Much of England goes to the polls on Thursday in local elections that will set the political tone going into the summer. The balance of power ought to be clear: Labour holds double digit poll leads, and is favoured on every issue by voters who report exasperation with the government and eagerness for change. Yet the mood in Westminster is more uncertain – Labour fears, and the Conservatives hope, that the tide can still turn before the general election arrives.
The task for Rishi Sunak in his first electoral test is clear. The tide is against his party, so he needs to set the bar low and hope disaster is at least averted. It does not help that his party are more exposed than usual with this year’s contests mainly on blue-leaning territory. Yet the Conservatives also have a weaker than usual starting position, thanks to the electoral wipeout they suffered in 2019, when nearly all of the seats being contested were last fought. The 2019 contest took place in the dog days of the May government, with Nigel Farage’s Brexit party surging in the polls. It was a disaster for the Tories, with more than 1,300 seats lost, but meltdown then means less exposure now. The Conservatives are defending fewer vulnerable seats and may even recover ground in some quarters. Every defence against the tide and unexpected gain will be seized upon as a sign of resilience.
