The country’s statistics agency says it is figuring out how it can deliver a traditional census in 2028, following a parliamentary impasse over modernisation efforts – despite previously saying it lacked both the time and the money to do so.
Political parties have traded blows over who is to blame for the situation, with the statistics minister accusing Labour of pulling its support at the 11th hour but the opposition saying the Government had not provided a credible plan.
The coalition last year announced plans to abandon the five-yearly count due to rising costs and problems with data collection, instead relying on administrative data already collected by government agencies and an annual survey of a subset of the population.
The proposal has attracted criticism from some who fear it will reduce the reliability of government statistics – particularly for minority groups – and associated spending.
The move away from a periodic census would require changes to so-called reserved provisions in the Electoral Act, which cannot be repealed or amended without either a 75 percent majority in Parliament or a public referendum.
Labour initially offered its tentative backing, but in a select committee report last week said it could not support the changes until an independent review of the proposals had been carried out.
Speaking at Parliament on Tuesday, Labour leader Chris Hipkins said the party recognised the need for modernisation, but could not support wholesale removal at this point in time.
“What the Government is currently proposing – of just completely abolishing the census and relying on administrative data – potentially leaves too many holes, particularly around issues like homelessness.”
Asked how the party would find a resolution if it formed government, given Stats NZ had indicated it did not have the time or resources to run a traditional census in 2028, Hipkins said: “The questions around how to manage that sit with the current Government up until the election, and that’s something that we would look at after the election.”
The party’s finance spokesperson Barbara Edmonds offered little detail on how – or whether – it would find the $300m to $400m that a traditional survey-led census in 2028 had been estimated to cost, saying its MPs had been holding “constructive discussions” with the Government but was yet to formalise a caucus position.
“The good thing is that there is that discussion happening, because we are really clear that there are some obvious fiscal pressures the other way.”
Statistics Minister Scott Simpson said Stats NZ had a statutory obligation to prepare a census for 2028, and would “need to get on with that job” given the necessary law changes could not get through Parliament before the election.
Simpson denied the Government had sought to push the changes through without sufficient consultation, saying: “This is an initiative of the chief government statistician, it is an initiative that’s come out of Stats NZ. It’s been in ferment for several years now, and for Labour not to support it at the 11th hour is disappointing but not unexpected.”
Delay an option
One option available to the next government would be to defer the census until a later date, as was done when the 2011 census was pushed back to 2013 following the Christchurch earthquakes.
Unlike the reserved provisions of the Electoral Act, legislation allowing for such a delay could be passed through Parliament with a simple majority – something Hipkins said Labour would “leave on the table” as an option.
“The clear thing for us is we don’t want to make a change that then results in a whole lot of very valuable data that’s really important to decision making, not just by government but by a whole lot of other actors in the economy, disappearing, and so we want to know that those gaps can be filled.”
Former government statistician Len Cook, a staunch critic of the proposed changes, told Newsroom the outcome was a win for the community following widespread concern from public submitters.
“If there’s one thing government’s done in the last half a century or more that people know they’ve got to trust, it’s the five-yearly population census, and I think that the statisticians have focused too much on getting ministers and public officials on side without thinking of the broader community.”
Cook said the per-capita costs of the 2023 census were twice as high as any other in the last 100 years, meaning it should not be taken as a new standard, while Stats NZ could work with demographers and population experts to develop a slimmed-down set of questions for 2028.
Delaying the 2028 edition was also worthy of consideration, as it could allow New Zealand to align its census with Australia and benefit from trans-Tasman data integration and information sharing.
In a statement on its website, Stats NZ said there were “a number of questions” it had to address following the select committee report.
Stats NZ chief executive and government statistician Colin Lynch said the agency’s plans for a more modern approach would allow data and statistics to be produced annually in a more cost-effective and sustainable way, providing New Zealanders “more timely and relevant information to support decision making and planning”.
Until the future legislative framework was confirmed, it was required to deliver a census in 2028, and had started planning what that would look like if necessary.
“As government statistician, I am committed to delivering high-quality data that is meaningful, relevant, and timely and we will work hard to achieve that. I will ensure we are prepared to meet our statutory obligations under any future scenario,” Lynch said.
A Stats NZ spokesperson told Newsroom the agency had received legal advice suggesting the timing of the next census could not be changed without a supermajority.
The agency declined to release the advice, citing legal privilege, and said the delay following the Christchurch earthquake was “under different circumstances” – although it did not elaborate on why that could not be done again as an interim measure.
* August 5: This article has been updated with additional comment from Stats NZ about legal advice it has received on whether it can delay the census.
