The stock market rally came under pressure as the pullback shifted from healthy to concerning. The S&P 500 broke below its 50-day line and tested its 200-day line. The Dow Jones tumbled below its 50-day to 2023 lows. The Nasdaq skidded through its 200-day. The market uptrend is under increasing pressure. The market is pricing in more or faster Fed rate hikes, following a hot inflation report Friday.
Nvidia soared on earnings, lifting chip stocks. But Dow Jones retailers Walmart and Home Depot guided low.
Stock Market Rally Under Pressure
The stock market saw further losses, with the major indexes breaking below key moving averages on fears that the Fed will have to be even more aggressive. Nvidia was among several big earnings winners, but overall leading stocks faltered with the market. The uptrend is under pressure. Treasury yields jumped to their highest levels in months, with the 10-year rate nearly up to 4%.
Economic Data Too Hot
The last batch of economic reports for January packed a wallop — and it wasn't just the inflation data. Personal spending surged 1.8%. Adjusted for inflation, spending rose the most since March 2021. Even new home sales took off, unexpectedly jumping 7% to a 670,000 annual rate. Yet those bursts of activity were fueled by temporary factors: unusually warm weather, an 8.7% Social Security cost-of-living boost and moderating mortgage rates that have already reversed higher.
But the sharpest monthly price increases since last June could leave a lasting imprint on Fed policy. The PCE price index and core PCE, stripping out food and energy, both rose 0.6% on the month. Even worse, that came on top of upward revisions to December price increases. As a result, the steadily declining annual inflation rates unexpectedly reversed higher. The PCE inflation rate ticked up to 5.4%, while core PCE inflation edged up to 4.7%.
The hot inflation data also extended to core nonhousing services, with a monthly 0.6% rise, the fastest since November 2021. This is the category of spending that Fed chair Jerome Powell sees as most important to the inflation outlook.
After the latest batch of data, markets are now pricing in roughly one-third odds that the Fed will hike its key rate by a half-point on March 22.
Nvidia Touts AI Business
The graphics-chip maker beat Wall Street's estimates for its fiscal fourth quarter and guided higher for the current period. But Nvidia revenue and earnings fell 21% and 33%, respectively, in the quarter ended Jan. 29, as gaming chip sales remained weak. But investors focused on CEO Jensen Huang's comments that artificial intelligence technology is at an inflection point. Netflix also promoted new cloud-based AI services. NVDA stock rocketed after the report.
Walmart, Home Depot Guide Low
The big-box Dow Jones retailers both offered cautious outlooks for the year ahead. Walmart easily beat Q4 EPS views with revenue also topping. Home Depot topped profit targets but revenue fell just short. The home improvement giant said it'll spend an extra $1 billion to boost pay for front-line workers. WMT stock rose Tuesday on earnings, but fell for the week. Home Depot fell sharply, weighing on Lowe's and several other housing-related retailers. However, Floor & Decor reported a 45% EPS gain, beating views, while the flooring retailer's 15% revenue gain just missed. FND jumped Friday.
Toll Brothers Tops, Remains Upbeat
The luxury homebuilder reported fiscal Q1 EPS climbed 37% while revenue fell less than 1% to $1.78 billion. Toll Brothers delivered 1,826 units, near the high end of its guidance. It expects to deliver 2,050-2,150 units in Q2 with an average home price of $980,000-$1,000,000. For the full year, Toll predicts 8,000-9,000 units delivered with selling prices of $965,000-$985,000. Meanwhile, overall new- and existing-home sales have trended sharply lower amid higher mortgage rates.
Tesla China Registrations Fall Again
Tesla insurance registrations in China fell to 5,913 in the week ended Feb. 19, vs. 6,963 in the prior week and 8,643 before that. That could reflect waning demand after an initial burst on price cuts. However, exports could be limiting Tesla EVs for local delivery. The next few weeks should clarify. Meanwhile, BYD reported 37,026 registrations, up 18%. Li Auto, Nio and XPeng showed modest week-to-week gains.
