than two-year. This abnormality also happened after the fall out from the mini-Budget, and it took around three years for the inversion to end.
“Seeking advice will be essential to secure a mortgage, the market is incredibly volatile right now.”
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Some economists think the money markets are getting carried away by anticipating four quarter-point increases to UK interest rates this year.
Goldman Sachs, for example, have recently predicted rates will remain on hold though 2026.
They told clients on Friday:
While the inflationary concern may be less than 2022 it is growing, and the message from the Bank of England meeting this week was hawkish, and our economists now think that the MPC will remain on hold for longer and maintain Bank Rate at 3.75% throughout 2026 (versus quarterly cuts from July previously).
They see the Committee gradually normalising policy next year to reach an unchanged 3% terminal rate
The pan-European Stoxx 600 index has also fallen into correction territory, dragged down by those losses in London, Frankfurt, Paris, Milan and beyond.
The Stoxx 600 index is down 1.7% at 563.33 points, more than 10% off its high on 27 February.
UK borrowing costs climb
Britain’s government borrowing costs have risen to a fresh 17-year high this morning.
The yield, or interest rates, on 10-year UK gilts has gained 7 basis points (0.07 percentage points) to 5.05%, its highest level since July 2008.
Yields rise when bond prices fall.
Shorter-dated, two-year gilt yields are rising too – up almost 11bps to 4.66%, which looks to be the highest since May 2024.
Britain’s FTSE 250 share index has tumbled by almost 2.5% today.
The FTSE 250 index contains companies too small for the blue-chip FTSE 100 index, and is seen as a better gauge of the UK domestic economy.
Spire Healthcare (-20%) are the top faller, after takeover talks with two private equity firms Bridgepoint and Triton ended without agreement last Friday.
Updated
FOUR UK interest rate increases expected this year
City traders are now betting that the Bank of England will raise interest rates by a full percentage point this year!
The money markets are now pricing in 100 basis points (one percentage point) of increases to UK Bank rate by the end of December.
That would lift rates back to 4.75%, up from 3.75% today – implying four quarter-point increases in rates (or a smaller number of larger hikes).
Last week, after the Bank left rates on hold, governor Andrew Bailey suggested the financial markets were getting ahead of themselves in expecting interest rate rises from the BoE this year.
But investors seem increasingly convinced that it will tighten monetary policy, in an attempt to prevent higher energy prices causing ‘second round’ effects (increased wages and prices)
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IG: recession chances rising by the hour
Chris Beauchamp, chief analyst at IG, says:
“Investors who have spent the weekend watching fresh strikes in the Middle East are now waiting to see what will happen when Trump’s 48 hour deadline expires tonight. But they are in no mood to hang around, and have continued to sell stocks and precious metals.
Each day that the war goes does more damage to the global economy and drives inflation higher, with recession chances rising by the hour.”
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European stock markets join the sell-off
The stock market sell-off that began in Asia-Pacific markets overnight has spread to Europe.
The main indices are all down sharply at the start of trading:
UK’s FTSE 100: – 1.5%
Germany’s DAX: -1.9%
France’s CACX 40: -1.5%
Spain’s IBEX: -1.8%
Traders are responding to a weekend of heightened military action and rhetoric in the Middle East, says Derren Nathan, head of equity research at Hargreaves Lansdown:
The US President has given Tehran until the end of today to reopen the Strait of Hormuz or risk strikes on the country’s power generation facilities. So far, there have been no signs of Tehran backing down, but international diplomatic efforts, including a late-night Sunday call between Donald Trump and Sir Keir Starmer, have intensified in an attempt to avoid further escalation.
FTSE 100 falls in correction territory
Newsflash: the UK’s blue-chip share index has dropped into correction territory, as fears over the Middle East crisis hit share in London.
The FTSE 100 index has dropped by 154 points at the start of trading, a loss of 1.5%, to 9764 points.
That means it has dropped by more than 11% from its record high set on 27 February, just before the Iranian war began.
