Stocks shot higher out of the gate Thursday as investors cheered the latest inflation data. However, the enthusiasm faded as the session wore on as market participants parsed some concerning jobs data, with the main benchmarks finishing far from where they started.
Data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed that the July Consumer Price Index (CPI) was up 0.2% month-over-month and 3.2% year-over-year – the latter a slight uptick over the 3.0% annual increase seen in June. Meanwhile, core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices and is often a better tell on future inflation, rose 0.2% on a monthly basis. Year-over-year, core CPI was up 4.7%, below June's 4.8% increase. Areas that saw the biggest price increases were shelter and food.
In other econ news, the Labor Department said earlier that initial jobless claims rose by 21,000 last week to 248,000 – the highest level since late June.
"The Fed has always stressed it would take a long time to tame inflation, and today's data illustrates their point," says Mike Loewengart, head of model portfolio construction at Morgan Stanley. Today's jobless claims "may fuel investor hopes that the tight labor market is loosening up, but we've seen a few head fakes from the weekly numbers in the recent past – we still need to see a clear trend in the monthly numbers," Loewengart notes, adding that the Fed might leave interest rates unchanged next month, but it's unlikely to start cutting them.
Indeed, following today's economic data, expectations remain for the Fed to keep interest rates unchanged at its next meeting in September. According to CME Group, futures traders are pricing in a 91% chance of no rate hike in September, and no additional increases or decreases anticipated for the remainder of the year.
Tapestry to buy Capri in major retail merger
In single-stock news, Capri Holdings (CPRI) stock jumped 55.7% today on news fellow luxury retailer Tapestry (TPR) will buy the Michael Kors parent for $8.5 billion in cash. This works out to $57 per CPRI share, a nearly 65% premium to Wednesday's close at $34.61. TPR stock, meanwhile, slumped 15.9%.
"The deal is transformational for TPR and reshapes the landscape of the handbag space, particularly in the U.S.," says Wells Fargo analyst Irwin Boruchow. "The addition of Michael Kors cements TPR as the number one player in the accessible luxury handbag market in the U.S. by a wide margin," the analyst writes. The additions of Versace and Jimmy Choo position Tapestry to compete with European luxury stocks such as Kering (PPRUY) and LVMH Moët Hennessy (LVMUY), Boruchow adds.
Disney helps Dow outperform
As for the major indexes, all three were up more than 1% mid-morning, but erased the bulk of these gains by the close. The Dow Jones Industrial Average outperformed, finishing 0.2% higher at 35,176, as Walt Disney (DIS, +4.9%) jumped after earnings. The entertainment and media giant reported higher-than-expected fiscal third-quarter earnings, but revenue fell short. The company also said it is raising prices on its Disney+ and Hulu streaming services, though cheaper ad-supported versions remain.
The S&P 500 (+0.03% at 4,468) and the Nasdaq Composite (+0.1% at 13,737) also ended with modest gains.
