Well that was strange, huh?
A few days after beating a top-10 Texas team with Mike Miles Jr. scoring a single point, TCU floundered in its regular season finale with a 74-60 blowout loss at Oklahoma.
The game was ugly from the jump and never got better as the Horned Frogs spent nearly all 40 minutes trailing by double digits and I won’t sit here and pretend like the result wasn’t alarming at all.
How could the same team that smoked Kansas State, Kansas and beat Baylor and Texas could get rolled by an Oklahoma team that is below .500?
Well for one that’s just life in the Big 12. The Sooners’ record isn’t great, but Oklahoma has beaten four ranked teams this season including blowing out likely No. 1 seed Alabama in Norman. And ultimately TCU’s defeat was just one of many surprising results around the Big 12.
Kansas got rolled by 16 against Texas, Iowa State blew out Baylor despite not having its third-leading scorer and Kansas State fell on the road to West Virginia. At this point, I think all the league teams are tired of the grueling gauntlet and just want to play somebody from a different conference.
And this isn’t letting the Horned Frogs off the hook from what could easily be considered an embarrassing loss, this is turning attention to the bigger picture: the postseason.
Because what will define this season, a season with more expectations than any other, will be how TCU performs in postseason play starting with its Big 12 Conference Tournament quarterfinal matchup with Kansas State on Thursday in Kansas City.
The tournament is as wide open as it’s ever been with all the contenders having a fatal flaw. For TCU, we know it’s the Horned Frogs three-point and free throw shooting that could doom the team in the conference or NCAA Tournament.
What about Kansas? The Jayhawks are extremely reliant on Jalen Wilson and Gradey Dick for offense and this may be the smallest team coach Bill Self has ever had in Lawrence.
Baylor? The Bears don’t defend at a high level, don’t have great size and live and die by the 3-point line most nights.
Kansas State? One of the best stories in college basketball, the Wildcats were just 4-7 on the road. K-State was 3-0 at neutral sites but those wins came over Nevada, LSU and Rhode Island. Only Nevada has a winning record this season and the Wildcats aren’t the deepest team either.
Texas? The Longhorns have the best collection of talent in the league, but sometimes it feels like there are too many chefs in the kitchen and I have questions about a team whose best player (Marcus Carr) relies a lot on knocking down tough, contested shots.
Iowa State? Just dismissed Caleb Grill (9.5 points, 37% 3-point) for not meeting program standards and the Cyclones’ offense was already lacking firepower even with him.
The bottom four teams of West Virginia, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State and Texas Tech are all capable of going on a run and scoring some upsets, but the champ will likely emerge from the group of six teams that were able to secure those first-round byes.
Why could TCU be the last team standing in Kansas City? Because when the Horned Frogs play to their capabilities, they check all the boxes. KenPom is one of the top college basketball analytics site TCU currently has a top-25 defensive efficiency according to their metrics.
Check.
Defense leads to offense and the Horned Frogs still have the nation’s best fast break offense. Check.
What about an experienced star guard that can create his own shot and for others? Miles is a likely first team All-Big 12 pick and one of the most valuable players in the country. Check.
Depth? Due to an injury to Miles, TCU may have the best bench in the league outside of Texas. JaKobe Coles, Micah Peavy, Xavier Cork and Shahada Wells have all had signature moments in conference play and any of the four can be counted on to potentially start or close a game. How many teams can say that about their bench? Another check.
TCU is also the healthiest it’s been since January? The preseason? Eddie Lampkin Jr. missed the Oklahoma game on Saturday due to personal reasons, but should be available in Kansas City. Rondel Walker and Souleymane Doumbia also returned from injuries meaning TCU will have its full roster available. Check.
So if TCU checks all these boxes, why aren’t the Horned Frogs a lock to win it all? Because the Big 12 field is too elite to just assume a team is going to roll for three or four straight games.
And while the Horned Frogs have a Final Four/Elite Eight type of ceiling, there have been enough results this year to show that TCU’s floor might be lower than say a Kansas or Texas.
So the question all boils down to this, which TCU will show up in Kansas City? The one that went into Lawrence and pounded the Jayhawks or the one that trailed 17-2 in the opening minutes to Oklahoma?
The former can win the Big 12 tournament and much more. The latter is a team that could get sent home earlier than anticipated.