Alibaba Beats, But Price War Hits Sector
Alibaba beat estimates on the top and bottom lines, as the China e-commerce giant fought through softer demand and supply chain woes. Search-and-AI giant Baidu also beat earnings and revenue estimates and announced a $5 billion buyback plan. NetEase fell short on earnings and matched revenue estimates. The worst of the tech crackdowns may be over, but burgeoning price wars may hurt profits. JD.com said it will spend $1.5 billion to create a budget-conscious e-commerce website that will challenge Pinduoduo, the core business of PDD Holdings.
BHP, Rio Profits Fall With Metals Prices
BHP reported a 32% drop in first-half net profit due to weaker prices for iron ore, copper and other base metals. Rio Tinto reported weaker-than-expected Q4 profit for similar reasons, though revenue topped. Base metal miner stocks rallied strongly in late 2022 and in January as China reopening hopes boosted iron and copper prices from recent lows, but copper has slumped again. Miners' shares have paused in recent weeks. BHP and Rio stock fell in the latest week.
Energy Earnings Mixed
Shale producers Diamondback Energy, Northern Oil & Gas, EOG Resources and Callon Petroleum reported mixed Q4 results while Matador Resources beat projections and gave bullish 2023 production guidance. Offshore contract driller Transocean reported a wider-than-expected loss while offshore services firm Helix Energy beat analyst Q4 predictions, ending a seven-quarter string of quarterly losses.
Industrial Equipment Firms Split
Nordson reported Q1 EPS fell 6%, slightly more than expected, while sales were just flat. NDSN stock plunged. Ingersoll Rand reported a surprise 6% EPS gain with revenue up 14% to $1.62 billion. IR stock is around a buy point.
News In Brief
Palo Alto Networks reported fiscal Q2 EPS rose 81% year over year, easily beating. Including acquisitions, revenue rose 26% to $1.7 billion, slightly topping. Annual recurring revenue from next-generation cloud products surged 63% to $2.33 billion, topping estimates of $2.25 billion. Palo Alto guided higher on Q3 EPS but slightly lower on revenue.
TJX Cos., a leading off-price retailer, gave a soft earnings outlook for the new fiscal year, after posting in-line earnings and a slight revenue beat for the holiday fourth quarter. TJX became the latest retailer to signal a consumer slowdown amid inflation. Q4 EPS rose 14% while revenue grew 5%. The operator of T.J. Maxx and Marshalls brands stores plans a 13% dividend hike and up to $2.5 billion in share buybacks.
Stellantis posted record full-year results. Net profit grew 26% to 16.8 billion euros ($17.9 billion). Net revenues rose 18% to 179.6 billion euros. Global EV sales jumped 41% for the year. Shares of Stellantis, parent of Chrysler, Fiat, Peugeot and more, jumped.
Moderna tumbled Thursday after a 68% EPS decline came in well short of Q4 views. Sales fell 29.5% to $5.08 billion, but came in ahead of projections. Moderna also issued a light outlook for 2023. The mRNA vaccine maker gained a breakthrough designation for its Merck-partnered cancer vaccine.
Wingstop easily beat Q4 expectations, with EPS soaring 155% and revenue jumping 46% to $104.9 million, marking three quarters of accelerating growth for both. Shares initially jumped but slashed gains.
Emcor reported EPS grew 39%, the third straight quarter of accelerating growth. The electrical construction and mechanical services firm gapped up out of a base.
Intuit crushed fiscal second-quarter views, thanks to strong sales of financial software for small businesses. EPS jumped 42% as revenue grew 14% to $3.04 billion. But it only reiterated in-line full-year guidance.
Autodesk reported a 24% EPS gain with Q4 sales up 9%, but the design software maker disappointed with its earnings outlook for the current quarter and full year ahead.
Booking Holdings reported quarterly earnings that soared 56% a share, easily beating. Revenue jumped 36% to $4.05 billion, slightly beating.
NetApp earnings per share fell 5%, beating views, while the 5% revenue decline missed. Shares of the data storage and networking gear maker fell sharply.
