As the AFL was reminded again last weekend, to its significant chagrin, there is no such thing as a certainty in sport after a round that damaged reputations and decimated finals hopes. Not only did a goal review farce sink Adelaide and further dent the battered commodity known as the integrity of the competition, a string of shock results in the penultimate round has largely robbed the AFL of a fairytale lead-in to the finals series.
The suspense is not completely killed off as flag contenders jostle for position but the final round of the season is not the blockbuster envisaged earlier this month. Both the competition and broadcasters will be hoping the Western Bulldogs can rediscover their bark and bite against Geelong on Saturday to set the scene for a Sunday night special. A Bulldogs triumph would see them draw level on points with the eighth-placed Giants, which would then need to defeat Carlton at Marvel Stadium on Sunday night to qualify.
This is not the finale the AFL hoped for when bidding to design a “crescendo into what is sure to be a hotly contested” finals series by delaying the scheduling of its round 24 fixture until just over a fortnight ago. Even in the midst of a Women’s World Cup success beyond Fifa and Australia’s wildest dreams, the AFL snared headlines with more than a dozen sides in contention for a spot in the eight.
It might seem humdrum to some, but the release of the AFL fixture each year has become a key event in its own right to be promoted, one sold with panache to the football masses. The strategic leaks, a skillset honed to perfection throughout each off-season to ensure the AFL retains prominent real estate, worked wonders given the media traction.
Collingwood, Brisbane, Port Adelaide and Melbourne were guaranteed finalists but 10 other clubs were also in contention for September when the floating fixture was finally fixed. As recently as Saturday’s twilight session in Sydney, when Essendon stepped out against the Giants, there were still 13 clubs capable of winning this season’s premiership.
But then the Bombers crashed to Earth when humiliated by 126 points. From that moment the potential multimatch crescendo with finals at stake fell as flat as a Sherrin losing its air. Geelong’s premiership defence ended in a whimper that night while the inexplicable blunder in Adelaide cruelled the hopes of the Crows while also knocking out Richmond.
Rarely had a side looked more of a lock than the Western Bulldogs but their astonishing loss to the lowly Eagles on Sunday placed them in significant peril. The Bulldogs must end a drought in Geelong dating back to when Gary Ablett Jr sported a full head of blond locks in 2003 to guarantee an intriguing season’s end on Sunday night. It shapes as a more manageable task than usual, for Geelong has scheduled surgery for champion forwards Tom Hawkins and Jeremy Cameron among other Cats who will miss the clash. But the Bulldogs will be without prolific midfielder Jack Macrae, whose streak of 119 consecutive games is complete after he was ruled out with concussion.
Now to the positives, for there is still much at stake for contenders seeking to earn home finals, stars pursuing individual accolades and club favourites departing the stage. It will be a historic series as it is the first year VFL/AFL foundation clubs Carlton, Melbourne and St Kilda have all qualified for the finals in the same season.
The past two flags have been won by minor premiers Geelong and Melbourne, and Collingwood, despite a recent form wobble, are clear favourites to claim the distinction this year. The Magpies will secure the minor premiership by defeating the Bombers at the MCG on Friday night but have lost three of their past four and have significant injury concerns.
A slip-up would enable Brisbane the chance to secure top position should they defeat St Kilda, which has remained in the eight throughout Ross Lyon’s second coming as coach. The Lions would be equally satisfied to confirm a top-two spot given the position guarantees two home finals at the Gabba, a venue they are unbeaten at this season.
Port Adelaide rediscovered their form against Fremantle in Perth last Sunday and can snare second spot should the Lions falter, but could also slip to fourth if they fall to Richmond. While surprises in those matches would change things, the Demons are likely to face Collingwood at the MCG in a qualifying final.
Carlton, St Kilda, the Swans and the Giants all have claims to hosting elimination finals, with results in their matches to determine the finishing order in the lower-portion of the eight. An injury to Magpie Nick Daicos in August led to a tightening of the Brownlow medal market, while the AFL rising star award is a race between Harry Sheezel and Will Ashcroft.
Carlton’s Charlie Curnow has an eight-goal buffer in the Coleman medal and is favoured to win it for the second straight year. No such thing as a certainty in sport? Surely the big Blue is a lock. But who would wager on it after the upheaval that unfolded last weekend?
