Primaries for state legislative incumbents in states with trifectas have become more competitive since 2016. A trifecta happens when one political party holds the governorship and majorities in both chambers of the state legislature. In 2016, the percentage of state legislative incumbents facing a primary challenger was 20.6%. In 2018, it was 21.9%, and in 2020, it was 20.4%. In 2022, that percentage increased to 26.8%.
Ballotpedia uses the number and percentage of incumbents in contested primaries to help determine the overall competitiveness of an election cycle.
Among Democratic trifectas, Rhode Island saw the most change in competitive primaries between 2016 and 2022. Democratic primaries saw 19.8% of primaries be contested in 2016. That percentage increased to 23.3% in 2018, 28.9% in 2020, and 33.7% in 2022. Republicans in the state had zero contested primaries from 2016 to 2020, but 7.7% of primaries were contested in 2022.
