Sir Keir Starmer’s hopes of winning the keys to No 10 at next year’s general election have been given a huge boost as Labour won a “seismic” victory in the Rutherglen and Hamilton West by-election.
Polling guru Professor Sir John Curtice said the 20 per cent swing from SNP to Labour was a “remarkably good result” that put Sir Keir’s party on course to be the “dominant” force in Scotland again and win a clear majority in the Commons.
The elections expert said that if the Rutherglen result was replicated at a general election, it would see the Labour Party win an astonishing 42 seats in Scotland, and the SNP left with just six MPs.
A clear victory was seen as a crucial step in proving that Labour is on course for victory next year, and in avoiding tough questions for Sir Keir at the party’s conference, which begins on Sunday in Liverpool.
In the end, the Labour candidate, Michael Shanks, won by a much bigger margin than expected, taking more than 17,000 votes out of a total of 30,000 cast – a remarkable 58 per cent of the vote share.
Sir Keir hailed the victory as a “seismic” result, and pitched Labour as the “party of change” as he set his sights on a general election win next year.
Appearing in the constituency, Sir Keir told delighted local activists: “They said ‘You’ll never beat the SNP in Scotland,’ and Rutherglen, you did it. You blew the doors off!”
He admitted that Rutherglen was a “must-win for us”, adding: “It was a big step in the right direction ... the route to a Labour election win at the next general election runs through Scotland.”
Prof Curtice told BBC Scotland News that the “remarkably good result” was “well above the kinds of swings we’ve seen in the opinion polls in Scotland”.
Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar (right) with winner Michael Shanks— (PA)
The elections expert told the BBC: “That means the Labour vote in the constituency is almost as high as it was in 2010, before the tsunami that swept the Labour Party from virtually every constituency in Scotland.”
The professor added: “If this kind of swing were to be replicated across Scotland as a whole, you’d be talking about the Labour Party quite clearly being the dominant party north of the border.”
He said it demonstrates a momentum comparable with the run-up to Tony Blair’s 1997 landslide, explaining: “That potentially has implications for the overall outcome in the general election, because if that were to happen, they would find it easier to get an overall majority.”
Labour hopes to win around 15 to 20 seats in Scotland at the next election, up from its current haul of just one. Labour had held Rutherglen and Hamilton West in 2010, but it flipped to the SNP in 2015 on a wave of support for the party in the wake of the independence referendum. It then returned to Labour in 2017, before the SNP won it back again in 2019.
Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar said that the “seismic” result had sent a very clear message – that people are “sick of two tired, failing, incompetent governments”. He added: “Scotland will lead the way in delivering a UK-wide Labour government.”
SNP leader Humza Yousaf said the “collapse in the Tory vote which went straight to Labour” was a significant factor in the defeat, adding: “We lost this seat in 2017, and like 2019 we can win this seat back.” Mr Yousaf accepted responsibility, saying “The buck stops with me,” but also said there would be no major changes.
“We’re not thinking about standing on anything other than the SNP’s message. We will reflect, we’ll reorganise, we’ll regroup. The buck does absolutely stop with me, but I think everybody knows this particular by-election had some very difficult contextual factors around it,” he added – an apparent reference to Nicola Sturgeon’s difficulties with a police investigation into party funding.
But Mr Yousaf has only “days” to save his position as first minister following the by-election defeat, according to former leader Alex Salmond.
The Alba Party leader said the result was something the SNP had “been asking for”, telling the press: “I don’t think that quite gets the enormity of what he’s facing. In my view, Humza’s got days to save his first-ministership.”
Keir Starmer, here with Shanks, said the Rutherglen result was ‘seismic’— (PA)
Mr Yousaf’s attempts to push his party and the independence movement forward were hampered by Ms Sturgeon being arrested and questioned as part of a police investigation into her party’s finances.
The election was called amid outrage over former MP Margaret Ferrier’s breach of strict Covid regulations by travelling from Westminster to Scotland after she tested positive for the virus. Ms Ferrier was ousted when a “recall” petition was supported by her constituents.
The new MP for the area, Mr Shanks, said: “People need change from governments that have too often been distracted ... People are once again listening to the Scottish Labour Party,” adding: “Change is possible.”
Embarrassingly for the Scottish Conservatives, candidate Thomas Kerr lost his deposit – winning just 1,192 votes. He said tactical voting had “squeezed” votes since the party’s base wanted to “send a message” to the SNP.
The Scottish Conservatives came in third place, polling ahead of Scottish Liberal Democrat candidate Gloria Adebo and Scottish Green Party candidate Cameron Eadie, who secured 895 and 601 votes respectively.
Out of an electorate of 82,000, some 37 per cent turned out to cast a vote in the by-election, despite earlier fears that issues with voter ID and poor weather conditions had affected turnout.
