KEY POINTS
- Bloomberg's Balchunas said a late June approval is a "legit possibility"
- He, however, believes an approval around Independence Day is more likely
- The SEC has to approve issuers' S-1 filings before the funds begin trading
Following the approval of 19b-4 filings of exchanges seeking to trade and sell spot Ether (ETH) exchange-traded funds (ETFs), there is much talk about when the products will launch, and an industry expert has dropped his own prediction: late June or sometime around the U.S. Independence Day on July 4.
The recent approval of spot ETH ETFs was only for exchanges. The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has yet to approve the S-1 filings of applying issuers, including BlackRock, the world's largest asset manager.
Bloomberg analyst Eric Balchunas on Wednesday said that an "end of June" launch for the funds is "a legit possibility," but he believes a July 4 launch is more likely.
Good sign. Prob see rest roll in soon. Then prob one more round of fine-tune comments from Staff. End of June launch a legit possibility altho keeping my o/u date as July 4th https://t.co/WymshkTvat
— Eric Balchunas (@EricBalchunas) May 29, 2024
He made the projection after Phoenix News reported that BlackRock has updated its spot Ether ETF S-1 filing. For Balchunas, the update is a "good sign" and he expects other applicants to also file amendments to their filings soon. He is also expecting "one more round of fine-tune comments" from SEC staff before the funds finally get the green light for trading.
Responding to a commenter who said a June 10 launch may be possible, Balchunas said BlackRock's amended filing is not yet the final version. He also pointed out that some data was missing from the filing and there was no fee stated, which could further back the notion that another revision will come before the launch.
Balchunas' prediction comes just days after the 19b-4 approvals of the Ethereum ETFs. At the time, some crypto enthusiasts said the decision was a major milestone not just for the Ethereum blockchain but also for the digital assets sector as a whole and could lead to wider crypto adoption.
For Will Cai, Kaiko Data's Head of Indices, the approval means that "the SEC implicitly state that ETH (without staking) is a commodity rather than a security." The matter has been of contentious nature for years as the SEC under Chair Gary Gensler has not been forthcoming with its view of the world's second-largest digital asset.
Also, the road to approval of spot Ether ETFs has been more dramatic than that of spot Bitcoin ETFs. Balchunas and other experts have repeatedly pointed out that the regulatory agency has been largely silent regarding the funds as opposed to positive meetings it held with Bitcoin issuers. The regulator made a last-minute decision that ultimately shocked industry experts.
Meanwhile, other analysts have been less direct about their predictions. James Seyffart, another Bloomberg analyst, said he expects the Ether ETFs to begin trading in a "couple weeks but could take longer," considering the process historically takes months.
