Italy have been beaten by an average of 45 points a game on their past four visits to Twickenham, but no longer is this fixture surrounded by the same crushing sense of inevitability. England have won one of their past five home Tests while the Azzurri’s fizzing attacking rugby against France in Rome last Sunday further underlined their rising ambitions.
It is necessary, even so, to go all the way back to Huddersfield in November 1998 to find the last time England were at risk of losing to Italy on home soil, a late try by Will Greenwood ensuring a scrappy 23-15 win in a Rugby World Cup qualifier. Almost a quarter of a century on, an Italy victory would still be a memorable Six Nations moment.
The starting XV selected by England suggests they are taking little for granted. Once upon a time they would have rested one or two senior individuals and experimented here and there. Instead, Steve Borthwick has picked a more direct 10-12 combination and the inclusion of Jack Willis at openside flanker is designed to make life much harder for Italy at the breakdown.
F Steward (Leicester); M Malins (Saracens), H Slade (Exeter), O Lawrence (Bath), O Hassell-Collins (London Irish); O Farrell (Saracens, capt), J Van Poortvliet (Leicester); E Genge (Bristol), J George (Saracens), K Sinckler (Bristol), M Itoje (Saracens), O Chessum (Leicester), L Ludlam (Northampton), J Willis (Toulouse), A Dombrandt (Harlequins).
Replacements J Walker (Harlequins), M Vunipola (Saracens), D Cole (Leicester), N Isiekwe (Saracens), B Earl (Saracens), A Mitchell (Northampton), M Smith (Harlequins), H Arundell (London Irish).
The debate over the relative merits of Owen Farrell and Marcus Smith at 10 – the court of public opinion still seems to be largely split – will not be settled inside 80 minutes, but this is a significant occasion nonetheless. Smith has been England’s fly-half for their past 15 Tests, while Farrell has not started there for two years. Even after 102 caps, the latter will be aware this is a game he needs to grab by the scruff.
Playing for Saracens that is rarely a problem and Borthwick will also be looking to his latest midfield combination of Ollie Lawrence and Henry Slade to respond positively. Then, at some stage, on will come the turbo-charged cavalry in the shape of Smith, Northampton’s Alex Mitchell and London Irish’s Henry Arundell with the aim of finishing the Italian job in style.
Italy, though, possess a decent scrum and a talented, improving back row. If England’s strategy involves kicking loosely towards the razor-sharp Ange Capuozzo at full-back, it will rank among the dimmest tactical plans in modern Six Nations history.
Scotland’s four tries last week, not least Duhan van der Merwe’s double whammy, have put the onus on England to crank up their defensive line speed and first-up tackling. They will certainly try to heap pressure on Italy’s scrum-half, Stephen Varney, but as their latest weekly podcast reviewer Eddie Jones has pointed out they will need to pay careful attention to their defensive spacing as well.
With four competitive games before August’s Rugby World Cup warm-up fixtures, Borthwick’s other big priority is to identify his most effective line-up. Struggle at home against Italy in English rugby’s supposed coliseum and that assessment will become even harder. Win well, on the other hand, and hopes of an overdue Six Nations upturn will be tentatively revived.