A fall of 10% or more is classed as a correction.
Almost every share on the FTSE 100 is down, led by precious metal miners Endeavour Mining (-5%) and Fresnillo (-4.9%).
Rolls-Royce (-4.4%) which makes and services jet engines, and British Airways parent company IAG (-3.2%), are also among the top fallers.
Fears that the spike in energy prices will hurt economic growth are weighing on metal prices today.
Copper has fallen to a over three-month low this morning; the benchmark three-month copper contract on the London Metal Exchange has fallen by more than 1.5% to $11,742 a ton, its lowest since December.
Gold is continuing to tumble – it’s now down by more than 6% at $4,218 an ounce.
Quite a reversal, given it hit almost $5,600 an ounce in late January.
Kathleen Brooks, research director at XTB, says:
Last week, the gold price lost the $5,000 handle, this week the $4,000 handle looks like it is at risk. This means another bruising day could be on the cards for UK equities, after heavy losses for the UK-listed gold miners last week, Antofagasta and Fresnillo both saw their stock prices drop 10%. Aside from oil majors and a trickle of well-received corporate news, there are few hiding places for stock investors at this stage of the conflict.
BBG: Two Indian LPG carriers in transit through strait of Hormuz
Bloomberg has spotted that two Indian-flagged vessels carrying liquefied petroleum gas are making their way through the Strait of Hormuz, taking a route close to the Iranian coastline.
They reportt:
The Jag Vasant and the Pine Gas, two India-flagged very large gas carriers flagged to India, traveled northwards from the UAE coast toward Iran’s Qeshm and Larak islands early Monday, ship-tracking data show.
The two supertankers were signaling Indian ownership instead of a destination, but are likely to be heading to India, which has been facing acute shortages of LPG, used as cooking gas. The pair follow two other Indian-flagged LPG vessels that made the transit earlier this month.
And here they are:
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Gas prices up
Wholesale gas prices in Europe have jumped in early trading.
The UK month-ahead gas prices is up 3.1% at 155p per therm, nearly double their levels before the Iran conflict began.
That’s still below below the 180p hit last week, after Israel attacked Iranian South Pars gas field.
The Dutch front-month gas contract is up 3.7% to €61.45 per megawatt hour.
US crude oil futures are rising this morning, up more than $3 to $101.26 per barrel.
European stock markets are expected to fall when trading begins in half a hour’s time.
The futures contract for the UK’s FTSE 100 share index is down over 1% this morning. Last Friday it dropped below 10,000 points, meaning it has lost all its gains for 2026.
🚨 UK markets set for a rough open. FTSE 100 futures down ~1.2% (117 pts), hitting correction territory.
— Mike Ridyard (@RidyardMike) March 23, 2026
📉 Main drivers:
• Escalating Middle East tensions & Hormuz blockade fears 🛢️
• Brent Crude spiking to $113
• Global shift to safe havens
A volatile morning ahead.
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The chief executive of Saudi Aramco, the world’s biggest energy company, is reported to have withdrawn from a major energy conference in Houston, as the situation in the Middle East threatens to escalate further.
The oil is relatively calm this morning, so far anyway.
Brent crude is up 1.2% at $113.34 a barrel, some way below the record highs of nearly $120/barrel seen earlier this month.
Ipek Ozkardeskaya, senior analyst at Swissquote, says:
Oil prices are higher this morning as risks build that regional energy infrastructure could suffer further damage, potentially triggering a larger and more prolonged energy shock.
The IEA’s Fatih Birol warned last week that this conflict could be the “greatest threat to global energy in history”—which can also be read as a reminder of the urgency to accelerate alternative energy efforts.
Iran war energy crisis equal to 70s twin oil shocks and fallout from Ukraine war, says IEA chief
The global energy crisis caused by the war in Iran is equivalent to the combined force of the twin oil shocks of the 1970s and the fallout of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the head of the International Energy Agency has warned.
