For all intents and purposes, Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha will not call an early election and will practically use up the full four-year term before dissolving the Lower House. Calling an early poll is often a sign of confidence and stability while putting it off to the last minute can be seen as timid and desperate. Nevertheless, the good news is that Thailand will have an election soon. The broader stakes and meanings of the upcoming poll are as follows.
First, the 2023 election is not a standalone event and should not be viewed merely as the cut-and-thrust of current Thai politics. Instead, the upcoming poll is the continuation of a two-decades-long contest to determine Thailand's political future. The fact that the main opposition Pheu Thai Party is on course to win again is the most likely political outcome in the past 20 years.
Pheu Thai's two precursors, the Thai Rak Thai and Palang Prachachon (People's Power) parties, were dissolved in May 2007 and December 2008, respectively. In combination, these three banners have won every Thai election from January 2001 and February 2005 to December 2007, July 2011 and March 2019. Their victory margins varied, featuring landslides in 2005 and 2011, with near-majority wins in 2001 and 2007. Only in the 2019 poll did Pheu Thai come out on top with a slimmer margin, amounting to 136 over the ruling Palang Pracharat Party (PPRP)'s 116.
