Sir Keir Starmer has made a final desperate plea to voters in Gorton and Denton, urging them to turn against “toxic” politics and make a choice between “unity or division” in a crucial by-election which experts believe could herald a new era of British politics.
With the vote expected to be a major test of his leadership, the prime minister made a last-ditch attempt to persuade voters to back his party. Labour appears to be neck and neck with the Greens and Reform in a fight to win the Greater Manchester seat, with any of the three parties in with a chance of winning.
It came as Green Party leader Zack Polanski told The Independent that his party is “on the cusp of transforming British politics”, with the party tipped to potentially pull off a shock victory – risking Labour being relegated into third place in what was its seventh safest seat in the country.
In a final rallying cry, Sir Keir said: “The choice at today’s by-election could not be more stark. Unity or division. Driving down the cost of living with Labour or driving a wedge between communities under Reform. Moving forwards together, or opening up anger and division that holds our country back.
“Reform’s candidate Matthew Goodwin thinks people who aren’t white can’t be English and wants women who choose not to have children to pay more tax. Vote Labour in Gorton and Denton today to send him and his toxic politics packing.”
He added: “Only Labour’s Angeliki Stogia can unite communities in Manchester and Tameside and stop Reform. A vote for the Greens or any other party just risks letting Goodwin in through the back door.”
With Nigel Farage making a final trip to Gorton and Denton on Wednesday evening, leading pollsters said they believe the by-election is a microcosm of what is to come in British politics running up to the general election – and suggested it could lead to a “realignment” of the left.
Professor Sir John Curtice said: “All that the polls tell us is what we might have anticipated anyway - there are three parties in with at least a shout. It will not make it easy for voters who are minded to do so to work out how best to vote tactically. But the result will likely reflect the fragmentation of British politics.”
Labour MPs, meanwhile, have raised fears that a victory for the Greens would be worse than one for Reform.
One MP said: “It will give our voters permission to vote Green because they will believe that it is an alternative party on the left which can win. This will split out vote in dozens of seats and let Reform in with a split vote on the left.”
A senior minister told The Independent: “My fear is that we will react to a Green victory by tacking very hard to the left which will leave us in a worse position than we are now.”
Pollster Lord Robert Hayward said: “If the Greens win, it is the shape of things to come, both because it shows that people are willing to leave the Labour Party to vote Green, but also because the Workers Party and Your Party have stood aside for the Greens.
“Now, if you look at a number of places around the country, particularly east London boroughs like Redbridge, Newham, Waltham Forest, Hackney... if the Greens can show that they can do well in a coalition with the progressives, then I wouldn't be at all surprised to see kind of joint tickets in a number of those London boroughs against Labour.”
Labour MPs have suggested that the prime minister will not face an immediate challenge, even if the party comes third, because they do not want a leadership election while they are fighting the local and devolved elections on 7 May.
But a number believe those manoeuvres will come after the local elections.
A minister noted: “If things go badly in May then the prime minister will be very vulnerable.”
Sir Keir, for his part, tried to ignore the threat from the Greens and portrayed the contest as a straight fight with Reform.
On Wednesday, he tried to ram home the message during a fiery session of Prime Minister’s Questions in the Commons where he confronted Nigel Farage and made a fresh attack on the Greens policy to legalise drugs.
Sir Keir attacked Mr Farage over a Facebook post shared by Simon Evans, Reform's deputy leader of Lancashire Council, which featured a picture of Bolsover MP Natalie Fleet.
The post also included a comment, which reportedly said: "You dozy cow, you should be shot."
Mr Evans later deleted the post and issued an apology on Facebook, saying that he did "did not notice the accompanying text" and had made "a genuine mistake".
The prime minister said: "When death threats were made against (Mr Farage), I stood at this despatch box and condemned them outright.
"If he has any decency or backbone, he will stand up, apologise, condemn the comments and sack the individual in his party."
The Labour leader also criticised the Greens, saying: "The Green Party's policy isn't just irresponsible, it's reprehensible, legalising cocaine, heroin, ketamine and the date rape drug, GHB, a drug which we know is used to spike drinks for women."
He said the policy would "shatter lives" and increase anti-social behaviour.
Hannah Spencer, the Green Party's Gorton and Denton by-election candidate, has previously said she thought "decriminalising is a conversation that we need to have".
Mr Polanski told The Independent: “We are confident, and have run a fantastic campaign. This is one of Labour's safest seats and if we can win here, there are no, no go areas for the Greens. Labour has blown away its core voter base to its left and that makes Starmer the worst Labour leader on record.
“What has been consistent during the campaign is that voters want an end to the dismal status quo, and the voters have tended to see that change as either coming through the Greens or through Reform but as the campaign has progressed, they have increasingly started to reject Reform's divisive candidate as just more of the same, and come over to the Greens message of hope and change.
“We are in the lead, it is close, but the polls show clearly that if you want to stop Reform, you have to vote Green.”
Labour won the seat in 2024 with a majority of 13,413 and more than half the vote, but the party's popularity has plummeted since Sir Keir entered No 10.
If Labour loses, it will be the first time in nearly 100 years that the Gorton area of Manchester has not been represented by an MP from Sir Keir’s party.
A win for Reform would bring its number of MPs in the House of Commons to nine, level with the SNP.
If the Greens win the seat, it will be the first time in history the party has won a by-election for the House of Commons. It will also be the first time the Greens have won a Commons seat in the north of England.
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