Fatih Birol, the IEA’s executive director, said the growing fallout could be seriously compounded through interuptions to the “vital arteries of the global economy”, including petrochemicals, fertilisers, sulfur and helium.
Speaking at the National Press Club of Australia in Canberra on Monday, Birol said the depth of the problems in energy markets caused by American and Israeli bombings in Iran, and the closure of the strategic strait of Hormuz, had not initally been properly understood by world leaders.
US dollar up
The US dollar is rising today, as investors seek out a safe haven.
With risk appetite curbed by the escalating retaliatory threats in the Middle East conflict, the dollar’s reputation as a safe-haven asset meant it’s in demand.
The dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies, is up 0.2%, while the pound has lost half a cent to $1.329.
Gold price dropping
The gold price is sliding fast today too.
Spot gold has dropped by 4.6% today to $4,280 an ounce, hitting a nearly four-month low.
Gold is suffering from rising expectations of higher global interest rates, traders say.
Tim Waterer, chief market analyst at KCM Trade, explained:
“With the Iranian conflict into its fourth week, and oil prices hanging around the $100 level, expectations have pivoted from rate cuts to potential rate hikes, which have tarnished gold’s appeal from a yield point of view.”
Asia-Pacific markets hit by Iran ultimatum
Donald Trump’s threat to ‘obliterate’ Iran’s power plants unless the strait of Hormuz reopens is hitting global stock markets today.
A wave of selling is sweeping through Asia-Pacific markets at the start of the week. Japan’s Nikkei has dropped by 3.4% in afternoon trading, China’s CSI 300 has lost 2.8%, and South Korea’s KOSPI index has slumped by 6.5%.
Trump’s ultimatum, and Tehran’s threat to “irreversibly destroy” essential infrastructure across the Middle East in response, means the war is entering a new phase of escalation, analysts warn.
Markets are finally starting to wake up to the gravity of the potential for long-term impact on energy markets, reports Neil Wilson, investor strategist at Saxo UK.
This is an escalatory doom loop – or ‘escalation trap’ with currently no realistic off-ramp. Neither side has an incentive to back down as the costs of doing so are increasing day by day. Each side thinks pushing harder will force the other to back down.
As well as fears of escalation in the conflict, investors are also bracing for rises in interest rates this year, with central banks under pressure to fight a rise in inflation.
Introduction: Iran war to hit growth and push up prices
Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of business, the financial markets and the world economy.
Growth across the UK economy is expected to almost halve this year, as the Iran war drives up energy prices.
New forecasts from KPMG this morning show that UK GDP is only expected to increase by 0.7% in 2026, down from 1.5% in 2025. Back in December, KPMG had forecast growth would slow by less, to 1% this year.
The energy price shock rippling through the UK economy will push up inflation, weigh on spending and delay interest rate cuts, they predict.
KPMG also forecast a slowdown in investment, and. a rise in the unemployment rate – to 5.3% this year and next, up from 4.8% in 2025.
Yael Selfin, chief economist at KPMG UK, said:
“The outlook for growth in 2026 has taken a hit from the impact of higher energy prices, a cooling labour market and weak household spending.
“The weaker growth outlook coupled with growing cost pressures will likely see firms scale back any investment plans over the coming year. Consumers could also cut back on discretionary spending to offset the squeeze from higher prices.
“With inflation likely to re-accelerate from this summer, the Bank of England will be reluctant to move quickly on rates, meaning households and businesses will face higher borrowing costs for longer, even as the economy slows.”
With fears of a new cost of living crisis growing, Andrew Bailey, the Bank of England governor, is due to meet Keir Starmer and senior ministers later today.
The TUC are calling for an emergency taskforce that would bring employers, unions and the government together to help protect the UK from the economic fallout of the US-Iranian conflict.
The agenda
12.30pm GMT: Chicago Fed National Activity Index for February
3pm GMT: EU Consumer Confidence Flash for March
