The success of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in the three central Indian States of Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, and Chhattisgarh has forced Odisha’s ruling party, the Biju Janata Dal (BJD), to sit up and take notice.
The State BJP leaders hope that their party’s Assembly wins, especially in Chhattisgarh, eight of whose districts share their boundaries with the central Indian State, will have a ripple effect in Odisha. On the other hand, the BJD, known for its well-oiled election machinery, is not looking to take any chances.
Sources say the BJD, led by its President and Chief Minister Naveen Patnaik, is working on a two-pronged strategy to secure its sixth consecutive triumph in the Assembly election, scheduled with the Lok Sabha poll, next year.
Mr. Patnaik, who remains the biggest vote-puller for the party, is likely to start a tour of all the districts towards the end of January next year, where he will be accompanied by his most trusted aide, V.K. Pandian.
In the meanwhile, the Odisha CM is likely to unveil some big-ticket projects, such as the Lower Suktel Irrigation Project in Balangir district, and conclude the distribution of long pending land pattas (record of rights) to generate a buzz in the State.
Mr. Pandian, a former 2000-batch IAS officer who resigned from the civil services and joined the BJD last week, is also expected to embark on individual tours of various districts to gauge the mood within the party cadre and help quell dissent that may arise after the distribution of tickets. The Tamil Nadu-born former IAS officer is known to have played a crucial role in strategising the earlier electoral success of the CM.
Weighing in on the value Mr. Pandian brings to the BJD, senior journalist and former Congress leader Satya Nayak said, “He is uniquely positioned as he knows the bureaucracy and has managed previous BJD elections from behind the scenes. Now, he will directly handle the party affairs. No leader in BJD can challenge him.”
Track record
The BJD will go into the next year’s elections on the back of an enviable track record.
In 2019, the party won 12 of the 21 Lok Sabha seats, with the BJP winning eight and the Congress winning one. In the State poll, the BJD got 44.71% votes and came to power in the 147-member house with 112 seats. The BJP was a distant second, with 23 seats, while the Congress had to contend with just nine seats.
Three years later, the ruling party won panchayat polls with a comprehensive margin, securing 52.73% votes and winning 766 out of 852 zila parishad seats. The same year, it also won the urban local body polls, with 73 out of 105 municipalities and notified area councils under its belt.
“Despite securing thumping victories in the panchayat and local body elections last year, there is no sense of complacency in the party. Anything can happen in a week’s time in politics. We know we cannot let our guard down,” a senior BJD leader said.
The defeat of the K. Chandrashekhar Rao-led Bharath Rashtra Samiti (BRS) in Telangana has come as a wake-up call for BJD. Like the BRS, the BJD has come to be associated with its ‘womb-to-tomb’ schemes that allow beneficiaries to avail of various benefits at every stage of their lives.
“However, the defeat of the BRS has shown that we cannot rely on beneficiary programmes alone to get votes,” the BJD leader said, adding that the party needs to work on energising its cadre and championing innovative initiatives while steering clear of the race to pledge subsidies.
Big challenge
According to senior journalist and political analyst Rabi Das, the party’s biggest challenge going into next year’s elections will be factionalism.
“There is no doubt that factionalism is the biggest challenge the BJD’s will have to deal with. Apart from sitting MLAs, all the second-rung leaders are hoping to get tickets. The situation is likely to explode after tickets are finalised,” Mr. Das said.
“The BJD is approaching the elections on the basis of its clean image and popularity among the electorate. Many senior leaders are likely to be dropped if internal assessments go against them. In that situation, the party may give tickets to their spouses to placate them,” he added.
A senior party leader said, “As the BJD has been in power for the past 25 years, its cadre is expecting the moon from the high command. The ticket-hopefuls want the party to spare enough funds for their campaigns.”
With just a few months left for the elections, the State is preparing for a big shake-up of the bureaucracy. Sources say the government has finalised the list of Block Development Officers, which are responsible for implementing a large number of welfare programmes on the ground.
Several transfers of IPS and Deputy Superintendent of Police-rank officers are also likely over the next two weeks. Sources say that by January 5 next year, some district collectors and top secretaries will also be shifted to new positions.
BJP State president Manmohan Samal said the party’s success in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, and Chhattisgarh will undoubtedly have an impact on Odisha’s politics. “The momentum is now with us,” said Mr. Samal.
