Keir Starmer’s allies have launched a “Stop Andy Burnham” campaign to prevent the Labour mayor from returning to parliament after the resignation of a Manchester MP triggered a byelection.
Multiple members of the party’s ruling national executive committee (NEC) predicted it would be impossible for Burnham to make it through the selection process given the number of Starmer loyalists on the body desperate to avoid a leadership challenge.
The Labour party machine sprang into action after the Guardian revealed on Thursday that Andrew Gwynne was planning to quit due to ill health, with officials and MPs warning about the financial cost and political risk of a subsequent mayoral race.
However, allies of the Greater Manchester mayor suggested there would be significant disquiet among MPs, the unions and party members should the leadership try to block him from returning to parliament, where he served as the MP for Leigh from 2001 to 2017.
Burnham has made no secret of his ambitions. He prompted outrage within No 10 and among cabinet ministers when he said in the run up to the party’s conference last year that many MPs had urged him to run for Labour leader.
He has long been believed to be seeking a return to parliament to stand for the Labour leadership if there was a challenge to Starmer, but was thought to have limited options for a byelection in the north-west of England.
The government will have to move the writ for a byelection, which two well-placed sources suggested was likely to take place before the May elections, meaning Burnham could be in place for any aftermath.
But his allies have cautioned not to overstate the extent of planning that might be under way, suggesting that he was passionate about his current job and would only return to national politics if he had something to contribute.
“People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer,” one said.
But with polls suggesting Starmer is unpopular in the country and many MPs despondent about Labour’s fate at the next election, Burnham stands out as the only senior Labour figure with positive public approval ratings.
Should Burnham decide to run, there are still multiple obstacles standing in his way. He would need to be selected by the NEC – where the odds are stacked against him – and win the byelection in Gorton and Denton against Reform UK and pro-Gaza independents, all before any potential leadership challenge.
Senior Labour figures told the Guardian that a “Stop Andy” campaign was already under way, with the party machinery tightly controlled by Morgan McSweeney, Starmer’s chief of staff, and his allies.
The prime minister himself said on Thursday that the byelection process was in the “early stages” and his MPs must stop talking about potential leadership challenges.
“My message is to my entire party, and is that every minute we waste talking about anything other than the cost of living and stability in Europe and across the globe is a wasted minute,” he told Channel 4 News.
Burnham, speaking before Gwynne confirmed he was stepping down, told reporters: “People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester and I think the [reindustrialisation] plan I put out this week shows that.”
Five members of the NEC told the Guardian they believed it would be impossible for Burnham to make it through the selection panel given the number of Starmer allies in the committee and how they could be handpicked to sit on the selection panel.
They said this was not just down to personal animosity to Burnham, but also the cost of a mayoral byelection in Greater Manchester, which would mean that about £500,000 of party funding was diverted from other races across Britain.
“It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources when we are fighting other crucial elections. It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed,” one said.
Several sources shared concerns about Nigel Farage’s party attempting to fill any vacancy created by Burnham. “What if Reform won the Greater Manchester mayoralty? It would be totemic for them: their biggest win yet. We would be mad to let that happen,” one said.
Burnham, as a publicly elected mayor, would have to secure the NEC’s permission to run. It is also possible the body could impose an all-female shortlist in order to stop his nomination.
However, one Burnham ally warned against assuming the NEC would automatically block his candidacy, even though Starmer’s team is widely thought to control it.
“I don’t think anybody wants a big fight within the NEC. That’s not where anybody wants to end up. Nobody benefits from that. But you would be unwise to second guess the NEC,” they said.
The unions are a significant force on the party’s ruling body, holding 13 out of about 40 seats. The biggest unions – Unite, Unison and the GMB – were for now keeping their counsel, although sources suggested they would be uncomfortable with anything that looked like interference from No 10.
But even with their support, two insiders suggested Burnham could still struggle to get the numbers to overrule a selection panel and get on the shortlist for the seat, clearing the NEC.
The Fire Brigades Union general secretary, Steve Wright, said: “It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked from seeking selection as Labour’s byelection candidate in this seat.
“In the event that a byelection takes place, as an affiliated union, the FBU will not stand by and allow senior Labour politicians like Andy to be carved out of this process. Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection.
“It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure to choose Labour’s candidate to fight this byelection. Anything less would be unacceptable.”
Another said that MPs and members were already concerned about the risk of destabilising the party with leadership speculation before the local and devolved elections in May. “I don’t think anybody would thank Andy for triggering more of that,” one said.
Gwynne has a 13,413 majority in the seat, which lies to the south-east of Manchester. Reform UK is likely to mount a significant challenge in any byelection, capitalising on support in the Tameside part of the constituency.
Labour believes it is on firmer ground in the larger, Greater Manchester part of the seat, although could face some pressure from pro-Gaza independents.
Should Burnham return to parliament, he would have to secure the backing of 80 Labour MPs to challenge Starmer, although the mayor – who served in Tony Blair and Gordon Brown’s governments – is viewed with scepticism by some on the backbenches.
Gwynne was said by some MPs to have reached an agreement with Burnham to allow the Greater Manchester mayor to stand in his seat after he quit, but the two are not close and both have denied any pact.
There had been speculation for months that Gwynne was trying to strike a deal with the MPs pension authority that would allow him to retire early on grounds of ill health.
Friends of the MP said that would mean he would receive a yearly payout until he reached retirement age, when he would be entitled to the full pension.
On Thursday, Gwynne confirmed that his mental health had deteriorated to such an extent that he was stepping down, triggering a byelection in his constituency.
The former minister said in a statement that while proud of his achievements in parliament, he had “suffered significant ill-health over most of the 21 years I’ve served as an MP”.
He quoted a note from his GP, who said that he was “extremely vulnerable and further stress will cause rapid deterioration”, and that he did not think he could safely return to parliament.
Gwynne added: “I wish the Labour government every success in meeting our country’s challenges head-on and providing the real change the people of Britain voted for in 2024”.
Gwynne is still subject to a parliamentary standards investigation, which was initiated last year after he was found to have been in a WhatsApp group – called Trigger Me Timbers – that shared vulgar and inflammatory comments about voters and other MPs. He was suspended from the party after the messages came to light.
